Florida Early Mail and In Person Vote Update 10/20: For right now I will continue to separate the mail and early vote, just so we can keep following it in Florida since both will be substantial parts of the early vote here. For mail Republicans gained 0.21% against Democrats in total share, showing that they are increasing their rate of return over Democrats. I think we will continue to see this happen, as it is becoming very clear Democrats are switching the method of their vote. This would make sense given what we saw in the in person early vote (IPEV) yesterday. Democrats showed up in force, basically tying Republicans in the in person vote. There was about 171K votes yesterday, Republicans barely won 40.51% to 40.14%. This was a substantial shift from prior elections (about 19% from 2022) BUT if you take into account he shift in the mail then what we have seen overall is less substantial shift to Democrats (about a 3% shift). Currently Democrats have a 52,778 lead with all methods of early voting over Republicans, 41.92% to 37.14%. Keep an eye out today on how Democrats do in the early vote. They came out the gate hot but can they sustain it? Republicans maintain a large registration advantage and if prior history follows, they should be able to start grinding out a lead at some point. Obviously if that does not happen then Republicans will be looking at problems in Florida, but I would not expect that at all.