Writer/Contributor at @ActionNetworkHQ covering the NFL & UFC. 20+ yrs experience. Some say MMA is my best sport, others agree. Poker player.

Kansas City, MO
Joined October 2011
JohnnyLFootball retweeted
✅ TITANS +6.5 The Titans come back from 0-13 to defeat the Colts!! @JohnnyLFootball's best bet cashes!!
🏈 TITANS vs COLTS NFL BEST BET ⚔️ TITANS +6.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/TEN1018 🗣️ "You don’t get many opportunities like this when diving into the ultra-tight market that is the NFL. We are able to back a team with a full touchdown worth of points in a divisional game where they are playing an opponent near the bottom of the league in passing offense, rushing defense, and pass rush production. There are a few books offering the Titans at +7 with added juice of just a few cents. I’d be willing to take the +7 at -120 or better; otherwise, +6.5 at -110 will suffice in getting us to the betting window to cash our ticket." -@JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 PANTHERS vs EAGLES NFL BEST BET 🦅 EAGLES +3.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/PHI1018 🗣️ "Had the Eagles finished stronger in each of their last two games by holding on to beat the Rams and earning a hard-fought victory over a top AFC team in the Jaguars, how would oddsmakers have priced this line? Even with Tanner McKee under center, the sentiment would not have been that this is a team deserving of underdog status at Lincoln Financial Field. We are buying low on an Eagles team that many believe is only a loss or two away from a fire sale and giving up on the season. The Panthers are also priced at their absolute peak considering they are riding higher off an island game victory the entire country witnessed. Carolina’s last road game saw them put up 18 points, average fewer than five yards per play and convert just 27% of third downs in a loss to the Browns. The Panthers should not be giving up more than a field goal against a desperate Eagles team on the road. Take the points, but you may not need them — I expect Philly to win outright." - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 RAIDERS vs PATRIOTS NFL BEST BET 🛡️ PATRIOTS -3.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/NE1011 🗣️ "Lastly, this handicap feels even more secure knowing the Patriots will not overlook this Raiders squad. Not only are the Raiders off to a fast start, but they came into Foxboro to open the 2025 season and left with a victory. As the astute Evan Abrams pointed out in his NFL Betting Primer, Mike Vrabel has been an extremely profitable wager when revenge is a motivator. Vrabel-led teams are 11-3 against the number when playing a team they were beaten by in their previous matchup. Keep in mind, we have only seen this Patriots defense in one home game this year — they allowed three points to a Steelers team that has averaged 24.6 PPG in their other three games. I like this number all the way up to -4, as the New England defense should once again prove its merit en route to a win and a cover." - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 BROWNS vs JETS NFL BEST BET ✈️ JETS -1.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/NYJ1011 🗣️ "New York is positioned for a bounce-back performance today at home. The Jets should be able to stay ahead of the sticks on early downs by running the football successfully, which will help negate some of the pass rush of Cleveland whenever Geno Smith and company do find themselves in 3rd-and-medium circumstances. The Browns are fortunate to boast a 3-1 record at this point considering they have led for just 27% of their offensive snaps. This game may be close through three quarters, but New York should sustain more drives and have more scoring opportunities in totality. I am backing the Jets as favorites in this favorable spot up to -2.5" - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
Patrick Mahomes pass yards per attempt this season, per @NextGenStats: 🔸 vs man coverage – 11.1 (1st) 🔸 under pressure – 10.5 (1st) 🔸 vs quick pressure – 11.5 (1st) 🔸 on 3rd down – 11.2 (1st) 🔸 in 4th quarter – 11.2 (1st) 🔸 targeting the slot – 11.3 (2nd) 🔸 targeting RB/TE – 8.4 (2nd) 🔸 vs Cover 0 – 16.9 (1st) 🔸 vs the blitz – 9.8 (3rd)
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 FALCONS vs SAINTS MNF BEST BET 🔴 FALCONS +1.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/ATL1005 🗣️ "There were five circumstances in the 2025 regular season that mirror the one we will see on Monday Night Football — an underdog on extended rest, with extra time to prepare, playing against a team that played a week prior. Those underdogs went 4-1 against the number in those five scenarios a year ago. It is also worth noting that reserve left tackle Asim Richards will make the start for the Saints once again this week. Richards surrendered six pressures last week and now will be tasked with limiting a pass rush playing exceptionally in their current form. It is hard to envision this contest playing out in a manner where Tyler Shough isn’t under constant duress. I have to back the underdog in this spot. The Falcons will gash the Saints' run defense en route to sustaining drives more often than not. Michael Penix Jr. will comfortably enjoy a play-action focused gameplan under head coach Kevin Stefanski that will lead the Falcons to their second consecutive road win." - @JohnnyLFootball
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Chiefs rushing leader for the last 8 years: 611 728 935 830 558 803 498 824 K9 has 537 rushing yards through 4 games
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
✅ TITANS +11.5 The Titans cover to cash @JohnnyLFootball's best bet!!
🏈 TITANS vs RAVENS NFL BEST BET ⚔️ TITANS +11.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/TEN1004 🗣️ "As a bettor, it isn't easy clicking the button to back a team playing as poorly as the Titans. Cam Ward’s performance is becoming a major concern when evaluating his future, but for this matchup in particular, in which he is going to see two-high safeties and light boxes at a disproportionately high rate, the running game should aid him greatly in this spot. Lastly, as Evan Abrams pointed out in his must-read NFL Betting Primer, for whatever reason, Lamar Jackson's Ravens have fared poorly against the number in the game following a win. Just 33.3% of the time have the Ravens covered in a game over Jackson’s last 18 starts following a victory. I’ll lean on the historical data here and back the Titans down to +11." - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 TITANS vs RAVENS NFL BEST BET ⚔️ TITANS +11.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/TEN1004 🗣️ "As a bettor, it isn't easy clicking the button to back a team playing as poorly as the Titans. Cam Ward’s performance is becoming a major concern when evaluating his future, but for this matchup in particular, in which he is going to see two-high safeties and light boxes at a disproportionately high rate, the running game should aid him greatly in this spot. Lastly, as Evan Abrams pointed out in his must-read NFL Betting Primer, for whatever reason, Lamar Jackson's Ravens have fared poorly against the number in the game following a win. Just 33.3% of the time have the Ravens covered in a game over Jackson’s last 18 starts following a victory. I’ll lean on the historical data here and back the Titans down to +11." - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
Fight Previews @DanTomMMA on Figgy-Talbott: actionnetwork.com/mma/deives… @JohnnyLFootball on Green-Ribovics: actionnetwork.com/mma/king-g… @Psychoward586 on my favorite fight, Soldic-Williams: actionnetwork.com/mma/robert… My Main Event Preview for Silva-Cong: actionnetwork.com/mma/natali…
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
“That Betting Show” presented by @CircaSports returns tonight! Join @AlexGold from 6-7 on @TheFan965. 🏈Chiefs/Raiders Betting Angles ⭐️Trend of the Week - TNF: Steelers/Browns 📞Mike Palm @CircaMaestro @ 6:20 💰“Goldy Locks”
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 CHARGERS vs BILLS NFL BEST BET ⚡️ CHARGERS +7.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/LAC0927 🗣️ "It may feel uncomfortable backing a team ranked 18th in both offensive and defensive yards per play facing an offensive juggernaut in Josh Allen and the Bills, but I expect this to be a highly competitive affair. The Chargers defense has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry to running backs and they lead the league in defensive success rate against the run. They will put themselves in position to get off the field on 3rd down. Allen will certainly have his moments creating magic to move the sticks, but all it takes is a couple of third-down stops to give the ball back to an offense that can exploit the weak Bills’ secondary and linebackers in coverage. A more buttoned-up offensive attack will lead to the Chargers cashing in for scores more often when they do sustain drives. I'm willing to pay a touch of extra juice here by searching for +7.5 at -120 or better. Otherwise, +7 at -110 should do the trick in a game that will remind bettors and analysts alike that Buffalo may still have objective flaws that will plague them down the road in the playoffs when facing the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL." - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
As always, my weekly recap at @ActionNetworkHQ Week 2: 3-2 ATS Lions +5.5 🚫 Pats -5 ✅ Commanders/Cowboys over 50.5 ✅ Colts/Chiefs over 46.5 ✅ Giants +6.5 🚫 NFL season total: 8-4 (66.6%) against the number thus far in 2026
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
In Patrick Mahomes starts, including the playoffs, the Chiefs have scored 30+ points: Eric Bieniemy as OC: 56 of 95 starts (58.9%) Matt Nagy as OC: 9 of 54 starts (16.7%) Kansas City has reached 30+ about 3.5 times as frequently with Bieniemy as offensive coordinator.
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
#Chiefs Regular season games with 30+ points: Matt Nagy as OC 2023-2025 (51 games): 5 Eric Bieniemy as OC in 2026 (2 games): 2
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
“What separates Patrick Mahomes from everyone else?” Record when team gives up 26+ points (including playoffs) - Mahomes: 24-23 (.511) - Brady: 45-64 (.413) - Allen: 15-22 (.405) - Hurts: 9-23 (.281) - Jackson: 9-25 (.265) - Herbert: 9-33 (.214) - Burrow: 6-22 (.214)
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
Patrick Mahomes tonight: - 94.5 PFF grade (1st this week) - 93.1 passing grade (1st this week) - 4 big time throws (1st this week) - 0 turnover worthy plays (1st this week) - 0.25 EPA/play My god
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