Starkey retweeted
$CIFR - Added shares today.
$CIFR - Target box hit today. ✅
Down big today, but as I posted just a few days ago, further downside was to be expected.
News like today’s just tends to accelerate the primary trend.
⚪️Path
My primary expectation is a bottom somewhere between $11.50 and $6.50.
The classic target is $9.58.
⛔️ $6.50 better hold.
Otherwise, things could get very ugly, with the 0.887 Fib sitting at $3.41.
Starkey retweeted
$CIFR $9.48 (-4.68%)
The King is now a fast $10 just above the price. It’s almost 3x bigger than the next level, so it pulls up, but in a jumpy way. There’s almost no cushion below until the fast $9.
Watch: $12 / $11 / $10.50 / $10 King / $9
Most likely: swings between $9 and $10.50, with a pull back toward $10
Wrong if: closes below $9
VEX: Support at $10.50 (Oct 23) and $15. A spike adds selling at $10, $11 and $13.
CSP (Oct 23): No. Fast $9.50 is in the path down.
CC (Oct 23): No. Fast $10 and $11 are in the path up.
Starkey retweeted
$IREN vs $CIFR have two very different but also similar technical structures. Both have endured substantial corrections amid the broader weakness in AI infrastructure, but an important distinction in where each sits relative to its long-term technical structure.
$IREN hit its macro 1.272 fib at $69 before this correction. A correction of this magnitude isn't particularly unusual, especially following the first test of an important macro extension.
$CIFR fell short of its 1.272 extension at $42 and has now retraced to its 0.887 fib which converges with a significant historical demand zone and the vicinity of its longer-term ascending trendline.
From a purely technical perspective, CIFR's is already testing, and marginally undercutting, an area of support that IREN has yet to revisit on a comparable basis.
For IREN, that equivalent 0.887 retracement sits near $19.40, roughly 30% below current levels, and coincides with the broader trendline structure I've drawn.
That doesn't mean IREN needs to trade there. But it illustrates why I see a more immediately identifiable technical risk/reward setup developing in CIFR.
Sentiment across AI infrastructure has deteriorated considerably, and we're seeing the kind of fear and volatility that historically accompanies important inflection points.
But the indicators I track aren't yet suggesting that the selling is conclusively over. Both of these have lost important monthly EMAs like the 21m EMA which in my experience ends a trend. IREN would need to reclaim $34 by month-end and CIFR $13. Until that happens, one needs to remain open to further weakness in months ahead, even if we experience a sharp relief rally.
And yet, when I consider what these businesses are building, their expanding contractual commitments, and the earnings potential emerging over the next 12-18 months, it's difficult not to be interested at these prices.
It reminds me of April 2025, when several names across the sector lost important technical levels, sentiment collapsed, and what appeared to be a breakdown ultimately developed into one of the more attractive entry opportunities of the cycle. I've followed this sector long enough to recognize that the greatest asymmetries come when the prevailing narrative becomes overwhelmingly negative and price begins discounting outcomes considerably worse than what the underlying fundamentals are showing.
It's not supposed to be comfortable. But I do think we're in an area where the longer-term risk/reward is becoming increasingly compelling, particularly for investors who can look beyond the next several months.
Just be disciplined in your accumulation, position sizing, and be patient.
Starkey retweeted
My thoughts on $CIFR and AI data centers generally today:
1) Whether a pure-play AI data center company is pursuing a colocation or neocloud strategy, these are still highly volatile, hyper growth assets.
2) Generally speaking, companies don't want to broadcast strategy, or announce things they aren't sure they've accomplished. Complaining about "communication" on down days is amateur behavior.
3) One of the upshots of the colocation model is cheaper financing, because you're de-risking the portfolio earlier on. CIFR proposing to raise $850M with a 0% cash interest coupon, especially in today's higher-rate environment, to keep building and expanding is bullish.
4) We can infer from Cipher's own press release that the converts aren't intended solely to fund upgrades and design changes at Barber Lake: "Cipher intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund the cost of entering into the capped call transactions … and use the remainder of the net proceeds to fund additional equity investment in the Barber Lake project, support the build-out of its high-performance computing (HPC) strategy across its near-term pipeline, continue to expand its pipeline of development sites, and for general corporate purposes."
(investors.cipherdigital.com/…)
5) The extra spend at Barber Lake is being mischaracterized as simply cost “overruns.” These include tenant-driven upgrades negotiated in connection with an amendment that doubles Barber Lake’s contracted lease duration from 10 to 20 years. Securing another decade of contracted revenue in exchange for additional investment is hardly a bad development, especially in a world where AI compute capacity is becoming one of the most constrained (and valuable) assets.
6) Cipher is receiving both direct reimbursements for Barber Lake upgrades and additional rent that reimburses a portion of the remaining costs, inclusive of a contractual return on capital. Effectively, Cipher is earning “interest” for fronting some of the upgrade costs. Taken together with the additional contracted lease revenue, Cipher comes out ahead even after accounting for the costs it must absorb.
7) Cipher isn't throwing money away on this deal. Quite the opposite. Even after accounting for the additional capital required, management expects Barber Lake's returns to improve across the board. Their own investor presentation says: "Lease amendment significantly improves Barber Lake's investment return profile across all key financial metrics, inclusive of the additional capital required to complete the project."
8) The timing of the converts isn't "strange" or "weird." Cipher announced the Barber Lake amendment in late September, and it's now only mid-October. Raising capital promptly to fund contracted development obligations and capitalize on an attractive financing window is hardly unusual. All parties want these facilities completed and generating revenue, and companies that aren't aggressively executing risk being left behind.
9) Convertible financing isn't free capital, and dilution is a legitimate consideration. But the relevant question is whether management can deploy that capital into projects generating returns that outweigh the financing costs and dilution. The new investor presentation suggests that Cipher believes it can, with materially improved project IRR, NPV, and MOIC at Barber Lake.
10) My opinion is that these prices for stocks like $IREN and $CIFR right now will be a golden opportunity compared to what's to come not too long from now.
Look, you can either spiral down the rabbit hole trying to account for every last dollar and speculate about what management might be hiding, or evaluate what's actually been disclosed. The lease amendment, the financing, the cost-sharing framework, and the projected returns are all there. There's more than enough information to reasonably assess these as positive developments without resorting to blind faith.
And at some point, you have to recognize the quality of the team executing this strategy and trust that they're making the best possible decisions with the resources and circumstances in front of them. That isn't blind faith in @rftylerpage. It's informed confidence in management backed by the economics of the deals they're putting together.
Starkey retweeted
$CIFR is down -30% since I took a long position
In this video we will cover what exactly went wrong and where I plan to exit
We will go over why I was long to begin with, and how I handle losing trades
Watch Now 👇
Starkey retweeted
$CIFR just broke its 1H structure.
Is the bullish thesis dead?
Not yet.
I’m still pricing in a major breakout over the next 6–12 months.
In the video: the updated setup, why I remain bullish, and the exact level where I’d cut the trade if wrong.
Starkey retweeted
$CAVA +80% breakout setting up for the next 6 - 12 months
Double Smart Money Zone and I love this setup
I will look to open a position this week
Starkey retweeted
$ASTS I’m going to share this long-term channel breakdown. A relief bounce is likely in the coming days, with a retest of all the horizontal support levels lost this week; let’s see what happens then. Don't blame if I'm cautious right now. See you next weekend. GLTA
Starkey retweeted
$HIMS is coiling tightly.
The next 90 days could bring a massive breakout, but the setup has a clear invalidation point.
Watch the video for the full breakdown, my 90-day target, and exactly where I’d place my protective stop.
Starkey retweeted
$HIMS is poised for a huge move. Weight loss brings users in. If they stay for labs and other care, Hims learns more about their treatments and outcomes.
That data improves its AI, making care more useful and drawing in more users.
More users → more data → better care → more users.
That’s the data flywheel at the heart of the $HIMS thesis. This is the platform explained simply:
Eli Lilly $LLY says its next-generation obesity drug retatrutide delivered an average 20.8% weight loss, or 49.6 pounds, at the 12 mg dose over 80 weeks in a Phase 3 trial.
The treatment also reduced A1C levels.
Lilly plans to submit retatrutide for FDA approval in Q1 2027.
Starkey retweeted
$ASTS
failed breakout.
Price got rejected at the falling resistance,
remaining within the converging wedge.
Volume is strong.
I expect a break above, not a retest.
$ASTS remains within the buy zone.
$ASTS pt $131.
This is not investment advice.
xitter.cf/HKIStrategies/status/2…
$ASTS
coiled up.
Price is trading within a converging wedge.
Volume confirmed the bottom contact.
I expect $ASTS to break above the resistance.
$ASTS pt $131.
This is not investment advice.
xitter.cf/HKIStrategies/status/2…
Starkey retweeted
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Starkey retweeted
$DKNG just hit the strongest support level in my system.
Price has officially entered our Monthly Smart Money buy zone, and I’m now long.
In this video, I break down:
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• My 12 to 18 month target
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Starkey retweeted
Positioning for a potential 60% breakout in $CELH over the next 6 to 12 months.
In today’s video, I break down why I’m buying, where I plan to sell, the setup, key levels, and why I’m taking this trade.
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Starkey retweeted
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