Analyzing private equity, private credit & institutional capital. Join the weekly email list!
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Joined January 2025
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Data centers are being funded through SPV structures. Hyperscalers lease the facility, and often provide equity and guarantee the debt.
This allows Big Tech to fund huge projects while keeping the debt off balance sheet.
Direct lending fundraising jumped 35% YTD through the third quarter, per Preqin.
Retail investors are pulling back, but institutional investors are still very bullish on private credit.
Good lawyers make a huge difference in deals.
You don’t appreciate it until years later, when some random term counsel negotiated ends up saving you millions.
Most big firms have a list of approved law firms for this reason.
When I was an IB analyst, building a deck or model took days or weeks.
Claude can do 90% of it in minutes.
I don’t see how junior headcount across finance doesn’t get crushed over the next few years.
Private credit is losing borrowers to the syndicated market.
$16B of private credit loans were refinanced by the BSL market in 3Q’26, the highest level since 2022, per Reuters.
With rates still elevated, companies are turning to the BSL market to lower interest costs.
PE exits are extremely concentrated at the top of the market.
US exit count plunged 34% YoY through Q3’26, while total exit value actually increased 19%, per CohnReznick.
Larger, higher quality PortCos are finding buyers. The rest of the market is still stuck.
Not all investors need the same level of diligence.
Secured lenders just need to know if they’ll get repaid. Equity investors need a much more full picture of a business and its drivers.
PE firms will spend months on diligence and build 2,000 row models.
Hyperscaler debt issuance has surged 10x since 2024. The flood of AI debt is starting to weigh on the market.
The hardest jump in IB, PE and private credit is moving from VP to Director.
Moving up means building relationships and driving business.
Most VPs can execute deals. It's much harder to source them.
LMEs are used by distressed companies to avoid bankruptcy.
They exploit credit doc loopholes to force lenders to extend maturities + raise new money.
These deals don’t fix the underlying problem, but they buy companies more time.
Full LME primer ⬇️
illiquidinsights.com/p/restr…
