Good morning , and welcome to US CPI day. Consensus forecasts call for another step up in annual headline inflation, alongside a continued relatively muted core. These numbers take on added importance as more analysts assess the possibility of future, non-energy-related inflation building in the pipeline. As regards today's forecasts, the consensus is for a 0.5% monthly increase in headline CPI for May. This is slightly lower than April's 0.6% and would be accompanied by a 4.2% annual inflation. The monthly increase in core CPI is expected to edge down from 0.4% to 0.3%, putting annual core inflation at 2.9%. As I look at the details of today's data release, my focus will be assessing the extent to which headline inflation is spilling into core three months after the initial surge in energy prices; or, to put it another way, the possibility of broader inflationary pressures if/when the energy shock fades. This would set the stage for two equally tricky analyses: the implications for corporate pricing strategies and demand absorption. #economy #markets #inflation #cpi #energy #oil