Founder, Kenro Capital - Growth secondaries in India and SEA. Ex- MD Sequoia India/ Peak XV. ex Inv Banking at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank

Singapore
Joined September 2010
Congrats @RajanAnandan on this head full of dreams book..looking forward to reading it!
🚀 @RajanAnandan believes India will have its first $100 billion venture-funded company by 2030. Today, it doesn't have a single one. 💰 What makes the bet even bolder is the money. Last year, the world poured around $450 billion into startups, and only $12 billion of it came to India. That's less than three cents of every venture dollar, for the world's third-largest startup ecosystem. 🤔 So how does a country lift off on so little fuel? And where will that first $100 billion company come from? 🎙️ Peak XV Partners' Rajan Anandan and veteran investor Saurabh Srivastava, co-authors of 'Lift-Off Nation', join Shereen Bhan on Young Turks Reloaded. 📺 Full episode drops Thursday | 6:30 PM @ShereenBhan | @TheSaurabhSri
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Piyush Gupta retweeted
UPI is run as an ecosystem by banks and fintechs and NPCI. It is not funded or run by the Govt. When Govt funds the subsidies paid for UPI , that amount comes from tax payers pocket. Moving to market linked pricing mechanism removes this tax burden and directly links the cost to large businesses which benefit from UPI. Think logically : If there was no UPI , customers will have to keep cash and businesses have to handle and store cash. That’s not free.
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Piyush Gupta retweeted
The introduction of MDR on UPI would materially change the narrative around fintechs. The sector has long been viewed as one where scale has been built without a clear path to monetisation. A sustainable revenue model for UPI would alter that perception, improve investor sentiment and give the fintech ecosystem a significant boost.
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Credit growth at multi-year highs with decadal low credit costs. Good quality expansion of credit should lead to increasing economic activity.
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DPI is unforgiving. After seven years, only ~14% of 2017-vintage funds have returned more than 1x DPI. Most 2016 to 2018 funds are still underwater on cash (Cambridge Associates). Here are four principles I have learned since a ~$100M investment and subsequent IPO filing:
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Piyush Gupta retweeted
Today, Parliament moved an amendment to the Payment & Settlement Act, which is a step in the right direction towards implementing MDR in some shape or form—without impacting customers, while allowing the recovery of reasonable charges from merchants for higher-value transactions that already attract such charges on debit and credit cards. While this will undoubtedly bring about a debate, it is important to remember that both Brazil’s PIX and China’s real-time payment systems have always had merchant charges of 30-40bps. Yet both have achieved over 90% penetration across users and merchants, compared to roughly 35–40% in India, as per reports published by the RBI and NPCI. UPI today processes nearly 23 billion interoperable payment transactions every month—the largest real-time payment system in the world. Looking at the near-zero investment scenario over the last six years, the pace of growth is naturally slowing, even though there is still an opportunity to increase penetration by almost 3x across both consumers and merchants. For us to get to 90% penetration, and to take UPI global, startups, fintechs, and banks will need to fund this expansion through continued investments in IT, innovation, and cyber security. These costs have increased by almost 300% over the last 12–24 months. While there should be some recovery of these investments, P2P transactions—and charges to consumers—should continue to remain zero. There has always been a monetisation model for electricity, water, roads, and mobile phones, even when much of the infrastructure has been built by the government. That is what has enabled these sectors to keep investing, expand access, and fuel economic growth. Achieving 90% penetration will drive significant formalisation of the economy, reduce the use of cash, enable flow-based credit for small businesses—which is the need of the hour—and create immense long-term benefits for the country.
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Annie Duke, world-class poker player turned decision scientist, on the single biggest alpha leak in professional investing: "expert investors are alpha generators when putting risk on. they give alpha back on their exit decisions." "endowments when they put positions on are generating between 120 and 180 basis points of alpha." "their exit decisions? they're giving about 70 to 80 basis points back." "this is why the option to quit is so incredibly valuable. this is the place where we can generate a lot of alpha compared to our competitors." 120-180 bps generated on entries. 70-80 bps given back on exits. across endowments, intraday traders, and professional fund managers, the data all says the same thing. the entry often isn't the problem. the exit is.
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How amazing to see our home grown founder Kunal being chosen to lead WhatsApp - One of the biggest products globally! And the $900M investment in CRED to get him on board..just WOW. Congrats @kunalb11 - may your wings continue carrying you far
It’s been a minute. 2015–2018 - Exited FreeCharge. Spent time learning and investing. - Pondered about: Why can't trust be rewarded? Started with $1M of personal capital. - Launched CRED to reward people for paying credit card bills on time. 2019–2025 - Built a system run by a team that values ownership, judgment, and craft. - Grew from 0 to 17M members by aligning incentives with behaviour. - Built several products during COVID lockdowns. - Raised $900M+ from global investors. Did 4 ESOP buybacks. - Made Indiranagar and IPL ads slightly more interesting. - Received a full stack of regulatory licences. - Lost 35 kilos. - Scaled from 0 to ~$325M ( ~₹3,200 crore) in annual revenue across payments, lending, insurance, commerce, wealth, and credit cards. 2026 - First profitable quarter (yet occasionally asked what our business model is) - Raised another $900M from Meta in primary and secondary capital. - Announcing our 5th ESOP buyback. Today CRED is ready for its next phase. I am stepping back and @miten steps in as interim CEO, partnered with an incredibly talented team. He has been heading strategy and finance and suffering me since 2020. I’m stepping away from the operating role and will continue as a shareholder. My commitment doesn’t change. Just the role. Extremely grateful to our members, partners, regulators, and investors who made this possible. And to our board, Shailendra, Micky, Saurabh for their extraordinary conviction. Team CRED, I’ll still expect you to be a 10x version of yourselves. As for me, I’ll be joining Meta to lead WhatsApp globally. Meta comes in as a minority investor in CRED. No access to member data. While it’s come very far, the delta between WhatsApp today and its full potential is massive. I look forward to working with Mark, Chris, and the leadership across Meta for the next step in WhatsApp’s journey. Will, thank you for scaling something the world relies on quietly, and for making this transition smooth. Onwards.
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Buybacks are a very effective and a counter cyclical tool for a Company to drive value for its shareholders..esp where trading liquidity is thin and even a little bit of market stress pushes down prices too much
Market buybacks are back, as SEBI notes in its meeting. As usual, I will write a Bill Ackman length post on this. You have been warned. Buybacks are better ways to return cash to shareholders than dividends. Because in a dividend, future earnings are divided among the same number of shares, but a buyback means the company effectively reduces the number of outstanding shares (the bought back shares are cancelled), so in a buyback future earnings are spread across lesser shares. There's a tax advantage too, now. Current taxation means long term taxes on shares you sell in the market are at 12.5% long term, 20% short term. Dividends are taxed as income so could be as much as 36%. (Promoters, if they participate in a buyback, pay 36%. For dividends, if they earn more than 2 cr. the dividend income taxation can be 39%. So it's beneficial for promoters too) And then, dividends have a TDS of 10% on payments > 5000 or so, so you get less cash. Companies can buy back in two ways. 1) A tender issue where there's a window for everyone to tender shares, promoters too. Typically done at a premium to market price so that people will tender. This is bad - why would you prefer that your company pays more for its shares than the market is willing to allow? Inefficient, but the pro is that everyone gets a proportionate buyback so if you have 1% of the shares, you are going to get 1% of the buyback amount at least. You could get more if other people don't tender and you tender more. 2) Market buybacks means the company buys back its shares from the market itself, directly. Efficient because it uses the cash better. Market buybacks were a pain in the previous taxation regime, where any buyback was taxed at the company level with a tax of 20% paid by the company on the buyback. But that meant only 83% of distributable cash was available to distribute. And also, because the company paid the buyback tax, shares bought from shareholders were tax-free for them. How does this work in a market buyback? It's a pain. You sell 100 shares. You have no idea who bought the shares. If 37 shares were bought by the company and the remaining 63 were bought by other participants in the market, only the exchange knows who bought and who sold how much. So the exchange had to match them through a separate trading window opened for buybacks, operated by a merchant banker. The trading terminals of the exchange would display that an order was being bought by the company. The exchange would send an email to whoever sold shares to the company saying hello, you've sold X shares to the company. Not only is this a pain, it's also gamed - since the company, brokers and the merchant bankers knew about this separate window and the purchaser identity (which isn't in most front ends of discount brokers, only in some terminals that are available to fewer people), it's also a mess that a few people could use that trading window and get lower tax treatment. A person could be almost all the volume in the regular market and still not get any shares sold to the company at the lower tax rate because they didn't use the window. Now, it's all changed. No trading windows. No having to reveal company's identity as purchaser. SEBI fixed this. Tax rules have changed, so market buybacks don't have the pain of having to inform people that the company matched your order. So SEBI has re-allowed market buybacks. And then, since promoter taxation is worse, promoters being allowed to sell during a buyback would bring back the pain that exchanges would have to track every sale - therefore, SEBI says all promoter sales would be blocked during the buyback period. Merchant bankers are no longer required for market buybacks. The company can have its own trading account and buy all their shares back. Saves fees. Saves the pain that merchant bankers know when shares are being sold or bought (reduces insider trading issues). The buybacks now have to be done within 66 trading days, roughly three months. And 40% of it has to be done in the first half. This is there to reduce the mess of a big buyback announcement and then not actually buying. (and then going to sebi and saying oh no, couldn't buy) A company can buyback shares only once in a six month period or so, and can't issue new shares for six months. That is in the companies act, so that will continue. In essence, companies that have lots of cash can (and should) buy back through market buybacks now. That's me off the soapbox for now. Put questions.
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Piyush Gupta retweeted
Broad spend data Last Sunday, we did our largest ever daily Txns. Bigger than last Diwali. Absolutely nothing special about last Sunday 🤷 Same store txns and share of digital payments is growing. ps: -we won new merchants in period -we think today > last Sunday
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India needs to figure out how to wire 1B to @SarvamAI asap to train models. Similar to #nuclear the world will divide into countries that have #recursiveselfimprovement vs countries that don’t. This is as important as #Pokharan was @TrivediVedant @aaditya @Sid_1_0 @AjeyGore
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Great to see @PineLabs investing in the future of payments
India is now ready for autonomous Agentic payments. We just demonstrated a LIVE transaction between 2 agents, end to end using UPI as the payment layer We had to solve for two major areas: 1. A highly sterile environment for the agents to operate in. Identity, authority, spend control and auditable. 2. A Payment protocol, Pine Labs Payment protocol (P3P)extending UPI’s mandate framework for payments between agents. Put those together we showed a price watch based, agent led, txn. No one can say India has barriers for Agentic payments. We just broke thru. Read 👇🏼
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Piyush Gupta retweeted
The Three Humans Left in a VC Firm Fred Wilson, co-founder, Union Square Ventures, interviewed by Michael Mignano (USV) [I post one executive summary daily of an interview I enjoyed and learnt from. I loved this interview that @mignano did with @fredwilson, who I've learnt a tremendous amount from on the board of Coinbase. Tons of great nuggets for founders and investors.] Summary: After 40 years in venture, Wilson has rebuilt USV around a single conviction. Only three things in the firm still need a human: picking the thesis, building relationships with founders working in that thesis, and supporting them after the check. Everything else, including sourcing, diligence, term sheets, and CRM, is being handed to agents. The interview is a working sketch of what a venture firm looks like when the back half of its job becomes software, and a clear read on what stays human-only and why. 1. The Three Humans Left. A year ago Wilson wrote a memo to his partners saying that if he were starting USV from scratch today, only three jobs would stay with humans: high-level thesis development, building relationships with founders inside that thesis, and supporting them after the check. Everything else gets handed to agents. USV is now executing on that memo, not theorizing about it. For founders raising, this is the new operating profile of the firm sitting across the table. 2. Agents Love Data Rooms. "I hate data rooms. Agents love data rooms." USV no longer asks a junior associate to scrub the data room before a term sheet. An agent reads the room and answers questions in conversation: cap table, vesting, founder ownership, anything in the corpus. The effect on partner time is direct, with less work on the parts of the job no one enjoys and more time with founders. 3. Term Sheets Without Lawyers. USV's term sheets are now written by an agent, with no outside counsel stamp at the term-sheet stage. The firm seeded the agent with standard term sheets by sector and by stage, then partners shape each document in conversation with the agent. Wilson does not yet trust an agent to write long-form definitive docs. The implication for founders: term sheets land faster, with less round-trip friction, and the cost structure of the next-generation venture firm starts to drop. 4. The Kill Zone Test. Wilson ran a sample contract through a legal-AI startup and through raw Claude Code, side by side, and Claude's markup was better. "All of legal AI is in the kill zone." The test is portable to almost any AI vendor pitch. If a wrapper company cannot outperform the raw model on the thing it sells, the wrapper is paying for the privilege of being disrupted. Operators should run the same test before signing a multi-year contract. 5. No Wrappers Allowed. To survive the kill zone you cannot wrap a model. You have to rebuild the business model from scratch around the new economics. Cursor is the example Wilson reaches for: it has been hugely successful, but more developers are dropping back to raw Claude Code, and nothing stops Anthropic from shipping an IDE. A defensible AI company redesigns the workflow itself, so the foundation lab would have to abandon its current pricing model to copy. 6. Energy Is the AI Trade. About a third of USV's deployment now goes to energy, because no matter which model wins, the winner needs power. The firm has backed a decentralized model-training network and a company that turns each grid-scale solar and wind plant into a mini data center selling inference tokens. The trade is indexed to AI without forcing USV to pick the model. Builders hunting for a less crowded adjacent market should read the same memo, because the picks and shovels of AI run through electricity. 7. Sellers, Not Coders. The skill USV now overweights in founders is selling: recruiting, fundraising, convincing customers, inspiring teams. Forty years has taught Wilson that the founder who can tell the story and bring it to life wins more often than the founder who can write the code. The corollary is uncomfortable for technical founders. "Actually being able to write code is probably not a big deal anymore," though enough technical vision to see three moves ahead still matters. If you are a CEO who cannot recruit, that is now your constraint. 8. The 80–90% Open Source Window. Open-source models, especially the ones shipping out of Asia, are running at 80 to 90 percent of the quality of the closed frontier models. Right now the closed labs are subsidizing usage, so price does not force the comparison. When the labs have to charge a real margin, open source becomes a serious value alternative and the playing field levels. Wilson is not betting the firm on this outcome, but he is hedging into the quadrant where open source wins. 9. Founders Still Want Humans. Founders do not want to raise money from an agent. They want to know the human they are getting in business with, and that is why Wilson does not see VC automating itself out of a job in the short term. The firm can automate the back half of the workflow. The front half, sitting across from a founder at 11 p.m. when they have had a horrible day, stays human. 10. Don't Pass on Price. The biggest regrets of Wilson's career are deals he passed on because the price was too high. The market-clearing valuation will almost always feel uncomfortable a year later, and the right answer is to find a way in, even if that means buying secondary instead of leading the round. Saying no on price is a defensive move masquerading as discipline. Founders raising can use the line in negotiation, because a firm that walks on price is telling you it has not adjusted to the current market. 11. Offense Over Defense. Wilson lost $25 million in six months in 2001 and learned that getting it wrong is a byproduct of the job, not a verdict on the investor. He spent his first 15 years scared of losing money and only got good at venture once he stopped playing defense. The advice is harder to apply for someone breaking in, because the first checks really do matter, but the directive holds at every level. For operators, the analog is the founder who refuses to ship until the product is perfect, because you cannot win a game you are not playing. 12. The Relationship Is the Moat. After 40 years and an AI rebuild of the firm, Wilson's one-line summary of the venture business is the same as it was on day one. The relationship between the investor and the founder is the secret sauce. Everything else, including the work USV used to staff up to do, gets compressed by technology. Find great founders, build real relationships with them, and help them build great companies. If your venture pitch to LPs does not lead with that, you are pitching the wrong business.
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Piyush Gupta retweeted
we make & break 100s of commitments on @whatsapp every week "i will send it" "let me get back to you" then they slowly drop so i built Commit it understands conversations like a human. what you owe. what people owe you. automatically closes loops mitensampat.github.io/commit
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US consumers and the stock markets are on different planets.. credit card defaults and auto loan default rates are near/exceed GFC crisis level of 2009-10 (from @WSJ)
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Piyush Gupta retweeted
Interesting fact indeed, but it also explains bureaucratic inefficiency. Too much responsibility is concentrated around too few officers. A district magistrate or collector handles dozens of departments, policy coordination, and public grievances together. No one person can do all of this well. At the same time, much of administration still revolves around procedural sign-offs and file movement. Many of these layers are redundant legacies of the colonial and license raj eras. India needs bold reforms. Leaner administration. Better processes. Data-driven governance. And greater specialization where needed.
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Great reflections @AjeyGore!
Three months into a sabbatical, six things got hard to ignore. Most of them are stories I'd been telling myself for years and never bothered to examine. New post: The Comfortable Lie 👇 ajeygore.in/content/the-comf… For Curious, thread follows...
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As the world stumbles into a Sarajevo 1914 mini-redux, India's weaknesses in natl power sinews have been brutally exposed. Time to be US 1914 - focus inward, privilege domestic capacities, avoid diplomatic grandstands, let the world exhaust itself. My article in @timesofindia
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