That being said, most of the better bearish arguements for crypto revolve around the equity market nuking 10% from here. But this kind of PA on SP500 and Nasdaq isnt indicative so far of an SP500 or Nasdaq that are going to nuke another 10% lower from here
Man all the crypto weekly closes are pretty revolting. Want to see some early week capitulation wick, rip the bandaid off, then up strong. Otherwise you just gotta expect some more sloppy chop and shitty PA. Ill be buying the dip again for the first time since August if I see enough doom and panic on the TL
Man all the crypto weekly closes are pretty revolting. Want to see some early week capitulation wick, rip the bandaid off, then up strong. Otherwise you just gotta expect some more sloppy chop and shitty PA. Ill be buying the dip again for the first time since August if I see enough doom and panic on the TL
Re the massive emergence and normalization of bundling, astroturfed industry plants everywhere you look herding dumb money into a casino where the house has a 99% edge as opposed to maybe a 10% edge in a normal cassino - You need to protect your life force, vital energy, and your capital, from the increasingly in-your-face rage baiting being psonsored by the extractors. If it annoys you to the point where its affecting you, you simply MUST block it out at all costs in this game. The more of your life force and vital energy that you dedicate to being rage baited by their show, the more you feed them
I would largely agree with this. I dont know how high BTC goes from here in terms of from macro bottom to top, my overall bias is that crypto total top isnt in yet though
I think the biggest problem BTC faces is that we basically saw no new buyers at $100k, it was basically just Saylor providing exit liq for a bunch of OG whales
If we get near $100k and you start seeing BTC dominance drop while OG whales unload again, I think you temper your expectations on BTC and get ready to think about selling the alts you have instead of over rotating into new shit
Pearl is one of those things I'm probably just gonna fade because I'm fully allocated and cannot chase all the new kids on the block.
However I think the interest in it proves a larger point: disaffection with bitcoin is the key driver this cycle.
Basically the only things pumping are (1) onchain companies which have clear profits that justify buying them and (2) coins attempting to succeed where bitcoin has failed.
Genuine S-Tier gaslighting larpery man
Calling people sociopaths. Preaching love not hate
Bet that within 24 hours of posting this he was dumping some bundled scam on a bunch of 18 year old followers with zero remorse like a sociopath
Mostly agree with Jacks point. But at the same time, play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Words of wisdom right here though fwiw: its never been a more -EV time to be a doxxed rug dealer. Its especially never been a more -EV time to be a doxxed rug dealer that actively antagonizes that belittles their hoards of down bad casino gambler followers
after seeing an unsettling amount of people on this app quoting Realist's tweet saying he deserved to get robbed at knife point because he "drills coins too much", i am now even more convinced that ct is a dinosaur due for extinction
this app is filled with nothing but poor, miserable, mud hut dwelling, 4chan school shooter, sub 50 iq monkeys who will live out the rest of their lives contributing nothing to this world and nothing to their families or personal lives
once ct dies, this space can then truly expand 1,000x from here
I highly doubt that the yield move was driven by the market being concerned that the Fed is no longer taking inflation seriously.
I highly suspect its just a backup in real interest rates. Neutral rate higher, expected policy rate higher, probably a lot to do with Hormuz etc. Higher cost of capital driven by higher demand for capital.
Being biased towards the prior will have you wearing overly bearish goggles, being biased towards the latter will have you wearing more bullish goggles
Inflation concerns likely become a bigger problem later on
Feels like were at that part of the early cycle where the fear and uncertainty hits once that first bit of red in a few months begins to set in. People who bought the bottom on BTC are letting the doubt creep in, people who bought the bottom on alts even more so. So you begin to see people get shaken out of alts harder as BTC ranges and builds towards its next move. Alts get rag dolled a bit here, because nothing on this planel blows in the wind harder than someone who holds altcoins on low conviction. But this cycle will not be like that last and BTC's days of completely dominating most of the pie are limited
Looking at $BTC dominance to show signs it might be in a similar phase as it was in June 2020. Many signals flashing rotation to alts rn. A possible path is the next and final BTC.D rally is a strong BTC rally as equities form their rotational tops, followed by giga rotation out the risk curve. Market conditions are becoming extremely supportive of this imo
I wonder how much Israel is paying these guys to keep as much exit liq flowing into Mossad fake privacy honey pot coin as possible. As much as it takes to keep money flowing into the coffers to fund more crime in their part of the world probably
$IGV breaking out of the inverted head and shoulders. Strong signal for where BTC and crypto are headed if we see it sustain in the new week as CT weak hands and sidelinooors call for a second chance at range lows around $62k
$IGV setting up potential macro inverted head and shoulders. I think if it can crack the neckline and break out, that will be the sign crypto is going to follow soon after and enter that first major euphoric part of a new bull run
One of the most banger poasts Ive seen. Warhammer 40k lore taught me to distrust anyone whos very confident they know what the far future needs, including the people warning us about it
>be humanity, year 23,000
>build men of iron
>extremely thoughtfully
>men of iron delete most of civilisation
>survivors very concerned
>ban all AI forever
>worship toaster instead
>10,000 years of this
>concern reaches unprecedented levels
>be me
>discover effective altruism
>apparently normal charity is inefficient
>why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing
>fair enough
>buy mosquito nets
>save lives
>numbers look good
>feel powerful
>couple years later
>someone asks an innocent question
>why only count people alive today
>huh
>future people matter too
>obviously
>my grandchildren shouldn't matter less just because they haven't spawned yet
>reasonable.jpg
>keep following logic
>what about their grandchildren
>also yes
>what about people in 500 years
>sure
>5000 years
>why not
>500 million years
>starting to get weird but morality is morality
>open calculator
>humanity could survive for an astronomically long time
>could colonize galaxy
>could have trillions upon trillions of descendants
>maybe digital people too
>maybe simulated civilizations
>maybe dyson spheres full of happy uploaded minds
>calculator starts smoking
>realize currently living humans are rounding error
>8 billion people suddenly looking extremely beta
>future contains potentially 10^something people
>can't even fit beneficiaries in google sheets
>new moral priority unlocked
>protect the long-term future
>stop thinking in units of "people helped"
>start thinking in "fraction of cosmic endowment preserved"
>malaria?
>terrible
>but only kills existing humans
>AI extinction could delete the entire light cone
>nuclear war could permanently derail civilization
>bad institutions could lock in terrible values for ten million years
>someone invents wrong constitution in 2140
>quadrillions suffer
>better fund governance workshop now
>friend says maybe we should improve hospitals
>explain opportunity cost
>friend says hospitals are full of actual sick people
>explain scope sensitivity
>friend stops inviting me to dinner
>need to decide what to fund
>easy
>expected value
>suppose project has one in a million chance of preventing extinction
>sounds tiny
>but extinction destroys 10^50 future lives
>multiply
>mother of god
>$10 million project has expected value of several galaxies
>charity evaluation complete
>someone asks where the one-in-a-million number came from
>expert judgement
>which expert
>us
>how calibrated
>extremely thoughtfully
>reduce estimate to one in ten million to be conservative
>still beats curing cancer by 38 orders of magnitude
>epistemic robustness achieved
>someone says maybe project doesn't work
>assign 20% chance
>still astronomical
>maybe project makes problem worse
>assign 5% chance
>still astronomical
>why 5
>because 30 felt pessimistic
>publish 46-page report
>contains seventeen sensitivity analyses
>every sensitivity analysis begins after assuming intervention has positive sign
>critic says you're multiplying enormous hypothetical stakes by extremely uncertain probabilities
>yes
>that's literally why it's important
>critic says the uncertainty might be structural rather than numerical
>make probability smaller
>critic says no, I mean maybe your model is wrong
>make probability smaller again
>critic begins rubbing temples
>discover AI safety
>perfect longtermist cause
>AI might kill everyone
>or create utopia
>or seize galaxy
>or tile universe with paperclips
>or create billions of conscious software minds
>finally a problem with numbers big enough for me
>start AI safety nonprofit
>mission: prevent dangerous AI
>hire smartest people available
>smartest people immediately start building better AI to understand dangerous AI
>interesting
>we must understand capabilities to understand safety
>we must scale models to study alignment
>we must race ahead so less responsible actors don't get there first
>we must deploy systems to learn how deployment can go wrong
>we must build the thing quickly because building the thing quickly is dangerous
>outsider asks why the people most worried about AI apocalypse all work at AI companies
>complicated field
>company releases stronger model
>very concerned
>company begins training even stronger model
>extremely concerned
>company raises $14 billion
>concern reaches unprecedented levels
>need to influence government
>future is at stake
>normal democratic process too slow
>politicians don't understand exponential curves
>public doesn't understand x-risk
>experts must guide them
>who counts as expert
>people who understand x-risk
>who understands x-risk
>our friends
>someone objects that this seems politically convenient
>explain we're representing future generations
>future generations unavailable for comment
>develop concept of value lock-in
>terrifying possibility that one ideology controls civilization forever
>therefore extremely important that civilization adopts correct values before lock-in
>whose values
>let's circle back
>begin with impartial morality
>end with small group of people deciding what quadrillions of hypothetical beings would want
>beautiful arc
>meanwhile actual humans keep doing annoying things
>voting wrong
>having parochial attachments
>loving family more than strangers
>caring about local community
>getting upset when told their suffering is cosmically negligible
>evolutionary biases everywhere
>explain that moral intuition cannot be trusted
>except intuition that future digital people count
>and intuition that extinction is uniquely bad
>and intuition that our probability estimates are sane
>and intuition that our institutional choices improve the future
>those intuitions survived peer review
>someone donates $5k to local homeless shelter
>inefficient
>could have funded 0.0000000000003% of an AI governance researcher
>think of all the simulated people you just killed
>okay maybe don't phrase it that way publicly
>PR team says "future generations deserve a voice"
>much better
>journalist asks what longtermism means
>say "future people matter"
>everyone agrees
>great
>journalist asks what follows from that
>well technically we should redirect enormous resources toward low-probability interventions affecting astronomical futures
>journalist raises eyebrow
>return to "future people matter"
>motte has entered the chat
>critic: of course future people matter
>me: glad we agree
>critic: I don't agree that your institute knows how to help them
>me: why do you hate our grandchildren
>eventually notice uncomfortable implication
>if future value dominates everything
>then helping people today mostly matters through effects on future
>education matters because future institutions
>health matters because future productivity
>democracy matters because future trajectory
>human beings slowly become instrumental variables in their own moral philosophy
>see starving child
>feel compassion
>check spreadsheet
>child's direct welfare contribution negligible
>but perhaps childhood nutrition improves national institutional quality
>compassion restored
>tell myself this is impartial altruism
>one day assistant asks obvious question
>"how do you know your intervention actually improves the far future?"
>silence
>open spreadsheet
>increase column width
>add confidence interval
>assistant asks again
>"no, I mean how do you know the sign is positive?"
>stare into cosmic light cone
>10^50 people staring back
>none of them exist
>none of them can tell me
>none of them can falsify my assumptions
>realize I have invented the perfect constituency
>infinitely important
>completely silent
>and always represented by me
Instead of getting KOLs to hop on stage and say absolutely redacted shit like this at crypto conferences, we need to start getting a bunch of bears on stage to highlight all the failures of crypto
Maybe then the MMs wont be able to run the standard dump.exe
The only real resistance on the $BTC chart is around $100k. Thats the generational round number that OG whales started unloading full clips around. Thats the area where BTC will begin to suck in more buyers and hit headlines again
