Writer/Contributor at @ActionNetworkHQ covering the NFL & UFC. 20+ yrs experience. Some say MMA is my best sport, others agree. Poker player.

Kansas City, MO
Joined October 2011
Jaguars win AFC South ✅ Panthers win NFC South ✅ Lions miss the playoffs ✅ Broncos miss the playoffs 🚫
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Dak starting to give me late-stage Russell Wilson vibes Every throw seems like he's making it harder than it should be
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
✅ TITANS +6.5 The Titans come back from 0-13 to defeat the Colts!! @JohnnyLFootball's best bet cashes!!
🏈 TITANS vs COLTS NFL BEST BET ⚔️ TITANS +6.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/TEN1018 🗣️ "You don’t get many opportunities like this when diving into the ultra-tight market that is the NFL. We are able to back a team with a full touchdown worth of points in a divisional game where they are playing an opponent near the bottom of the league in passing offense, rushing defense, and pass rush production. There are a few books offering the Titans at +7 with added juice of just a few cents. I’d be willing to take the +7 at -120 or better; otherwise, +6.5 at -110 will suffice in getting us to the betting window to cash our ticket." -@JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 PANTHERS vs EAGLES NFL BEST BET 🦅 EAGLES +3.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/PHI1018 🗣️ "Had the Eagles finished stronger in each of their last two games by holding on to beat the Rams and earning a hard-fought victory over a top AFC team in the Jaguars, how would oddsmakers have priced this line? Even with Tanner McKee under center, the sentiment would not have been that this is a team deserving of underdog status at Lincoln Financial Field. We are buying low on an Eagles team that many believe is only a loss or two away from a fire sale and giving up on the season. The Panthers are also priced at their absolute peak considering they are riding higher off an island game victory the entire country witnessed. Carolina’s last road game saw them put up 18 points, average fewer than five yards per play and convert just 27% of third downs in a loss to the Browns. The Panthers should not be giving up more than a field goal against a desperate Eagles team on the road. Take the points, but you may not need them — I expect Philly to win outright." - @JohnnyLFootball
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Yes, I dabble in CFB as well. Tracking every pick on the Action App Yesterday... 🧹🧹🧹
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Three consecutive primetime overtime games
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Bills +3.5 ✅ Rest of Week 5 results : Jets -1.5 ✅ Patriots -3.5 ✅ Cowboys -9 🚫 Full season NFL record against the spread at @ActionNetworkHQ : 15-9 (62.5%) ATS
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Best bet of Ravens/Falcons under 44 is a miss 🚫 Brings me to 2-1 against the number on Sunday at @ActionNetworkHQ Patriots -3.5 ✅ Jets -1.5 ✅ Full week 5 recap after my incoming best bet tomorrow night on MNF
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Jets -1.5 ✅
🏈 BROWNS vs JETS NFL BEST BET ✈️ JETS -1.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/NYJ1011 🗣️ "New York is positioned for a bounce-back performance today at home. The Jets should be able to stay ahead of the sticks on early downs by running the football successfully, which will help negate some of the pass rush of Cleveland whenever Geno Smith and company do find themselves in 3rd-and-medium circumstances. The Browns are fortunate to boast a 3-1 record at this point considering they have led for just 27% of their offensive snaps. This game may be close through three quarters, but New York should sustain more drives and have more scoring opportunities in totality. I am backing the Jets as favorites in this favorable spot up to -2.5" - @JohnnyLFootball
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Patriots -3.5 ✅
🏈 RAIDERS vs PATRIOTS NFL BEST BET 🛡️ PATRIOTS -3.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/NE1011 🗣️ "Lastly, this handicap feels even more secure knowing the Patriots will not overlook this Raiders squad. Not only are the Raiders off to a fast start, but they came into Foxboro to open the 2025 season and left with a victory. As the astute Evan Abrams pointed out in his NFL Betting Primer, Mike Vrabel has been an extremely profitable wager when revenge is a motivator. Vrabel-led teams are 11-3 against the number when playing a team they were beaten by in their previous matchup. Keep in mind, we have only seen this Patriots defense in one home game this year — they allowed three points to a Steelers team that has averaged 24.6 PPG in their other three games. I like this number all the way up to -4, as the New England defense should once again prove its merit en route to a win and a cover." - @JohnnyLFootball
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Still laughing about the people shocked by 6th price tag on Parker Washington. He was a 3rd round pick.
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 RAIDERS vs PATRIOTS NFL BEST BET 🛡️ PATRIOTS -3.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/NE1011 🗣️ "Lastly, this handicap feels even more secure knowing the Patriots will not overlook this Raiders squad. Not only are the Raiders off to a fast start, but they came into Foxboro to open the 2025 season and left with a victory. As the astute Evan Abrams pointed out in his NFL Betting Primer, Mike Vrabel has been an extremely profitable wager when revenge is a motivator. Vrabel-led teams are 11-3 against the number when playing a team they were beaten by in their previous matchup. Keep in mind, we have only seen this Patriots defense in one home game this year — they allowed three points to a Steelers team that has averaged 24.6 PPG in their other three games. I like this number all the way up to -4, as the New England defense should once again prove its merit en route to a win and a cover." - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 BROWNS vs JETS NFL BEST BET ✈️ JETS -1.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/NYJ1011 🗣️ "New York is positioned for a bounce-back performance today at home. The Jets should be able to stay ahead of the sticks on early downs by running the football successfully, which will help negate some of the pass rush of Cleveland whenever Geno Smith and company do find themselves in 3rd-and-medium circumstances. The Browns are fortunate to boast a 3-1 record at this point considering they have led for just 27% of their offensive snaps. This game may be close through three quarters, but New York should sustain more drives and have more scoring opportunities in totality. I am backing the Jets as favorites in this favorable spot up to -2.5" - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
Patrick Mahomes pass yards per attempt this season, per @NextGenStats: 🔸 vs man coverage – 11.1 (1st) 🔸 under pressure – 10.5 (1st) 🔸 vs quick pressure – 11.5 (1st) 🔸 on 3rd down – 11.2 (1st) 🔸 in 4th quarter – 11.2 (1st) 🔸 targeting the slot – 11.3 (2nd) 🔸 targeting RB/TE – 8.4 (2nd) 🔸 vs Cover 0 – 16.9 (1st) 🔸 vs the blitz – 9.8 (3rd)
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Falcons +1.5 ✅ Week 4 results: 3-1 ATS Titans +11.5 and Lions/Panthers over come through. Steelers/Browns under was a dud Season tally at @ActionNetworkHQ : 12-8 (60%) against the spread
🏈 FALCONS vs SAINTS MNF BEST BET 🔴 FALCONS +1.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/ATL1005 🗣️ "There were five circumstances in the 2025 regular season that mirror the one we will see on Monday Night Football — an underdog on extended rest, with extra time to prepare, playing against a team that played a week prior. Those underdogs went 4-1 against the number in those five scenarios a year ago. It is also worth noting that reserve left tackle Asim Richards will make the start for the Saints once again this week. Richards surrendered six pressures last week and now will be tasked with limiting a pass rush playing exceptionally in their current form. It is hard to envision this contest playing out in a manner where Tyler Shough isn’t under constant duress. I have to back the underdog in this spot. The Falcons will gash the Saints' run defense en route to sustaining drives more often than not. Michael Penix Jr. will comfortably enjoy a play-action focused gameplan under head coach Kevin Stefanski that will lead the Falcons to their second consecutive road win." - @JohnnyLFootball
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JohnnyLFootball retweeted
🏈 FALCONS vs SAINTS MNF BEST BET 🔴 FALCONS +1.5 👇 Add Directly To Your Betslip bit.ly/ATL1005 🗣️ "There were five circumstances in the 2025 regular season that mirror the one we will see on Monday Night Football — an underdog on extended rest, with extra time to prepare, playing against a team that played a week prior. Those underdogs went 4-1 against the number in those five scenarios a year ago. It is also worth noting that reserve left tackle Asim Richards will make the start for the Saints once again this week. Richards surrendered six pressures last week and now will be tasked with limiting a pass rush playing exceptionally in their current form. It is hard to envision this contest playing out in a manner where Tyler Shough isn’t under constant duress. I have to back the underdog in this spot. The Falcons will gash the Saints' run defense en route to sustaining drives more often than not. Michael Penix Jr. will comfortably enjoy a play-action focused gameplan under head coach Kevin Stefanski that will lead the Falcons to their second consecutive road win." - @JohnnyLFootball
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Patrick Mahomes vs man coverage in last 2 seasons, per @NextGenStats: 2026: 11.1 pass yds/attempt (leads NFL) 2025: 5.0 pass yds/attempt (32nd)* *Among 33 qualified QB
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Sunday Night Football best bet: Over 51 ✅ 2-0 day at @ActionNetworkHQ today One more best bet incoming tomorrow night
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Chiefs rushing leader for the last 8 years: 611 728 935 830 558 803 498 824 K9 has 537 rushing yards through 4 games
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