Baruch College, MBA 2023 Union College, BSc EE 2015 CFA L2 Candidate 2025

New York, NY
Joined April 2022
JP van Essche retweeted
Well, this post struck a nerve. Calls for a "Black Monday" stock market crash are trending again. Last night, we took the opposite view. As with every market prediction we make, there are thousands of people urging others to "fade" us. But take a look at the chart below. It shows every time "Black Monday" has trended on social media since May 2025. History suggests that calls for a "Black Monday" crash have repeatedly presented some of the best buying opportunities. And as we outline in our analysis below, the majority of stocks in the S&P 500 have already experienced a bear market, EVEN AS the index trades near record highs; a largely unprecedented occurence. How is this possible? Read our full analysis here: xitter.cf/KobeissiLetter/status/…
Calls for a "Black Monday" are spreading rapidly across social media right now. If history is any guide, this means the S&P 500 should hit 8,000 soon. Ignore the noise. Read our analysis below.
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JP van Essche retweeted
BREAKING: Iran says it is open to talks and not seeking nuclear weapons, per Reuters
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JP van Essche retweeted
Going to spend the weekend imagining where the market would be right now if we didn’t get into a war with Iran.
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The S&P 500 is now in bear-market territory.. ..the valuation, that is. P/E has contracted from 23.2x a year ago to 18.7x today.. .that's just about a 20% de-rating @dualityresearch Multiple is the cheapest since Liberation Day April 2025
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Nasdaq 100 has closed lower or below its opening price for 9 straight days, only 10th such streak in history. $NDX was higher 5 days later in all 9 prior cases. In 8 days, NDX is down 6% from ATH. Remember, good and bad days often cluster together. Don't fall for the bear trap.
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1st Large $VIX spike since July
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JP van Essche retweeted
Rotation is happening under the surface. Crazy to think given the -20% move in Korea and the US Ai related moves. Resilient market.. so far
All it took was a collapse of the AI stocks for market internals to shoot higher... S&P 500 10-day A/D line now overbought, % of stocks above their 50-DMAs and 200-DMAs headed higher, cumulative A/D line headed higher, and same for net new highs.
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Michael Burry closed all his ai shorts last week btw😂 Before this crash
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JP van Essche retweeted
The indexes are bifurcated and fail to tell the story beneath the surface. A large number of tech names are down 25% and many are down as much 50% or more. There are more than one-third of S&P 500 stocks down 20% or more, with only 34% of NASDAQ stock trading above their 200-day moving average lines. A stealth correction is already well underway. minervini.com
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JP van Essche retweeted
A LOT of dip buying out there this week. The 3x Long Semi ETF $SOXL is pacing for its largest week of net inflows EVER.
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JP van Essche retweeted
Cheaper mortgages? Lower gas prices? Sorry… best I can do is war in the Middle East.
PPI 🔥🔥🔥 PPI MoM: 1.3% vs 0.6% exp. PPI YoY: 6.3% vs 5.4% exp. Trump’s 2nd term… red box is Iran War.
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There has has effectively been a correction in semis every month this year except April/May SMH 10%+ drawdowns: 2026: 7 2025: 3 2024: 3 2023: 2 2022: 4
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11 stocks in my universe up 4% on the day 385 down 4% on the day What a massive POS market we have on our hands $QQQ $SPY $IWM
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Replying to @ZaStocks
💯 agree. Trump had a great set up. Ai is a generational economic boom. And he fucked it up.
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JP van Essche retweeted
This war in Iran has been one of the biggest blunders I’ve seen in a long time. Making everything more expensive as inflation soars while pushing yields higher and putting additional pressure on consumers. Not to mention the unnecessary uncertainty for businesses and markets. And for what? What exactly has been accomplished? Unreal.
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AI is outgrowing copper. The next bottleneck is moving data fast enough — and optics is the solution. $LITE — Makes the lasers that move AI data using light. $AAOI — Builds optical transceivers connecting AI servers and data centers. $AXTI — Supplies the specialty semiconductor materials used in optical chips. $MRVL — Designs custom AI silicon and high-speed data-center networking chips. $CRDO — Makes high-speed connectivity chips and cables for AI clusters. $ANET — Builds the switches connecting massive AI and cloud networks.
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JP van Essche retweeted
At the end of the day, I’m gonna get in the leaders someway or somehow. That’s the attitude I have & think you need to have to be a growth swing trader looking to outperform. However, sometimes we can’t force the right environment & need to wait to press the gas until confirmation. The candles yesterday in Semis are perfect example. In April these names would be ripping pre mkt after yesterday’s candles instead AMD is down 12pts from AH highs last night.
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It has basically never been more idiotic to be bearish on the AI hardware trade than right now
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According to $GS, consumer discretionary had its worst month in years in September... consumer sentiment is also the worst in years and breadth is still quite low. Not something you see at a market top
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JP van Essche retweeted
Sharing some of my thoughts on the recent weakness across AI and semiconductor names. One thing I've always believed is that technicals often tell us about strength or weakness before the fundamentals and headlines catch up. Looking at the broader semiconductor and memory theme, the recent price action is becoming concerning. I was expecting memory & semi stocks to build the right side of their bases, but looking back, the weakness we saw around June-July may have been an early warning sign. We had a decent bounce over the last three months, but instead of building stronger bases, several names are now testing or losing their 50-day and 100-day moving averages. On top of that, $NVDA is showing signs of a failed breakout, while $TSM, $SMTC, $NBIS and $LITE have also seen failed breakout attempts. Meanwhile, $AVGO has slipped below its 200-day SMA. When stocks spend months consolidating, you want to see accumulation, higher lows, improving relative strength, and eventually a breakout. Instead, we're seeing failed breakout attempts, lower highs, and key moving averages being tested across multiple leaders in SemiConductor sector mainly. One or two stocks showing weakness is normal, but when several leaders within the same theme start showing similar technical deterioration, that's something worth paying attention to. A LOT of poor price action across semiconductor and AI names lately. Does this mean the AI infrastructure cycle is over? Not at all! I still believe AI infrastructure has significant long-term growth potential. But there's a difference between being bullish on a theme over the next 3-5 years and ignoring deteriorating price action in the short term. As much as I'm bull at heart, you can't ignore what the market is telling you. Sometimes being patient and selective is just as important as being aggressive when the opportunities are there. That being said, software, healthcare, crypto, and several other themes are holding up relatively well. Even some international markets, like Brazil, are showing encouraging signs of strength. Just because one theme is correcting doesn't mean the entire market is falling apart. Capital can rotate from one area to another, and new market leaders can emerge while previous leaders consolidate. The opportunities haven't disappeared. They're just not necessarily in the same places they were a few months ago!
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