Postdoc @BrownWatson | @Duke PhD | former RA @BrookingsInst & girls coach @WilsonCrewDC. Domestic politics of USFP, Congress, and Public Opinion.
Providence, RI
Joined May 2015
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Honored and grateful to the @FPA_ISA team for this recognition!
1/ Excited to announce a new paper on credibility in IR in @The_JOP with @Trent_Oll and @sojinlee123!
The intuition here is that observers might be able to suss out what seem like 'mistaken' signals of resolve. A thread...
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10…
6/ We think our findings have a few implications—one is that the 'folk' version of deterrence theory to which citizens on average subscribe may be surprisingly urbane. A second is that leaders seeking credibility might take care to convey deliberation as well as determination.
7/end. Thanks go to friends and colleagues @DukePoliSci for lots of terrific guidance (and funding)!
Andrew Kenealy retweeted
"Taken together, these three accessible and politically viable messaging approaches—strength in numbers; policy, not president; and move first and persist—might help legislators amplify their influence over public opinion and, in turn, over U.S. foreign policy," writes @KenealyAM.
A bit belated to post this (is anyone still on here?), but I defended last month. I'm grateful to my mentors and friends @DukePoliSci and in Durham, whom I will miss. Very excited (and, again, grateful) for the next step: a postdoc at @Watson_School.
Trump has overridden a remarkable range of political norms. Yet Patrick and I show that, at least when it comes to bombing Iran, Trump largely did what Congress wanted. For better or for worse, there’s been overwhelming R and even some limited D support.
Check out @KenealyAM and my new Lawfare piece using AI to measure lawmaker sentiment toward the Iran strikes last month. Punchline: more support than you might have imagined, both before and after.
Andrew Kenealy retweeted
Questions about how the “war powers” work in practice? Check out my piece in @apsrjournal. TL;DR President is far more constrained by Congress that usually realized.
Just published on APSR First View: War and Responsibility by M. PATRICK HULME (@mphulme ) cambridge.org/core/journals/…
I'm also excited that a paper I wrote on the connections between domestic politics & IR is now published in @JPR_journal! It presents the 'democratic patience', and finds that democracies are slower to resort to violence during interstate crises.
doi.org/10.1177/002234332412…
The article theoretically specifies why we might observe such a phenomenon, tests the association between democratic political institutions and crisis response timing, and illustrates the mechanisms that it proposes drive the association with two brief case studies.
I owe thanks to mentors here at @DukePoliSci, especially @rmmyrick91 and @kcbeardsley!
They engaged with dissidents, observed protests, dangled carrots & threatened sticks towards the Czechoslovak communist gov, actively reported on developments to Washington, and (naturally) fought some inter-agency battles along the way.
This paper was accepted in 2019 and based on research I did before grad school with @NormEisen at @BrookingsInst, so I'm very glad that it is now available!
I owe thanks to Simon Miles, @secolbourn, folks at @AWConsortium, @MikulasPesta, @Kelsey_Landau, and the many dedicated public servants & dissidents who spent time sharing their recollections.