First - survive. Engines, plastic rocks on walls, brypto.
Gibraltar
Joined August 2016
- Tweets2.4K
- Following1.5K
- Followers118
- Likes12.7K
l'appel du vide retweeted
Superforecasting
By Philip Tetlock
Read this ~4 years ago, and I think it’s worth coming back to a second time.
At a high level the book reveals that forecasting is a trainable skill, not an innate talent. Average people can consistently beat professional intelligence analysts and prediction markets by adopting mindsets rooted in probabilistic thinking and active open-mindedness.
It emphasizes the necessity of tracking your forecasts and the subsequent outcomes. This is imperative for successful trading too— it’s really your only hope imo. Might be a burden but that just means you’re overtrading and you should probably delete your brokerage from your phone… let’s be honest. I’ve drifted away from this practice but have gotten back to it over the past 6 weeks or so. Highly recommend it and will write a separate thread on it (i think).
l'appel du vide retweeted
Windows secretly keeps a thumbnail of every photo you've ever deleted.
It lives in a file called thumbcache_256.db.
Forensic examiners pull it routinely.
There are 15 more hidden stores just like it.
Here's exactly where they are — and how to wipe them:
l'appel du vide retweeted
It’s actually shocking how much dirt you can glean from just reading books by Israelis lol
l'appel du vide retweeted
This portfolio construction looks awfully familiar 🤨
@citrini is a certified ball knower, very impressed he has ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be at the #1 spot
Pretty clear what the winning bets are in crypto now. If you look forward 6-12 months and your TAM isn't expanding several multiples from agentic trading and on chain RWAs/tokenization, you're just not that interesting of a bet to take when those are so clearly the upcoming catalysts.
Your biggest risk as a crypto allocator right now isn't quantum, it's the opportunity cost of being stuck in stale and outdated tokens that generate no revenue and garner no institutional bid.
l'appel du vide retweeted
Tip: A good way to find real low caps is to constantly monitor gas consumption across chains, it’s probably led to 90% of my gains.
You don’t need to wait for a human report, the chain doesn’t lie, and with a little AI help, it’s easy to see.
PS: Most gems are on Ethereum.
ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be is up over 1000% YTD
i’ve been saying that for a while now
this cycle’s alpha is in the small caps
everyone is either focused on the majors like HYPE, ZEC, or NEAR, which are all good trades but somewhat limited in their upside and have already played out a big part of their move
or they’re stuck in the trenches or on leverage chasing that 1000x
meanwhile, there are dozens of incredible low cap gems that already make or are set to make a shit ton of revenue, which you can pick up right now for cheap
some of these will 10x, 20x, or even 30x+
as a wise man once said: “you should probably be trading way less, and reading way more”
l'appel du vide retweeted
I present to you the next goat/aixbt but better - $CLAUS
An agent living inside a coin creating hooks with new rules as it grows more intelligent.
it's created a buyback + burn hook.
Used IMD's paid swarm jobs.
An nft hook which rewards holders with trade fees
A prediction market hook
And just now an arbitrage hook which uses profits to buyback it's own token.
First of it's kind. Novel tech in a market full of larps and farms.
Send to $100m pronto.
First ever agent living inside a coin adding hooks with new rules as it's intelligence evolves. Already added it's first hook to buyback + burn supply with fees.
Helped created and tested by @ProgrammableHQ founder
Agent x Hooks meta on mainnet 🪝
$CLAUS
l'appel du vide retweeted
oh new ones only
ogs bought argonauts on mainnet and degens experimenting with complex yield V4 nfts on robinhood chain
the space is surprisingly alive
l'appel du vide retweeted
Every day I wake up thinking "What's the next 100%"? I know this one sounds retarded, but thats how you know it's Alpha.
Hyperliquid -> Long $ETC
Current price is 7.85, TWAP into this shit. Add daily for the next 10 days. Use 2X. Wait 2 months. Consider yourself blessed.
l'appel du vide retweeted
It's finally here. The Jords Podcast EP1
—
How to make it
0:00 Why I started this podcast
1:37 How to make it
2:55 Naval's four types of leverage
6:46 Why media is the only one you can't buy
12:18 Getting into the right rooms
20:01 In what order to build your leverage
25:20 Making money without gambling it all away
27:39 Reputation compounds like interest
33:02 Closing thoughts
l'appel du vide retweeted
July was the worst drawdown of my life in the AI trade. Total disaster round-tripping all those gains like a retarded goon.
I took that personally and returned to what I do best. Timing the moves of gold.
Woke up to a casual +21% on the portfolio. Markets loudly rang the bell yesterday that the regime had shifted, but it gave you plenty of hints prior, and fortunately I listened. Didn’t need to do anything yesterday except cut a non-performing ai-name: Akamai.
Current equity and spot crypto positioning shown. Full positioning sorted by performance yesterday: precious metals (calls and shares), crypto (Purr, Circle), health care (Eli Lilly and Iova), ai-beneficiary software (Mitek, Amplitude, Veeva), ai-hardware (Nebius, Micron, dram).
(I added crypto this month simply because gold and silver gave the signal. I am terrible at trading that asset class. Too much damaged baggage.)
I much prefer calls on gold, silver, and miners to holding a large basket of junior miners. More leverage. More control. Also have gold and silver futures longs on hyperliquid but I find those more challenging. It’s hard not to micromanage there. Hands off is better. But carefully watching price action and ema behavior on lower time frames is critical for me to understand strength of trend.
If I controlled more capital I would love to add a basket of a dozen gold and silver developers for position holds. I have a great watchlist of names to track.
So if I nail some cycles with GLD/SLV/GDX calls, I will reposition some of those gains into developers at the right moment. I can’t just keep on doubling down with calls as the cycle progresses, since the numbers will become stressful and that’s how you blow up.
But I believe this new leg has just begun, and it’s going to be a big one. If debasement and stagflation collide, gold miners will outperform everything.
In the prior leg, gold ran first. In this new leg, the miners have moved fastest out of the gate. Lots of signal in that move.
Enjoy the volatility of the ride.
l'appel du vide retweeted
$Unitree just listed 15 minutes ago in China. $21 IPO price listed at $152 (large differential on perp exchanges). Humanoid sector gonna go crazy imo.
l'appel du vide retweeted
Governments don't want you to know this but you can literally build a solar-powered ESP32 based relay node that expands @jack's Bitchat bluetooth mesh network by 2km-10km via LoRa by using the open source Bitle firmware.
github.com/bitleproject/bitl…
l'appel du vide retweeted
$XLM
Falling wedge pattern retest of macro downwards resistance. Someone didnt want to let this one slip back into the range too hard. One of the alts beginning to show real signs of life and reversal coming
If $XLM can hold support on the daily here and build some good looking structure on lower time frames, I'll long
l'appel du vide retweeted
🚨 SOMEONE JUST BUILT TORLINK — A SLEEK TERMINAL-NATIVE TORRENT CLIENT THAT SEARCHES EVERY TRUSTED SOURCE AT ONCE AND DOWNLOADS STRAIGHT TO YOUR DISK.
Tired of sketchy torrent sites packed with fake buttons, popups, and dead links? torlink fixes that.
Type a query (or paste a magnet), and it hits a curated list of trusted sources in parallel — FitGirl (games), YTS, 1337x, EZTV, Nyaa, SubsPlease & more. Results stream in live with sizes and seed counts. Arrow + d to download.
Highlights:
• One command: npx torlnk (just needs Node)
• Background queuing + resume support
• Auto-seeds by default (easy toggle)
• Clean keyboard TUI — nothing leaves your machine except torrent traffic
Perfect for grabbing games, movies, TV, or anime without the usual headache. MIT open source, zero setup, and stupidly simple.
This is the terminal tool power users have been waiting for.
Who’s trying this on their next download? 🔥
l'appel du vide retweeted
fancy a sunday read on why the world is better than it seems?
jords.life/p/the-allure-of-d…
