Russian foreign, security and military policy. Senior Fellow, SWP (@SWPBerlin). All views are personal.
Berlin, Deutschland
Joined April 2021
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Margarete Klein retweeted
Back in November 2024 — and even until earlier this year — my analysis was that, while Trump was willing to sell out Ukraine, the payoff from normalizing relations with Russia was insufficient to cover the costs of capitulation.
I’m afraid the politics have shifted.
/1
Margarete Klein retweeted
What’s worse, every Ukrainian hit on a Russian refinery will now be framed as an act against US interests. So this is just the umpteenth reminder that Trump is not on Ukraine’s side. European allies take notice, finally.
Russia’s business carrot for Trump brings first effect.
Here is a quick explainer of why Trump-Putin diesel deal is a propaganda win for Russia and no real result for the US.
Trump agreed with Putin on deliveries of 0.8 mln tons of Russian diesel to the US (under a sanctions exemption) by November, and another 4 mln tons by April 7, 2027. Trump wants to lower high US diesel prices before the midterm elections.
Paradoxically, Russia itself faces a diesel problem: Ukraine’s regular attacks on its refineries have cut its output by about a third.
In July–September alone, Russia imported around 0.6 mln tons of diesel from Belarus and at least 176k tons from South Korea.
Putin’s decision to export diesel to the US:
👉is an investment in his relations with Trump
👉will pressure Ukraine not to hit Russian refineries
👉is a breach in the sanctions regime on Russia.
The US consumes around 15 mln tons monthly, so 300k tons is only 2% and 500k tons 3.3% of US consumption.
Margarete Klein retweeted
Power is out across Ukraine's capital after Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. The Kyiv metro halted operations. Electric trolley buses stopped working and are parked on roadsides. There are no street lights. This is what it looks like in central Shevchenko Park right now.
Read this from @MassDara !
I haven’t seen the plan described in this article (although I want to) but I feel confident about its content and what’s next. Russian strategy has discussed for 10+ years what we are seeing now as strikes. A 🧵 on the calculated cruelty in the strategy:
nytimes.com/2026/10/02/world…
Margarete Klein retweeted
Opinion: Women all over the world are devouring romantic stories involving sexy, powerful, sometimes supernatural men. Russian women have developed an appetite for generals and commanders in particular, write Tatiana Tatarinova and Alexandra Nikolaevna.
themoscowtimes.com/2026/09/2…
Margarete Klein retweeted
Since the 2022 "partial" mobilization, Russia has used pressure and coercion to keep recruits flowing to the front lines in Ukraine, allowing the Kremlin to avoid another nationwide call-up.
themoscowtimes.com/2024/05/2…
Margarete Klein retweeted
A 54-year-old man in Russia’s Irkutsk region was allegedly held, plied with alcohol, and forced to sign papers for contract service. At the enlistment office, he was denied his glasses. His wife took him home when he was let out to smoke. meduza.io/en/news/2026/09/28…
Margarete Klein retweeted
Russian military increased by 15,000 since July, per new edict. Overall billets: 1,550,500. Russia increased force size four times in 2026 (50k total since Jan) . Half of the big mobilization/expansion numbers of 2022-24, but it’s being done in frequent smaller increments in 2026
Margarete Klein retweeted
Activists told The Moscow Times that the renewed speculation about another mobilization “echoes with pain” — and that a new call-up could be faster and harder to evade than the one in 2022. themoscowtimes.com/2026/09/2…
Margarete Klein retweeted
Russian advert for recruiting FPV pilots: promises made to work 2 days on - 2 days off, in 12 hour shifts; FPV technicians get (up to) 513K rubles ($6K) per month that includes base salary and bonuses, 565K rubles for FPV pilots, and 665K rubles for a FPV crew commander. t.me/dronesrussia/26935
Margarete Klein retweeted
New round of mobilization would add strain to Russian political system, but on its own is unlikely to trigger a marked increase in protest activity
ridl.io/mobilization-after-t…
Margarete Klein retweeted
Russian émigré writer Dmitry Glukhovsky’s new novel follows a pregnant woman racing to marry her wounded soldier boyfriend for benefits. Meduza’s critic says it is not just about the Russians who stayed, but everyone adapting to the war in Ukraine. meduza.io/en/feature/2026/09…
Margarete Klein retweeted
Insightful analysis: The New Signature Wounds: How Drone Warfare Is Reshaping the Injuries Veterans Bring Home warontherocks.com/the-new-si…
Margarete Klein retweeted
Moscow is turning universities into drone pipelines: train engineers, build UAVs on campus, recruit operators from lecture halls.
Mandatory courses. Extra admission points. Student production. Campus recruitment.
How Russia is militarizing higher ed:
ridl.io/moscow-s-three-unive…
Margarete Klein retweeted
For those who didn't catch it, recommend you read our 2500 word wake-up-call on Ukraine.
A team effort with @ARobertsjourno @COdendahl and our new defence editor Alex Turner.
economist.com/briefing/2026/…
Neue Mobilmachung in Russland? - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik share.google/E2lBaFJaSlF2Em5…
Wie kann Putin nach der Dumawahl mehr Personal fuer den Krieg mobilisieren: mehr Geld und Druck, neue Teilmobilmachung oder Nutzung der Reserve?
Margarete Klein retweeted
First copy of my new book @CHBeckLiteratur has arrived - official release on 24 Sept. It‘s about German society‘s (mis)perceptions of #Russia - and why perceptions matter. For now only in German.
