This Friday 25-Sep is the quarterly option expiry for Deribit . I would assume that strong directional price action and a break through the 3k strike on ETH is quite difficult.
Julien retweeted
last few wks had lots of sellers (DATs, Miners pivoting, Early adopters) in spot mkts, overwriters (Sep 70k) but BTC price flatlined
was actually a bullish sign that price action held so well throughout those sales
then you had gold catching a bid from china with quiet whispers of BTC store of value narrative re-emerging — now price action and momentum chasing going to override all the quantum risk concerns which are too far away to quash an underowned / hated rally
expect macro guys to get more vocal after having put in a floor and accumulated in the last few wks to shill their bags. four year cycle, gold, Bessent buying 30ys — the story writes itself
Everybody knows that everybody knows that the halving cycle and Uptober coincide this year. Bitcoin has done nothing for so long that it feels stupid to even express a view. With the treasury announcement today and gold rising back from the dead, I am thinking the time to buy bitcoin is now, not later. Pretty easy trade to risk manage. Below 60k it's wrong. Not investment advice.
Option leverage is good as IV is super low.
If it works, you hold until mid-October or sell at 78k/80k area.
Julien retweeted
right hello twitter we need some help down in ATX! if you know anyone that might be interested please send them my way
we are options specialists with a focus on institutional OTC and Market Making. lean and mean and looking for exceptional talent to join us in Austin
Software Engineer:
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Platform Engineer:
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Julien retweeted
$MSTR - STRATEGY SELLS BITCOIN, HOLDS OFF ON SHARE MOVES
Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin for about $216 million between June 29 and July 5, reducing its holdings to 843,775 BTC.
The company sold no shares under its ATM program and made no share repurchases.
Bitcoin sale proceeds were used to fund preferred stock payments, while its cash reserve stood at $2.55 billion.
Julien retweeted
A 1999 IPO investor in NVIDIA still holding today turned 8,200x.
If a SPCX IPO investor were to make 8,200x within 27 years, SPCX market cap would be 14.514 quadrillion — or 145x the current global M2 money supply.
Julien retweeted
A move that will have many long term consequences, and it will shape AI models and AI access going forward
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
Afaik SpaceX attempts to raise $ 75bn with their IPO. Then at just a couple of days ago Google announced a $ 84bn capital raise which is even bigger. The latter is expected to hit the tape in Q3-2026. Then there is OpenAI and Anthropic.
Just feels like there is a lot of liquidity needed for the rest of the year.
Julien retweeted
SPACEX will be the biggest and most expensive IPO I have seen.
Retail, Pension funds and alike will be forced to buy it via the ETF inclusion which was only possible by fully changing multiple rules to create exit liquidity for an overpriced IPO.
Very sad to see this type of rule changing at the expense of all investors.
The SpaceX IPO is the most brazen retail fleecing in modern market history.
NASDAQ has REWRITTEN the index rules specifically for this listing. The 10% minimum free float requirement: gone. The 3 to 12 month seasoning period before index inclusion: cut to 15 trading days. Companies with small floats can now be weighted at 3x their actual float.
Translation: every passive index fund, every 401k, every pension is about to be force-fed SPCX whether they want it or not.
And what exactly are they buying?
Class A shares carrying ONE vote each, while Musk holds 93.6% of the Class B super voting shares at TEN votes each. That gives him 85.1% of voting power on a 42% economic interest. He cannot be outvoted. He cannot be removed. CEO, CTO and board chairman simultaneously.
For reference: Zuckerberg controls 61% of Meta. Buffett 35% of Berkshire. Musk: 85.1%.
SpaceX is also claiming "controlled company" status, exempting it from needing a majority of independent directors. Shareholders waive the right to a jury trial. They waive the right to class actions. Mandatory arbitration only, courtesy of an SEC rule change pushed through on a party line vote last September.
$1.75 trillion valuation. $80 billion raise. Largest IPO in history.
The rules of the game were quietly rewritten so one man could extract maximum capital from retail while answering to no one.
Not gonna lie, crypto looks terrible here. Feels like there’s barely any real bid left outside of the DATs stepping in every now and then. Capital still rotating out of crypto.
At a high level, it still seems like the market is still structurally oversupplied, i.e. too much existing market cap, consistent unlocks/emissions.
Wild
BREAKING: The 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, attracted a record +$1.03 billion in inflows on Tuesday.
At the same time, the 3x leveraged short semiconductor ETF, $SOXS, posted -$230 million in outflows, the largest daily outflow since late March.
Furthermore, the 3x leveraged long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $TQQQ, saw +$161 million in inflows, the highest daily intake since March 31.
In other words, $SOXL inflows were more than 6 times larger than $TQQQ inflows, as investors concentrated their bullish bets in semiconductors.
$SOXL is now up +354% since the March 30th bottom, the largest 31-day increase since the fund launched in 2010.
This comes as the semiconductor sector, $SOX, is up +68% over the same period, the 3rd-best 31-day performance on record.
The run in semiconductor stocks is truly historic.
Julien retweeted
If you thought Quantum was insane wait until you tell your kids about the time a 30mil revenue company which operates at a loss was up 11,353% in 13 months. $AXTI has been nothing short of wild and today sits at a fun 380% above it's 200sma.
Unironically I think this would be a healthy sign for the crypto market as a whole:
"Will likely sell some BTC specifically to fund a dividend — framed as an "inoculation" move to prove the company doesn't need to sell equity to cover obligations, killing the short thesis"
