Jason Tate retweeted
$NVDA Nvidia is responsible for ~36% of the QQQ's 16.4% return so far in 2024.
Jason Tate retweeted
Decided to go to the office this morning.
Floor usually can have 30-35 people.
It’s Friday, it’s 25C and we are three people on the floor. THREE
We are 4.5 years past COVID ffs.
Keep in mind this is a penthouse office not some basement office in Saskatchewan.
Office REIT’s are likely perpetually impaired and I’m all here for it.
Bring on the Sternlicht margin call 🤞 !
Jason Tate retweeted
6/ We have come through a period that has rewarded a "lack of imagination" to the downside. Maybe it's the "money printer goes brrr!" or maybe it's the "relentless passive bid" (as highlighted by Barry Ritholz), but even under those regimes episodes like August 5th will lurk.
Jason Tate retweeted
"Based on what we're seeing today, the Uber consumer is in great shape."
6. Contrary to many other pockets in the economy, $UBER is not experiencing any deterioration:
Jason Tate retweeted
9. Larger construction projects are still under pressure according to $HD:
Jason Tate retweeted
[ Nvidia's Roadmap Changes and GB200 Production Delays: Limited Impact ] - HSBC
1/ Nvidia plans to prioritize Hopper H200 GPU allocation over Blackwell B100/B200 in the second half of 2024.
The company will also allocate more capacity to advanced packaging CoWoS-S chips in fiscal year 2025. Next-generation GB200s might face a one to two-month delay.
These changes are not expected to significantly impact fiscal year 2025/2026 earnings. Specifications for different chips and detailed forecasts are available in exhibits 9-21.
2/ Nvidia will report second quarter 2025 results on August 28.
Sales are projected at $30.0 billion, surpassing management guidance of $28.0 billion and consensus of $28.6 billion.
Third quarter and fourth quarter 2025 sales estimates are $33.0 billion and $36.0 billion respectively, compared to consensus figures of $31.5 billion and $34.4 billion.
3/ Revenue from H200 and H20 (for China) in the second half of 2024 is expected to reach $23.5 billion and $6.3 billion, compensating for a potential $19.5 billion loss from B100 and GB200 downside.
The fiscal year 2025 datacenter sales estimate has been revised up by 8% to $110 billion, 4% above the consensus of $105.6 billion.
The next crucial checkpoint is in October, which will indicate if GB200 qualification remains on schedule for an April 2025 ramp-up.
4/ Fiscal year 2026 datacenter revenue is projected at $178.6 billion (62% year-on-year growth, 14% above consensus of $156.3 billion).
However, optimistic market expectations of $200 billion in datacenter revenue and fiscal year 2026 earnings per share of $4.50-5.00 suggest limited upside potential.
The new roadmap, favoring lower-spec AI 2025 GPU, may result in reduced pricing power. Nevertheless, the 2025 AI hyperscaler capital expenditure trend and underlying AI demand are expected to remain strong.
Jason Tate retweeted
$7115.JP
Q2 Results yesterday was a continuation of Q1. Pretty bland.
FM looked weak YoY (-10% rev) mainly bc last 1H saw some pent-up demand. Margin also lower with lower mix of high margin projects. This is a little more project driven and hard to predict.
Margins are typically lower in 1H but same period last year saw abnormally high profitability. So looks worse than actually is.
Customers are delaying some renovations because inbound tourism has been so strong. Hotels want to maximise capacity and cannot afford to close out a section. So MT Demand looks strong.
On the flipside their main MRO segment is doing better than expected (+11% rev)- despite continued weakness in SMBs in the current environment. Their enterprise customers which is their core more than offset it. New model for high-value items was originally set to launch summer but this looks like it will be by EOY.
No change in guidance but they upgraded MRO and downgraded their FM biz.
Which I'm fine with since MRO is the most important business IMO.
Overall nothing to write home about and the MRO business is doing what it needs to do.
Alpha Purchase hit today after earnings which were kinda meh 😑 but am not concerned overall.
MRO biz was fine. SME side was a little weaker but Enterprise, which is their core, was better than expected.and this is with 2 less working days in the quarter YoY.
Crux was earnings being down quite a bit in FM biz due to mix effect. Smaller reno projects have higher gross margins but low mix% compared to last year. Q1 last year grew +52% so also tough comp. CEO says this is as expected and already included in guidance it gave. Expecting small renos to show in 2H. Give nature FM revenue cadence has always been bumpy so im not too worried.
In fact the figures they reported are above what they originally anticipated. CEO also implied guidance is conservative.
We'll see what happens in 2H. Apparently interest from overseas investors is strong 😃
Jason Tate retweeted
Cost of sales is growing less rapidly than revenues which is good for a sportswear company as it means they are able to optimize costs (be it shipping or manufacturing) while demand & sales grow.
Expenses are a different story, growing more rapidly than revenues for the quarter & semester - in terms of value as it is flat-ish in terms of percentage of revenues. It is normal as these include marketing, and a sportswear company needs to grow its marketing costs to build brand awareness.
It’s simply not perfect to see them growing more rapidly than revenues but it still is a necessary step, for now at least - hence the quotes on “issue.” These expenses already yielded returns and should continue to do so.
“we further boosted them with significant marketing investments across all our channels. And it's clearly working. The brand is maintaining its incredible momentum based on direct customer feedback, continued sell through strength, our brand awareness tracker, a strong increase in Google searches and millions of media impressions.”
The foreign exchange losses are also shown in this statement, and is what I detailed earlier about currency swaps - you can see that On is losing a few million on this, which makes a difference.
Guidance.
The guidance is good, in line with my personal expectations, with FY-24 growing 30% in constant currency, as it is impossible to predict the future exchange rates. We’d be talking about 2.26B CHF of revenues at the end of the year while staying profitable with a gross margin around 60%, and a net margin probably around today’s or a bit higher - between 7% & 10%.
A rapid word on the consumer strength, on which On is pretty optimist on.
“So we I think we confirmed an already strong guidance and we wouldn't do that if we didn't have confidence in the consumer. We see very positive signs over the last couple of weeks.”
On is a premium brand, selling expensive products, and the weakness in the consumer observed by many companies or banks over the last months came from the lower-income households, which aren’t really On’s target. I wouldn’t be surprised to see On continue thriving as long as higher-income households’ buying power isn’t too much impacted.
My Take.
As I said at the beginning of the write-up: a correct quarter. Nothing shining, and management is doing what it should do to grow brand awareness & revenues for the future. This quarter just confirms the good trajectory on which the company already is.
I stick to what I said in terms of valuation as well - just keep in mind every number is in CHF here, nothing in dollars except the stock price which isn’t available in CHF and is converted to the currency with today’s exchange rate.
Expectations didn’t change. The company is planning to grow 30% YoY FY-24 and this seems achievable as growth is accelerating, but I prefer to stay conservative in my assumptions as it will still be hard to keep this growth for three years straight.
Between 24% & 27% is very doable - assuming we won’t hit a recession, and the proper average price to accumulate would still be around $30-$34 with a correct margin of safety.
As always, this is considering today’s data; things change, and I’ll change if I need to. As of now… I plan to continue buying as long as my average price sticks around $30/$32.
Jason Tate retweeted
[Amazon Q2-24 | Detailed Review]
I released yesterday my detailed Q2-24 $AMZN review to subscribers and will link it on the first comment below if you're interested. We covered.
- Amazon growth & margins.
- Management perfect excecution.
- The AWS beast.
- Valuation & price traget.
For free, just here👇.
Jason Tate retweeted
Hot take 🔥
Benchmarks for LLM models slow down the progress towards AGI significantly. The improvements in performance is mostly coming from humans fine tuning and adjusting the parameters in these models and managing compute differently — not TRUE progress of architecture that advances the “intelligence” of the models.
Jason Tate retweeted
[ The Sahm Rule Creator's Perspective on US Economy ]
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
1/ Claudia Sahm, the creator of the Sahm Rule, expressed through Bloomberg Opinion that despite the disappointing jobs report on Friday triggering the rule bearing her name, the United States is not in a recession.
2/ However, she argued that the risk of a recession has increased, making it more likely for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
3/ Sahm suggested that the best scenario would be for the Fed to start monetary easing gradually in advance. She also mentioned that a 50 basis point rate cut would be a favorable scenario.
Jason Tate retweeted
If you voted your TSLA shares, you have the chance to attend our Giga Texas tour with @elonmusk & @woodhaus2 as your guides → tesla.com/tour-the-factory
A slowdown at Disney’s parks was expected, but the magnitude of the decline is worrisome and suggests that the demand slump may not be transitory.
Disney's $DIS profit has gone nowhere in 20 years. 2004 Net Income: $2.4B, LTM Net Income: $1.7B
"House of the Dragon" $WBD showrunner and co-creator Ryan Condal revealed that the "Game of Thrones" prequel will include two more seasons, and will conclude with Season 4 - Variety
Jason Tate retweeted
"For the past 10 years, no one has dictated my schedule... I can go days without checking email and nothing would happen... that's a HUGE part of life satisfaction..."
Had the pleasure of hosting @khemaridh on the pod. So many gems.
Been thinking a lot about how I to make the most of my late 20s and and found this chat helpful.
We talk about:
- What death can teach you about life
- Walking away from big $$$ for 'time freedom'
- Attending Yale from a middle-class background
Full Episode👇👇👇























