Scotland's 3-4-1-2 I know it's very early days and we've just played against a top side for 80 mins with 10 men, but there's a few things making me question if this system is a good fit: 1. Centre-Back's Pace For me if you're going to play this front foot, high-press system you need to have at least some sort of pace across the backline. I think this system can maybe be effective against weaker sides who lack the speed or quality to get the balls in behind, but as seen tonight we can get punished and quite easily to be honest. I'm just unconvinced the personnel fits the philosophy. 2. The Press Personally I like the sort of modern, high-energy, high pressing systems that are so exciting to watch - but they take time to implement. My worry here is that at international level there's just isn't sufficient time on the training ground to really nail down the tactical nuances required individually to make it as effective as it can be. 3. Ben Gannon-Doak I have absolutely no doubt Gannon-Doak can put a shift in at wing back when needed, even for his cameo against Slovenia I thought he looked threatening. But you're just not going to get the absolute best out of him shoehorning him into the side and without him, we just have such little pace to really stretch defences. By playing the wing-backs there's so much onus on Robbo/Hickey/Paterson, none of which have had a particularly stellar start to the season. Maybe I'm just being too reactionary after a pretty dismal second-half performance, but is this the system to get the best out of our players? I'm yet to be convinced. Let me know your thoughts below 👇

A respectable performance from Scotland given the circumstances. Their forwards look very sharp but we've limited their chances well. We need a bit more quality with the final pass cause we're getting into promising positions. McBurnie been excellent up top himself!

Thank you for reading! If you want to read more on how Slovenia set up including in possession, out of possession and transitions, a full analysis can be found here: mbirdanalysis.substack.com/p…

Conclusion Before summarising what this all means for Scotland, an important caveat to this entire analysis is that this will be Slovenia’s first competitive game in charge under Boštjan Cesar so it’s really difficult to predict how they’ll set up. They did carry on with a 5 at the back formation in their friendlies earlier this year, but could just as easily switch to a back 4 and play two up top. However, I do think a lot of the fundamentals and patterns of play will remain the same. Being at home against a Scotland side who are very much at the early stages of a revamp, both tactically and personnel wise, I wouldn’t be surprised if Slovenia came out all guns blazing. Similar to how they started against Hungary, they might look to spook Scotland early with their press, harassing Scotland’s backline deep inside their half forcing turnovers. I suspect this won’t last too long as Slovenia naturally drop back into their structure. Personally if Slovenia do set up this way I would very much be in favour of Scotland sticking with this 4-2-3-1 formation, but with two outright wingers. Not only does this provide a little bit of protection if Slovenia overload the wide areas, but the pace of each winger could be crucial in exploiting spaces left out wide and in behind. Scotland’s triangle in midfield can also overrun their midfield pairing, including finding spaces between the lines. Most importantly I want to see Scotland play as a unit. Individually to a man, I think Scotland comfortably have more quality across the pitch but that means nothing if we don’t operate as a team. I suspect tactically there will be quite the shift from how Scotland played under Clarke and I want to see the players really buy into it. It’s not something that’s going to happen overnight, but this is a good a time as any to start. Stick to the game plan, stay patient, and take our chances.

Key Players Žan Vipotnik - With Benjamin Šeško still unavailable to Boštjan Cesar, Swansea City striker Vipotnik could be leading the line on Saturday afternoon. After a stellar season last year, picking up Swansea’s Player of the Year award and finishing the Championship’s top goalscorer, there’s no doubting his ability. His work-rate for his nation is fantastic, triggering the team press from high up the pitch. When Slovenia are in possession, he’s the out ball and thrives with his back to goal. Keeping him quiet will be crucial to nullifying Slovenia’s attack. Danijel Sturm - The right footed left winger appears so crucial to how effective this Slovenia team can be. He naturally likes to tuck inside but he’s given a licence to roam freely and exploit any spaces he can find, popping up in dangerous areas all over the park. His free role also gives left wing back Erik Janza plenty of space to exploit near the touchline. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in his 10 caps so far for Slovenia.

Vulnerabilities Defence & Midfield Disconnect - When Slovenia do engage their press, it’s a collective effort between their striker, midfield, and sometimes wing backs. What this can do is create a large space right infront of the three centre halves. This creates a chain of issues for Slovenia: if an opposing striker drops in, a Slovenia centre half will always go with him to ensure he can’t turn if he gets the ball, leaving a space behind also exploitable by an inverting winger or other centre forward. The difficulty is being able to play the penetrating pass either into the space or the gap in behind with Slovenia pressing at this point. The higher the team press, the bigger the gaps are to exploit. Recovery in Wide Areas - With Slovenia willing to invert their wide midfielders and push wing backs forward, when they lose possession they’re vulnerable to counter attacks particularly out wide. Outside centre halves will look to cover as the wing backs recover back into position, but they can be caught out by some clinical transitional play by their opponents. On a couple of occasions there was some hesitation between centre back and wing back, neither taking responsibility for the space leading to some suspect defending. Attacking Threat - more of a general weakness than a vulnerability, but if the opposition can defend the wide areas and their box well, Slovenia lack a creative back up plan in how to create chances - which is likely why they’re willing to concede possession for the most part. Their central midfielders don’t necessarily look like creative outlets so the onus stays on the wide men unless there are personnel changes - which is entirely possible.

Strengths Defensive Solidity - Despite having conceded in each of Boštjan Cesar’s games in charge, Slovenia don’t look like a team who will be giving up too many clear cut chances, especially if sitting in their low block. They’re compact and well organised, meaning their opposition often end up with more possession as they move the ball from side to side finding difficulty playing through Slovenia’s banks of 5 and 4. Even with spaces they do leave, particularly in transition, just through having 3 centre halves they can usually deal with it. Directness - Slovenia aren’t really a team to mess about with the ball too much at the back. They might play one or two short passes between goalkeeper and centre halves to lure the press, but at the flick of a switch they’ll go direct to their centre forward and have the bodies around him, with inverted wide midfielders and advanced wing backs and central midfielders, to fight for the second balls - which they do exceptionally well. Wide Overloads - Between wing backs, wide midfielders, and sometimes central midfielders, Slovenia are well versed on how to create chances from wide areas. Not only do their wing backs show variations between underlapping and overlapping runs, unpredictable and tricky to defend, but they also vary between hitting early crosses, working the ball into the box from wide, and getting to the byline. A majority of Slovenia’s chances in front of goal stem from wide areas.

Formation & Tactical Identity In 3 out of the 4 games under Cesar, Slovenia have set up in a flexible 5-4-1 formation - providing a solid defensive base first and foremost but allowing for tactical adaptability through wide midfielders and wing backs pushing up to press more aggressively and be more on the front foot. Slovenia aren’t a side who aim to dominate possession, placing more emphasis on quick vertical play and creating from the wide areas. Specifically, they regularly engage their centre forward early and directly to play off second balls, or exploit wide areas with underlapping and overlapping wing backs.

Background Following a winless World Cup 2026 qualification campaign, former Slovenia boss Matjaž Kek unsurprisingly left his post by mutual consent but was swiftly replaced by Boštjan Cesar - Slovenia’s most capped player of all time. Slovenia have yet to play a competitive game under Cesar, but of the 4 friendlies played this year they suffered defeats to Hungary and Croatia, either side of a win against Montenegro and a draw versus Cyprus. Currently ranked 56th in the FIFA World Ranking, 14 places below Scotland (42nd), Slovenia will be looking for a strong start at home but will be without talisman Benjamin Šeško as he continues to struggle with a shin injury lingering from last season.

🇸🇮 v 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 | What to Expect From Slovenia A new look Scotland squad will travel to Ljubljana to face Slovenia in Sébastien Pocognoli’s first game in charge. With Slovenia a bit of an unknown quantity, I’ve tried to dissect what Scotland need to do to win.

Excited to see how he gets on, i’ve not actually watched much of him tbh!

I'm a big fan of this, seems to have got the balance between old and new faces spot on. If I'm being picky would liked to have seen Calvin Miller in there but can't have many complaints. Excited to see how Pocognoli can get these boys playing 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

For anyone looking to see what Luis Binks is all about: xitter.cf/MBirdAnalysis/status/2…

💡 Conclusion: I feel over recent years, Scotland have struggled a bit trying to find the right blend of centre halves who are solid outright defenders but also tidy on the ball. For me, Luis Binks is both. Defensively he's strong, displays good positioning and spatial awareness, but above all excels in the air. With the ball at his feet he shows a good range of passing, likes to get it forward, remains composed in tricky situations, and can drive with the ball at his feet. An exceptionally strong combination of skillsets. The main thing that can hold him back is his lack of pace and mobility. Particularly against teams with quick forwards who look to get in behind would be my concern, certainly not a deal breaker but something Pocognoli would need to be mindful of. I think I'd probably prefer to see Binks in a back 3, but he doesn't seem to have much of an issue playing in a back 4 with Brøndby that's for sure. On that, Binks is already successfully operating in a Brøndby system which I suspect some aspects of which could mirror what many expect of Pocognoli's Scotland side, so his familiarity could allow him to seamlessly slot in. Overall, Luis Binks is an excellent centre-half option to bolster the Scotland defence and is absolutely worthy of a call-up to see what he's all about.

❓ Reservations: • Mobility - whilst Binks can get around the pitch no problem, he's not blessed with much pace in a straight line so can be exposed by through balls in behind. This also wasn't helped by how high a line Brøndby were playing from the footage I watched. With how marauding Andy Robertson can be, I'd have some concerns over how well Binks could cover that area left behind. That said, Binks' positional awareness is strong so he knows how to negate his lack of recovery speed as much as possible. • Discipline - Being an aggressive centre-half, Binks gets carded a lot. Last season he picked up 12 bookings (all competitions) and faced two separate yellow card suspensions. This season after just 7 games, he's already been booked 4 times and is suspended for their game this evening. • Passing Decision-Making - Binks' range of passing and execution is arguably his greatest strength, but also highlights a real area for development - choosing the right pass at the right time. Binks can be guilty of trying to force passes or playing long diagonals when he doesn't necessarily need to leading to losing possession. It is a tough balance to get right when taking on that role of a ball-playing centre-back but one he'll likely fine tune the more experienced he gets.

⭐️ What He Offers Pocognoli: • Ball-Playing - with how comfortable Binks is in possession, he can be a real asset in getting Scotland forward and kickstarting attacks. He's very composed but not in a nonchalant kind of way, looking to keep the ball even in difficult circumstances rarely punting it long to nobody. That said, he does have a long switch in his locker, and averages 4.14 accurate long balls p90. • Aerial Ability - Being 6ft 3, it's probably no surprise how well Binks does when contesting in the air. It's not just the sheer volume of aerial duels he wins, but how efficient he is too. Physically he's very strong and knows how to use his body well, combine that with an impressive vertical leap it makes him the favourite to win most aerial duels. He also finds teammates surprisingly well from headers, keeping possession often seemingly thinking about more than just winning the header but also the aftermath. • Leadership - even from last season before being made captain, Binks' leadership qualities were clear to see - constantly coaching players around him, giving encouragement, and barking at teammates when necessary. Having been named captain this season, it's clear the positive effect he must have in the changing room. In my opinion, his leadership isn't a quality that should be overlooked with some of the current NT leaders approaching the latter stages of their career.

🧩 Role & Style: Being left-footed, Binks is deployed on the left side of a centre-back pairing in Brøndby's commonly used 4-2-3-1 formation. He was used on the left of a back 3 in the early stages of last season so does have experience in that role. Binks has only ever been used as a centre-back as far as I can tell. Brøndby appear to enjoy playing out from the back, placing a significant emphasis on Binks' ability in build-up play. He's willing to take the ball short from goal-kicks and look to move it forward quickly, picking a pass under pressure or carrying the ball himself. Binks can recycle possession when necessary, but he generally does so with tempo to his play. The Danish outfit look to play a high line, squeezing the game with Binks showing a real tactical awareness of when to aggressively shadow strikers dropping into spaces or when to step off. When defending onrushing attackers, Binks can often opt against engaging, instead jockeying to buy players time to recover.

🏠 Background: Despite being born in England, Binks is eligible to play for Scotland through his grandfather who hails from Dunbar. He's represented both countries at various points in his youth career. Binks spent the entirety of his youth at Tottenham's academy, spending 13 years there after joining aged six. In search of first team football, he joined up with Thierry Henry at MLS side Montreal Impact but signed for Bologna six months later. His playing time at Bologna was limited, and instead spent much of his time out on loan, including successful loan spells at Como and then Coventry City - the latter then making his loan move permanent. Binks then went on to sign a 5-year-deal with Danish outfit Brøndby IF at the start of the 25/26 season, where he quickly became a regular starter playing 90 minutes week in week out. He was then named captain ahead of the 26/27 season.