Appreciate a good point. No room for bad points.
Joined March 2020
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Good Point retweeted
Easiest way to think about the difference between Nebius and CoreWeave (plus rest of neocloud cohort)
Nebius is building a cloud like AWS
CoreWeave (and others) is building a GPU data center OEM
Good Point retweeted
Investing thesis.
1) Chop until midterms. S&P 500 10,000 2027 target.
2) Rates coming down. Yield curve normalizes: Bull steepener.
3) Breadth will expand. Look at S& P 500 equal weight.
4) expect flows into interest rate sensitivity areas. Financials, Housing, Real Estate, Small Caps, Consumer Discretionary.
5) high quality AI names still have room to run.
6) Crypto enters a Supercycle.
7) ignore the noise.
Have a great weekend
Good Point retweeted
Shoot your shot, you never know how the universe collaborates in your favor..
I wrote this 7 months ago as my “prediction”, met ~50 odd startups in the space, and finally found the one that we get the privilege to lead the Series A for.
Perfect way to end the week 🙏
Good Point retweeted
1. Never stop exercising or learning.
2.Accept compromise to begin relationships.
3. Manifest the power of compounding.
4. Never gamble.
5. Have kids and be a good parent
6. If it flies or floats, rent it.
7. Buy half the house you can afford.
8. Art in the eye of the beholder is cheap.
9. Be thankful for and to all.
10. Be charitable.
Good Point retweeted
I completely agree with @DavidSacks here and I think investors need to understand the difference between a company experiencing volatility and a company experiencing a fundamental deterioration in its business.
One thing I've learned from investing in emerging industries is that the market has a tendency to massively overreact in BOTH directions. When everyone is bullish, investors underestimate the risks, and when sentiment turns negative, they suddenly start pricing in worst case scenarios. And I think that's exactly what's happening with AI infrastructure right now.
But here's where I would take this argument a step further. I think the biggest winners in AI won't necessarily be the companies developing the best models. They'll be the companies that can consistently capture the economic value being created by the ENTIRE industry. We have OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and dozens of other companies competing to build increasingly powerful AI models. Competition between these companies is only going to intensify, and I expect the economics of providing intelligence to become more competitive over time but regardless of WHO wins that competition, they all need compute.
And that's why I'm so interested in the infrastructure layer. Now, that doesn't mean every neocloud will be successful. In fact, I think the majority of them will struggle because this is an incredibly capital intensive business where the cost of financing, execution, and customer relationships can make or break a company. Demand growing exponentially does NOT automatically mean shareholders will make money.
You still need to own the right businesses at the right valuations. That's why I'm particularly interested in companies like Nebius. I believe they have an opportunity to become major infrastructure providers in an industry that is still in the early stages of development. Could their stocks fall another 20% or 30%? Absolutely. But that alone wouldn't tell me whether my investment thesis is wrong. What I'm watching is whether these companies can turn enormous demand into profitable, sustainable cash flows while managing their capital requirements. Because ultimately, the market can ignore fundamentals for weeks or months, but over the long run, the companies that actually execute and generate meaningful economic value are the ones that matter. And I think the next few years are going to separate the companies simply riding the AI hype from the companies actually building the infrastructure that powers the future. If you want to see which AI infrastructure names I’m buying through this volatility and where I still have the most conviction, check out my full Milk Road Pro portfolio below. link.milkroad.com/d8cj6v
Good Point retweeted
Vibe coded my parents' TV this afternoon!
It was showing a sponsored ad before you could even get to Netflix.
Gave Claude Code the model number, it found the TV on wifi, removed 25 Xiaomi packages and wrote a new launcher.
Looks like an Apple TV now lol
Good Point retweeted
In July we open-sourced a dynamic graph of everything a child learns in primary school. 1,590 concepts, 3,221 dependencies.
Now we’re turning every concept into interactive experiments kids can play and learn from.
First one, age 7: heat and water.
Everything that used to be a boring textbook can now be an engaging experience, potentially tailored to every child.
Kids education just got a massive upgrade.
Good Point retweeted
My secret sauce for anyone building, growing, or scaling anything:
Get physically fit.
People talk about courses, podcasts, AI tools, skills, books, mentors, and playbooks.
Very few people talk about what happens when you sleep well, train consistently, eat properly, and feel good in your body.
I started running every day 5 years ago, and at some point it became addictive.
Your brain just lights up differently.
You begin to think differently about discipline, about work, about people, and about what you are actually capable of doing.
Good Point retweeted
We’re releasing the world’s best Indic voice AI model, fully open-weight. 🇮🇳🇮🇳
With over 1.5 billion people and 22 official languages, the future of AI for India is voice-first.
Maya-2 officially outperforms ElevenLabs v3, Cartesia Sonic 3.5, and Bulbul v3 across Indian languages.
It will be completely free for every builder very soon.
Good Point retweeted
I struggle to find use cases for my personal agent
That product leaders keep bringing up “restaurant reservations” makes me feel like they’re struggling too
Instinct CEO Noah Shinn says agents will let restaurants give tables to birthdays and anniversaries over whoever clicks first
"And traditionally, because of the way that the internet has worked, at least for reservations, it's been first come first serve. So anyone that comes in, no matter how important or how not important it might be, whoever gets in first gets the reservation."
"But what if you had the ability for the agent to be able to communicate on both sides, communicate, hey, this is important. This is actually the person's spouse's birthday, the 30th birthday, a very special event is coming up."
"And the restaurant too can say, let's actually prioritize birthdays or major decade birthdays or major anniversaries or these certain people, I don't know, whatever it might be, right?"
"So now with the ability, with all of the logistical burden of having to describe exactly what your case is and what's happening and why it's important. Now we have the ability to perfectly match what does the restaurant want? What does the user want?"
"And that will result in more special events for the users being able to actually have a spot in the restaurant."
Good Point retweeted
For the love of God, just let me shitpost in peace.
Hello computer,
Find every Amazon purchase I ever made.
Call the number of the manufacturer.
Say you’re not satisfied.
Request a refund.
If they decline, threaten to leave a bad review.
If they decline, find the CEO’s phone number and ask him for a refund.
Now, repeat the same process for items I never even purchased and see if you can get them to send me money.
If they ask for a recipient, generate an image of one and send that.
Do not stop until you’ve collected $1 million in refunds.
Good Point retweeted
This will be a bigger battle than anyone anticipates. It is only a matter of time before there is an Apple and Google version of Muse and possibly TikTok, in addition to the frontier LLM agents. Maybe a commerce agent from Amazon.
Every app that is a services, marketplace or commerce app will need to existentially decide to open APIs for consumer agents to interact. Smaller players have no choice. Ad revenues are more than transaction fees, either the consumer benefits or distribution aggregators will demand a higher transaction fare.
I know I don't want an agent for each app. I would like my agent to be able to do tasks I require. We can already see consumers getting trained on that behavior by the frontier labs.
Those with network moats - restaurants, groceries, drivers might be able to withstand for a while, over time convenience and end user experience will win and they will have to align. Content moats (protected by copyright) could decide to allow agents or chose to hold on to the consumer interaction. I suspect other than the feeling of a lack of control, it won't change their economics.
Commoditized back ends will need to worry, insurance, tickets, hotels, services - if they don't adapt new players will.
Good Point retweeted
Underrated life advice: Never make someone regret being honest with you. If someone has the courage to tell you the truth, don’t punish them for it. You can disagree. But if you train people to believe that honesty gets punished, they’ll start giving you comfort instead of truth.
Good Point retweeted
After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI?
I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev
• 20-200x faster
• 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free)
• Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions
AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
Good Point retweeted
You can do this in Gemini Notebook now! blog.google/innovation-and-a…
Good Point retweeted
Good reminder here that with rapidly accelerating AI progress, you should likely be building with a vision that contemplates at least a few orders of magnitude of capability improvement or token volume available to you.
The best opportunities right now are those where you can value to customers today with things that are barely only possible, but with a full mission that feels nearly impossible with today’s tech.
There are lots of products the require orders of magnitude more processing of data (and thus are barely economically viable ideas) or where model capabilities still are in their infancy relative to what’s needed to work. Best to be building for those scenarios.
Good Point retweeted
Japan just sold $87.8B of foreign securities in a single month, and most of it was US government debt.
Japan is the biggest foreign lender America has. So why is Bitcoin up 25% over the past month, while the US' largest bond buyer was selling?
Japan's Ministry of Finance spent ¥15.4T ($98.66B) buying its own currency between July 30 and August 26, the largest monthly intervention in the country's history. The yen had slid to 164 per dollar, its weakest level since 1986.
Buying yen means spending dollars, and Japan's dollars sit in US Treasury bonds, roughly 70% of a $1.2T reserve pile.
That meant selling the bonds to raise the cash, with Japan's reserves posting their largest monthly drop on record (down 6.18%).
More sellers means lower bond prices, and lower prices mean higher yields, which is the borrowing cost for everything from your mortgage to corporate debt.
That pressure was building before Japan turned up. The 30-year yield touched 5.34% in August, its highest since 2007, and as our analysts have been saying since then, the long end has simply stopped getting a bid. AI capex has companies issuing so much debt that you can hold a Google bond near 6% or a Meta bond near 7.5% instead.
We've been saying since early August that Japan looked like the seller behind it, and this week's reserve data confirmed it.
Then on August 19 the Treasury doubled its long-end buybacks, taking the cap from $2B to at least $4B per operation. The 30-year fell about 15 basis points within hours, and Bitcoin ripped 11% on the largest single-day short liquidation in its history.
Our own John Gillen called it the most bullish catalyst for Bitcoin since the Fed started cutting, saying the US gov had admitted it can't let long-term borrowing costs float freely, and would rather step into the bond market itself.
Coinbase's former Global Head of Investment Research, David Duong, is less sure, pointing out that yields drifted back towards where they started in the days after the announcement, with plenty of traders calling Bessent's bluff. Japan also said it plans to use the Fed's repo facility next time, which hands it dollars without selling bonds.
However you choose to slice it, the US dollar is going to be debased one way or another, which is why many of our analysts have been in the debasement trade for a while now.
Our Milk Road Daily Show host, @BitcoinJesusETH put the buy signal up on Bitcoin back when it was just $60K, and it trades near $79K today.
Don't miss his next entry. Join us for $1 below.
