@ILClimatologist

Official account for the Illinois State Climatologist Office. Located at the Illinois State Water Survey and Prairie Research Institute

 Urbana, IL
go.illinois.edu/climatologist
Joined October 2018
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Recent snow is deceiving; we are still in extreme drought in east-central IL. Thru today, 2025 is the 3rd driest on record in Champaign-Urbana, driest since 1914. We need at least 0.75" of precipitation before the end of the year to avoid having the driest year on record in C-U.
Plot that shows the total precipitation each year through December 4th in Champaign-Urbana, Illinois.

ALT Plot that shows the total precipitation each year through December 4th in Champaign-Urbana, Illinois.

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Like it or not (I like it), we got an early taste of winter. Champaign-Urbana had 2.3" of accumulation overnight. It's pretty rare to get this much snow this early. In fact, this is the earliest 2" or more snowfall in C-U since 1989. #ilwx
Graphic showing the first day of snowfall of at least 2 inches in Champaign-Urbana over the past 120 years.

ALT Graphic showing the first day of snowfall of at least 2 inches in Champaign-Urbana over the past 120 years.

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I love these @CoCoRaHS graphics summarizing precipitation in October and in 2025 at my gauge. 10" below normal year-to-date after another drier month. cocorahs.org/
Graphs show month-to-date, year-to-date, and water-year-to-date precipitation totals at a CoCoRaHS gauge in Champaign County.

ALT Graphs show month-to-date, year-to-date, and water-year-to-date precipitation totals at a CoCoRaHS gauge in Champaign County.

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The first fall freeze expected tonight for much of Illinois. That would be only 3-5 days behind average in central and northern IL, and right around average in south-central IL. #ilwx Also: check out @MidwestClimate's awesome freeze date tool: mrcc.purdue.edu/freeze/freez….
Map of average first fall 32 degree freeze dates across Illinois. The data are from 1991 to 2020.

ALT Map of average first fall 32 degree freeze dates across Illinois. The data are from 1991 to 2020.

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#Drought has worsened in much of Illinois, despite recent rain. 86% of the state is in at least moderate drought, and extreme drought is now present in east-central Illinois in this week's @DroughtCenter Drought Monitor. Updated drought summary here: go.illinois.edu/IllinoisDrou…
Drought update infographic from the Illinois State Water Survey. The graphic includes the October 7th edition of the US Drought Monitor for Illinois, and links to the CMOR drought impact report system.

ALT Drought update infographic from the Illinois State Water Survey. The graphic includes the October 7th edition of the US Drought Monitor for Illinois, and links to the CMOR drought impact report system.

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Another dry month in Illinois added to significant longer precipitation deficits. Maps (from @akrherz) show the precipitation departures from normal for the 2024-25 water year (left) and the 2025 calendar year (right). Champaign is >1 foot behind on precipitation in 2025. #ilwx
Maps of precipitation departures from normal across Illinois. The maps show precipitation deficits for the 2024-25 water year and the 2025 calendar year.

ALT Maps of precipitation departures from normal across Illinois. The maps show precipitation deficits for the 2024-25 water year and the 2025 calendar year.

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#Drought has intensified across Illinois. The state has gone from < 4% area in drought to > 60% area in drought in 4 weeks. Impacts include very high fire risk, very low river levels, and plant stress. Keep reporting impacts and conditions at: go.illinois.edu/cmor
Drought infographic for Illinois, updated on September 18th, 2025. The graphic shows the current US Drought Monitor map for Illinois, and a summary of current impacts.

ALT Drought infographic for Illinois, updated on September 18th, 2025. The graphic shows the current US Drought Monitor map for Illinois, and a summary of current impacts.

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The @NWSWPC forecast is more bullish for rain across the state in the next 7 days. A wet week is helpful, but we will need prolonged wetter conditions to substantially improve existing drought.
A map showing the 7 day precipitation forecast across the US from the National Weather Service, current as of September 18th.

ALT A map showing the 7 day precipitation forecast across the US from the National Weather Service, current as of September 18th.

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#drought is intensifying in Illinois: go.illinois.edu/IllinoisDrou… Highlights: -> 34% of IL in moderate to severe drought -> ⬆️Risk of field and grass fires as harvest picks up -> Low river levels in central & southern IL -> Hot + dry weather this week will worsen drought
Graphic showing updated drought conditions across Illinois for September 11th, including the latest US Drought Monitor map, and the link to the CMOR system for drought impact reporting.

ALT Graphic showing updated drought conditions across Illinois for September 11th, including the latest US Drought Monitor map, and the link to the CMOR system for drought impact reporting.

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Drought and thunderstorm frequency aren't always at odds, but these two maps line up fairly well in the central US this year. We've had the driest first 8 months of the year since 2012 here in east-central IL, about 5.5" below the 1991-2020 normal.
Map of the rank of total precipitation from January through August in 2025, by climate division.

ALT Map of the rank of total precipitation from January through August in 2025, by climate division.

Andrew Pritchard@skydrama9 Sep 2025
Portions of central Illinois and far western Indiana are still waiting for their first Severe Thunderstorm Watch of 2025.
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A dry August in Champaign-Urbana has added to what has been a very dry year. Year-to-date, 2025 is the driest year in C-U since 1988. #ilwx
Graphic showing total precipitation between January 1 and August 28 in Champaign, Illinois.

ALT Graphic showing total precipitation between January 1 and August 28 in Champaign, Illinois.

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This growing season has been a roller coaster for rainfall in southern Illinois. Areas that were 5-8" wetter than average in April are now 3-5" drier than average so far in August. #ilwx
Map of precipitation as a departure from average in April 2025 in southern Illinois.

ALT Map of precipitation as a departure from average in April 2025 in southern Illinois.

Map of precipitation as a departure from average in August 2025 in southern Illinois.

ALT Map of precipitation as a departure from average in August 2025 in southern Illinois.

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After picking up nearly 5" of rain in less than 12 hours, our @WARM_ISWS station in Fayette County has only had 0.08" since... and no measurable rain in August so far. #ilwx
Plot of 5-minute rainfall observations from the Illinois Climate Network station in Brownstown, in Fayette County, Illinois. The bars show the 5 minute observations and the black line shows the accumulation of total rainfall for the event.

ALT Plot of 5-minute rainfall observations from the Illinois Climate Network station in Brownstown, in Fayette County, Illinois. The bars show the 5 minute observations and the black line shows the accumulation of total rainfall for the event.

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What does that kind of rainfall variability do to soil moisture? Glad you asked... the 4", 8", and 20" soil moisture plots from that @WARM_ISWS station in Brownstown are all crashing. Tell-tale signs of flash drought in the area.
Plots of soil moisture at 4", 8", and 20" depths at the Illinois Climate Network station in Fayette County. The blue line shows the current soil moisture condition between April and August, and the black line shows the 20-year average soil moisture condition.

ALT Plots of soil moisture at 4", 8", and 20" depths at the Illinois Climate Network station in Fayette County. The blue line shows the current soil moisture condition between April and August, and the black line shows the 20-year average soil moisture condition.

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Unfortunately, far southern Illinois has been moving back to #drought (and rather quickly) in recent weeks. conta.cc/4mIObMu. Shout out to @ClimateMolly and @NOAADrought for the information.

Drought Early Warning for Lower Midwest

Email from Parts of the Region Rapidly Worsening Amid Dry Conditions and Extreme Heat Lower Midwest Drought Early Warning   National Integrated Drought Information System Drought.gov   August 19, 2025

myemail.constantcontact.com
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We just hit 100 degrees at the @NWSLincolnIL COOP station in Ogden (central IL) over the weekend. Persistently high humidity has kept our highs below the triple digits most of this summer.
Wisconsin State Climatology Office@WI_ClimateSCO18 Aug 2025
No 100° Club for us yet! Wisconsin's hottest temp so far this year is 98° (in Kenosha). In the last decade, the state has reached triple-digit temperatures only three times — not that we're complaining! 😌 How about you all @ILClimatologist, @MidwestClimate, @Ohio_Climate ?
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Illinois State Climatologist retweeted
NWS St. Louis
@NWSStLouis15 Aug 2025
Here we go again. Heat and humidity are BACK. The heat index will reach 100 to 105 degrees each day for the next several days. That makes it hard for your body to cool itself. Drink plenty of water and take lots of cool breaks. This heat wave is over by Wednesday.
A man sweats in the heat

ALT A man sweats in the heat

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Illinois State Climatologist retweeted
Matt Reardon
@mcreard14 Aug 2025
A La Niña Watch has been issued by the CPC accounting for a likely La Niña episode this winter.
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC14 Aug 2025
ENSO-neutral is most likely through late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in Aug-Oct). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to #ENSO-neutral. A #LaNina Watch is in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a…
Bar chart reflecting the percentage chances of La Nina, Neutral, and El Nino from July-August-September 2025 through March-April-May 2026. For more information on explicit chances of exceeding Nino 3.4 thresholds please see https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php

ALT Bar chart reflecting the percentage chances of La Nina, Neutral, and El Nino from July-August-September 2025 through March-April-May 2026. For more information on explicit chances of exceeding Nino 3.4 thresholds please see https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php

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Illinois State Climatologist retweeted
Prairie Research Institute@PrairieResInst13 Aug 2025
⛈️ Intense rainstorms are hitting Illinois harder and more often because of climate change. The @watersurvey is tracking these extreme events to help improve flood maps and models so communities can better prepare. 👉 Read the latest @ILClimatologist blog in the thread
Raining in downtown Chicago.

ALT Raining in downtown Chicago.

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Illinois State Climatologist retweeted
Molly Woloszyn@ClimateMolly6 Aug 2025
The first #Drought in the #Midwest webinar is taking place tomorrow. Speakers will provide an update on drought conditions, impacts, and outlooks in the Midwest, and drought early warning efforts in Ohio. Register now! @NOAADrought register.gotowebinar.com/reg…
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