https://xitter.cf/t.co/lraSjbQ84H https://xitter.cf/t.co/xtBcmekGzq

Joined January 2020
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they're pretty generous limits given the csv exports warning comes once you hit 150 in a 10m period 1st time you hit 220 in 10 minutes: blocked for 10 minutes after that, escalating measures escalation is pretty quick
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just FYI: with all the added stuff on the site and (almost) everything being exportable by .CSV, there are rate limits in place Stats pages: 30/minute, 600/day CSV exports: 3/minute, 40/day Page loads: 200/10 minutes
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- the accuracy % on Own and DK pts will be posted publicly at some point in late November and will be updated daily except for the nights i forget to download live contest .csvs in time (which has only happened once when i was at the bar)
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- compared to industry projections in terms of DK points, ranking is tied w/ industry (r=0.387) and the average miss is 4.83 compared to industry 5.00 - i've got scheduled runs in November at the 400 game mark that should tighten these up
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- continue to iterate on own% projections and DK projections as the sample grows - compared to industry projections the own% are right in line on players above 3% (r=0.491 on big slates, r=0.823 on small slates; r=0.606 overall vs industry 0.557) but goalies are my biggest issue
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- can watch every goal back on the game recaps/player cards (you'd want an adblocker unfortunately, i can't bypass the 15s NHL ad because the site's not a Google advertiser)
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- player v player comparison cards
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- team cards (side note from this example, as a Sens fan...Sam Ersson wtf dawg)
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- game previews (basically all the shit from the main page but re-packaged in a per-game setup, with rankings/bets/etc. all together)
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a few more changes to the site: - scoreboard at the top of the page, resets at 1pm (or 12pm if there's a 12pm game) - game recaps (mostly data but also a look back at what the site got right/wrong); matrix shift chart with teammates and opposition
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impact rating! based on RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) from the NBA and Evolving Wild for the NHL, gives every player an impact rating based on the pbp data
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LM data! all the data that the site uses for projections/betting etc. is now available on the site, built directly from pbp instead of ported from other sources indiv player stats, team stats, full line stats, wowy line stats, goalies, goal types
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sim builder! "Pick a game and add legs; switch games and keep adding. Each game is played 10,000 times with the betting model, down to who scores and assists, so legs on the same game are priced together, and separate games are multiplied."
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props! props now include goals, assists, points, blocked shots in addition to shots on goal & saves that were there already goals are only graded vs. Pinnacle's 2-sided lines, because one-sided Yes bets are a scam
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betting changes! model's now backtested through 2009-26, with the raw model results as well as the raw model + rules i created based on the data learned through backtesting (pic: 1st is with learning, 2nd is with no hindsight)
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example from tonight: MTL3's most common matchup is actually opp. 2nd line, but the difference is 40% vs. 37% MTL2's most common matchup is 54% vs. opp 2nd line, so they officially get the matchup vs. SJ2 and MTL3 slides to SJ3 impacted lines get a * with the breakdown
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line matching changes! matchups now gets fed automatically so you don't have to rely on me manually adjusting them every five games upside - way, way more accurate on matchups downside - sometimes there's overlap on matchups, in which case lines will go to their second matchup
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first minor one: pages load faster - about 3x faster depending on the page second minor change: menu cleanups so the site's a lil more organized third minor change: csv exports for more sections fourth minor change: bankroll staking to record bets
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