That's the power of Intel inside.
Joined October 2023
- Tweets2.3K
- Following249
- Followers2.2K
- Likes5.7K
I discussed the broader 14A / Fab strategy in my Substack here:
intelpromaxultra.substack.co…
Naga’s latest comments on 14A closely align with the framework I laid out back in my August Substack article.
I estimated Intel 14A to be 1.68x and TSMC A14 to be 1.75x, which implies 14A would trail A14 by only ~4% in perf. (Naga: Within ~5% to A14).
More broadly, my model also places 18A/A-P (1.43x~1.56x) between TSMC N3 and N2P (1.38x~1.63x), which also aligns with Naga's claim in the interview.
Naga Chandrasekaran who is the EVP, CTO, and GM, Intel Foundry. In a meeting with Keybanc told them:
Intel, "Expects 14A performance to be within 5% of TSM's A14".
Intel is not afraid of CoPoS. "Sees sustained leadership in
advanced packaging with EMIB-T even with TSM introducing CoPoS".
I must say that the news around 14A PPA is truly extraordinary given 14A yields and ramp are extremely aggressive. Intel is finally sticking its neck out to say how their nodes compare with a % range to TSMC.
Note goes on to say that Intel has a server part on 14A in 2028. Coral Rapids might not be on 18A-U if that's the case. Coral could be 14A, but I have capacity concerns (2029 is the big ramp, pointings towards 2029 Ohio volume)
$INTC
Under Intel’s own push toward concentrating HVM in 1–2 major sites, that makes a dedicated third 14A geography in Israel less compelling.
But that does not make Fab 38 less valuable. It can remain Intel’s manufacturing wildcard:
intelpromaxultra.substack.co…
Oregon still has another expansion lever: D1X Module 4.
Intel has already secured development approval for the future module, giving the campus another major block of advanced-node capacity when needed.
Combine that with:
• Existing D1X modules (M1, M2, M3)
• Older fab space that can be repurposed (D1B, D1C, D1D)
• >1M sq. ft. of cleanroom
• Brownfield retrofit potential
• Future Module 4 expansion
and Oregon already looks like an HVM-scale manufacturing campus, even while preserving substantial space for technology development.
I also find Intel’s increasing use of the “Fab 25” designation interesting. The naming fits a broader transition in Oregon’s role, from primarily a TD complex toward a formal part of Intel’s HVM network.
The distinction between “development fab” and “production fab” is becoming much less rigid.
Intel is undergoing a paradigm shift in how it allocates fab capacity. Historically, Oregon played the role of the technology-development hub to develop the process → early ramp → transfer HVM elsewhere.
For 14A, that model is changing.
Intel now wants Oregon to participate in high-volume manufacturing. Physically, that makes much more sense than it may sound.
Oregon campus already has >1M sq. ft. of cleanroom space, with a substantial portion capable of supporting EUV-based process flows.
As older processes roll off, Intel can reuse that footprint through the same playbook we are now seeing in Ireland: cleanroom retrofit + process-flow splitting + old tool reuse / new tooling.
Oregon is no longer just where Intel invents the next node, it is becoming a place where Intel can manufacture it at scale.
Exactly.
I was told by an Intel person that Lip-Bu meant Q1 2028 volume production for Intel 14A
Just to clarify
Thank you for your attention to this matter
$INTC
🧵(2/2) That is my current view of the Intel 3 capacity plan. The more interesting question, however, is why Intel would need anything close to that much Intel 3 capacity.
And why Fab 38 suddenly matters much more.
Full analysis:
intelpromaxultra.substack.co…
How much Intel 3 capacity is Intel actually planning to build? My answer is, 100k WSPM. 🧵(1/2)
Sounds abstract? In PC terms, 100k WSPM is enough leading-edge compute silicon for 45 million PCs every month, almost 2X the global monthly PC market.
Intel obviously will not use Intel 3 this way. But how could Intel get anywhere close to that scale?
1. Ireland Fab 34's original production target was 40k WSPM.
2. Splitting the P1276 (Intel 3) process flow between Fab 24 and 34 can improve capacity by 30%, or +12k.
3. Another $5.7B investment for fab upgrade and additional equipment can increase the capacity by another +19k.
Ireland Fab 10/14/24 have a substantial 14nm footprint (40k WSPM). As legacy Xeon ramp down, more cleanroom, utilities and equipment become available for newer processes.
My estimate for Ireland therefore becomes 71k WSPM.
4. When Fab 38.1 joins the fleet, it could eventually contribute up to ~28k WSPM as its fab-floor scale being 70% versus Fab 34.
Put it together: 71k + 28k ~ 100k WSPM
Which brings us back to Fab 38.
If Intel expects Intel 3 to remain strategically important through CWF, DMR and beyond, a second HVM site starts to make much more sense.
That is why Fab 38 + Intel 3 is much more logical than it first appears:
intelpromaxultra.substack.co…
Diamond Rapids goes even further.
Its CPU compute moves to Intel 18A-P, but the package still contains:
• Intel 3-T base tiles
• Intel 3 Fabric Hub tiles
So Intel 3 effectively changes jobs over time:
🌊GNR / SRF: Intel 3 is the compute node
🌲CWF: Intel 3 becomes the base-die node
💎DMR: Intel 3 becomes both base-die and fabric / I/O silicon
In other words, Intel 3 does not disappear when Intel moves leading compute to 18A, it moves underneath it.
And that creates a counterintuitive manufacturing dynamic:
Ramping more 18A products may actually require Intel to ramp more Intel 3 alongside them.
That is why I increasingly view Intel 3 as a bridge node rather than merely a transitional node.
This is why Intel 3 is not simply another constrained node.
A faster Intel 3 ramp does more than give Intel more Granite Rapids wafers. It helps Intel rebalance the rest of its manufacturing network around the next generation of Xeons.
And the story does not end when compute moves to 18A.
Clearwater Forest moves its compute silicon to Intel 18A, but still relies on Intel 3-family base dies underneath those compute chiplets, while I/O remains on Intel 7.
Why does Intel need more Intel 3 so badly? Granite Rapids is only part of the answer.
Intel 3 sits on a critical path in Intel’s server transition because Intel is trying to solve two capacity bottlenecks at the same time:
1. Ramp more Intel 3 for next-generation compute
2. Reallocate more Intel 7 toward next-generation server I/O
Those two moves reinforce each other.
More Intel 3 compute + More Intel 7 allocated to next-gen I/O👉Faster GNR ramp👉Faster GNR replacement of SPR / EMR👉Less Intel 7 consumed by legacy Xeon👉More Intel 7 available for GNR / CWF I/O👉Faster next-generation server ramp
My latest deep dive:
Kiryat Gat Mystery: What Is Intel Quietly Preparing Inside Fab 38?
intelpromaxultra.substack.co…
🚨 New Substack Article Alert
Intel has said surprisingly little about its $25B Kiryat Gat expansion since 2024. But Fab 38 has not been sitting still.
I spent the past year tracking OSINT around the site. And my interpretation is that Fab 38.1 has entered the tool-install phase, while Fab 38.2 appears to be resuming facility fit-out behind it.
Which raises the more interesting question:
What is Intel preparing Fab 38.1 to produce? 👇
