Pat MacNeill retweeted
Took a B12 vitamin this morning in hopes it not only solves all of the issues I currently have internally but but also globally, reaching people in all corners of the world
Pat MacNeill retweeted
Germany has a town on the Moselle River where vineyards cover the hills and a castle overlooks the old streets.
It's called Cochem.
You could spend the morning wandering through town, the afternoon exploring the castle, and the evening enjoying a meal beside the river.
That sounds like a GREAT day to me.
Pat MacNeill retweeted
PREMIER: Wall Street’s Biggest Gamble Yet.
The culmination of my grueling work on private credit and insurance so far: what I warned about, what happened, and what comes next.
A must-watch. A must-share. I promise it’s worth your time.
youtu.be/iaY1BWNkZ1c?si=2qKA… via @YouTube
The appreciation of $UPST share price will not start because of a logical analysis - but by forced covering of the shares sold short as hedge funds have their positions unwound. Only afterwards will investors really look into the company to understand the fundamentals.
28,569,957 shares of Upstart are sold short (at 9/30/26)
2,682,062 shares traded today
I believe short sellers have reached their limit. Time will tell. $UPST
How many shares of $UPST was VARA short? As these massive trades unwind it would be nice to be able to see their short books.
VARA AI Fund had 9 employees and about $26.4B under management at the end of June, 16 months after launching its hedge fund.
Rumor going around today that it blew up.
Their 3/31 13F book at today’s prices is $13.1B across 60 names.
$NBIS $1.28B
$BE $1.27B
$LITE $1.03B
$CRWV $889M
$STX $728M
$VRT $720M
$WDC $624M
$CLS $537M
$COHR $492M
$FIX $426M
On this day exactly 5 years ago $UPST closed at $390. Some perspective for the move today.
Upstart short sellers are playing musical chairs. How many sellers can stay short as liquidity rotates out of AI and into Fintech? On the other side, Upstart will be a much stronger company with the ability to grow faster than its competitors. $UPST
The move today is driven by short covering. Much bigger gains will come as people wake up to their profitability and growth potential. At that point shorts will have to pay up a lot more to exit their positions. $UPST
Pat MacNeill retweeted
There’s been a lot of fear making most of the noise around here. So I’ll go ahead and say what’s not in style right now:
- I am continuing to accumulate shares in $UPST heavily at these prices, and remain impressed by the company’s performance in 2026.
- I expect the market to regain trust in management within 1-2 quarters. We are already well into a new era of excellent execution. Profitable growth + risk separation in any macro speaks for itself. Expectations are in the dirt, look at multiples here relative to competitors. Short sellers are in for a rough ride.
- Upstart has already won in lending (massive TAM, deep moats). No other company can catch up on their tech advantage, and nobody is even trying. It is amazing to me the degree to which this is not yet recognized.
- The primary *legitimate* bear case is that lending as an industry is over post-AGI if it becomes impossible to predict defaults, or fast-rising rates + usury laws artificially constrain demand. But this explains ~0% of the short interest; nobody is trading on this thesis, I’d guess they won’t for 12-18 months at least.
- (If you take the above seriously, you could just take out a big Upstart loan to lock in rates, and do some AI infra investing)
- Beyond that, this is a generational buy. Within the logic of Wall Street, this will become consensus once reflexivity kicks in going the other direction. Now is the window to front run that.
Also — i think neversleep is hilarious, and am very glad to have him as a counterparty!
Pat MacNeill retweeted
#Ostuni al tramonto
🧡🍀 🧡 – at Naples, Campania
Pat MacNeill retweeted
Borghi d'Italia:#Todi in provincia di Perugia 🌝 – at Naples, Campania
































