https://xitter.cf/t.co/JsCXkq1i8L - https://xitter.cf/t.co/Kr8X18WdOr - @forecastfactory - @kenpomgolf

Salt Lake City, UT
Joined January 2010
The field for the NCAA hockey tournament was announced on Sunday and it was totally determined by a rating system. Amazing concept! And sad that basketball refuses to consider it. startribune.com/ncaa-mens-ho…
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Hey, there are job openings for data scientist positions with the Utah Jazz. If you want to work with smart people on fun projects, you should apply! teamworkonline.com/basketbal…
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Ken Pomeroy retweeted
Want to level up your knowledge of basketball analytics and strategy? The Final Four sale for our course with @kenpomeroy and @eric_shap ends soon. Use code "F4" at checkout for $50 off Learn more at bballanalytics.com
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John just calls it a blog, but the kids need to know that 20 years ago he spawned a whole generation of smarter Big Ten fans (which years later, continues to fuel my subscription numbers). Amazing times. bigtenwonk.blogspot.com/
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Here is @hoopvision68 (5 YEARS AGO) arguing to use WAB over quadrants. If you want to understand WAB, this is a good place to start. youtu.be/dG_NpOEI8_Q?si=DqJr…
Can somebody smarter than me break down what this means for the 2024-25 NCAA Tournament? (Yes I already read all the replies and the quote tweets). - How does Bart T calculate his rankings? - How is he different from Kenny P? - How is wins above bubble calculated? Cheers.
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Congrats to Jordan who is one of most responsible and entertaining users of analytics in the field. Well deserved and a great add for Jans.
Mississippi State's Chris Jans is hiring Hoop Vision's Jordan Sperber to his staff, source told @TheFieldOf68. Sperber worked for Jans for one season at New Mexico State as video coordinator. Sperber has done an incredible job with Hoop Vision since starting it a handful of years ago, putting out terrific content and also consulting with college and NBA teams.
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Great piece in today's @washingtonpost on the exceptional heatwave sweeping the world this month. This is just a taste of what will become a regular occurrence if we do not urgently reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases: washingtonpost.com/climate-e…
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In '92, 5-9 Iowa State got in. There is some nostalgic idea that only the best P6 teams used to get in. But it's not true. Mediocre P6 teams got in, there were just fewer of them available so plenty of room for the best MM at-larges. That is no longer the case. Need to expand.
Replying to @kenpomeroy
sports-reference.com/cbb/sea… A look at 1991 for example. 56 power conference teams. 30 got in the field. Three with below-.500 records. By comparison, I believe there were 79 power conference teams of which 35 made the field and two were sub-.500.
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Access has improved for P5 teams as a whole because there are more of them. Creighton, Butler, Houston, BYU are now P5. It hasn't changed for individual teams. 16-12 Kentucky made the '85 tourney. 18-13 (6-8) Maryland was a 5-seed(!) in 86. 17-12 (6-8) Maryland was a 7 in '88
Replying to @MattNorlander
The heart of the issue is "access" for high-major programs, which is also misleading. Between conference expansion, reduction of non-con road games and metrics working in their favor, it's just as inclusive now for power-conf teams as it's ever been. I think Ken would agree.
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What's changed is there's less access for MM at-larges. Expanding the tourney helps with that. Anti-expansion = anti-Robbie Avila. (On a percentage basis, I'd bet that fewer sub-.500 P5 teams get in now than in the 80s but one of you nerds should graph it up and report back.)
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In 1985, 64 (22.8%) of 280 teams made the tourney. In 2024, 68 (19.4%) of 351 teams made it. The tournament is more exclusive than it's been since 1984. Nothing's going to lose meaning by adding a few teams.
Replying to @kenpomeroy
We are getting to a point where making the tournament has no meaning to it. Also destroys other tournaments relevancy.
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RIP my mentions, but 76 teams is totally responsible expansion and I don't understand why people are so hostile to it. It would have been cool to have had Indiana State in last season's tourney. So what if it comes with St. John's and Oklahoma joining them.
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Hole average is cool but hole variance tells you where a golf tournament has the best chance of being won or lost. 8/9/10 has been serving up a variety of outcomes all week at No. 2.
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In what is undoubtedly the most exciting news of the day, I’m pleased to announce our next discord exclusive AMA with the one and only @kenpomeroy! Join us Monday, June 10th at 8pmEST for a live Q&A session with the king of college hoops analytics. Link: launchpass.com/the-burner/di…
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Ooh. Good stuff.
Replying to @kenpomeroy
I only have full pbp across the last 3 seasons, so I won't pretend that a larger sample size wouldn't help more. But while not as extreme as the NBA, does seem to be a dip once you get under 5 seconds
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Feels like this would be a flat line in college. Somebody prove me wrong.
When do teams start intentionally missing a free throw when trailing by two late in the game? It looks like it starts around the 5 second mark.
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Ken Pomeroy retweeted
On endgame strategy in the NBA, informed by 27 years of play by play data. When trailing late in the game, do teams win more often when attempting 2s or 3s? When trailing by 3 late in the game, teams that attempt 3s have a demonstrably higher win percentage:
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