🚨♻️A Potential Southern Storm Track for the Coming Winter 2026-2027? Snowfall risk over Iberia and North Africa? Many global seasonal forecasting systems have begun to indicate drier-than-normal conditions across Iberia and North Africa during the forthcoming winter (December–February). I have attached some of these model projections in the comments. However, my statistical-analog analysis suggests that the outcome may be more nuanced. When Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures, evaporation, latent-heat flux, salinity, and other oceanic and atmospheric parameters are considered alongside the additional astronomical variables incorporated into my analog framework, there is a substantive possibility that the circulation pattern could favor a more southerly storm track during December–February. Such a configuration could increase the frequency of cold-air intrusions into North Africa and southern/central Iberia, with implications for snowfall potential across the Sierra Morena, Betic ranges, northern Moroccan Atlas, and the interior highlands of Algeria. The attached map represents a 35-year composite of statistically selected analog seasons exhibiting similar antecedent conditions. Although these analogs extend considerably back in time, the composite signal is noteworthy: it suggests a tendency toward colder-than-normal conditions across eastern, central and southeastern Iberia, particularly around the major mountain ranges. Importantly, Mediterranean SST anomalies can influence snowfall characteristics. A published numerical sensitivity study of an extreme eastern Mediterranean snowfall event found that positive SST anomalies increased snowfall intensity, particularly at higher elevations located farther from coastlines, while negative SST anomalies favored longer-lasting snow cover at lower elevations and near coastal areas. The authors also emphasized that this was a case-study result rather than a universal rule. rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.co… This distinction is important: a warmer Mediterranean does not necessarily mean less snow. Under the right synoptic configuration, enhanced oceanic heat and moisture fluxes can provide additional energy and moisture to a passing cyclone, potentially increasing snowfall over sufficiently cold and elevated terrain. What my analog composite suggests The composite points toward a potentially colder signal over : Betic Mountains — southern Spain Sierra Morena — central/southern Iberia Central Iberian mountain ranges Northern Moroccan Atlas. Interior highlands of Algeria up to Saharan inland peaks. Therefore, while some dynamical seasonal models currently lean toward a drier winter, my analog approach suggests that the possibility of a southerly storm track with episodic cold intrusions deserves attention. This does not imply a continuously cold or snowy winter. Rather, the signal is more consistent with the possibility of fewer but potentially significant cold/wet episodes, particularly when the large-scale circulation becomes favorable. I have attached the Meditteranean SST from June-August and it shows warmer waters near Gibraltar at the meantime. These anomalies might change later however during the year. Analog DJF Temperature Anomaly — Composite of 35 Years Statistical Analog Model & Downscaling by @Statisticizer hodhodata.com