Ex-GS, JPM, UBS FICC strategist (PhD, CFA). Real-time macro squawk & chat with LiveSquawk. Watch: https://xitter.cf/t.co/mfT2vAr1Nt · 30 days free ↓ Not investment advice.
Zurich, Switzerland
Joined March 2012
- Tweets7K
- Following1K
- Followers2.8K
- Likes13K
Pinned Tweet
Inside GGMA Squawk & Chat in 30 seconds:
1. Live squawk: LiveSquawk plus our macro desk
2. Members' forum: talk the moves through as they happen
3. Voice & video calls: one-on-one or in a group
30 days free, no card: ggma-app.com/x
Grimm's Global Macro Aggregator (GGMA) retweeted
#FF
@C_Barraud
@LiveSquawk
@kevinmuir
@VMRConstancio
@AdamPosen
@MikaelSarwe
@dlacalle_IA
@Ksidiii
@DeItaOne
@dampedspring
@themarketear
@JackFarley96
@jeuasommenulle
@chigrl
@PiQSuite
@vtchakarova
@Alea_
@VPatelFX
@TheStalwart
@SpecialSitsNews
@BobEUnlimited
@RenMacLLC
@agnostoxxx
@passedpawn
@amital13
@Globalflows
@neilsethinew
@TheMichaelEvery
@sidprabhu
@jturek18
Grimm's Global Macro Aggregator (GGMA) retweeted
The US jobs report lands today at 14:30 CET, and markets react within seconds. GGMA Squawk & Chat calls out the market-moving headlines live, with LiveSquawk's audio, our macro desk and a members' chat, on desktop and on the iPhone.
30-second look: youtu.be/-rD2SN8f_UE
30 days free, no credit card details needed, and you can stay on our free plan afterwards: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: AI Rout Spreads to Asia as Hedge Funds Cut Risk
🌏 The AI-led stock selloff spread to Asia, and Japan's Nikkei had its biggest one-day loss since April 2025.
🇺🇸 Thursday's rout wiped a record amount off the Nasdaq 100 after voters backed limits on data centres.
💼 Hedge funds are unwinding crowded trades after a bruising October.
🇯🇵 Japanese wages rose at the fastest pace since 1997. In our view, that supports a BoJ rate rise in December.
🛢️ Oil extended its rebound as traders weighed the outlook for an end to the war in the Middle East.
Today's Macro Roadmap: New York Fed President John Williams and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speak at 10:30 CET, and euro-area retail sales are due at 11:00 CET. The US and Canadian jobs reports land at 14:30 CET, and the University of Michigan's sentiment index follows at 16:00 CET.
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
The US jobs report lands today at 14:30 CET, and markets react within seconds. GGMA Squawk & Chat calls out the market-moving headlines live, with LiveSquawk's audio, our macro desk and a members' chat, on desktop and on the iPhone.
30-second look: youtu.be/-rD2SN8f_UE
30 days free, no credit card details needed, and you can stay on our free plan afterwards: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: AI Rout Spreads to Asia as Hedge Funds Cut Risk
🌏 The AI-led stock selloff spread to Asia, and Japan's Nikkei had its biggest one-day loss since April 2025.
🇺🇸 Thursday's rout wiped a record amount off the Nasdaq 100 after voters backed limits on data centres.
💼 Hedge funds are unwinding crowded trades after a bruising October.
🇯🇵 Japanese wages rose at the fastest pace since 1997. In our view, that supports a BoJ rate rise in December.
🛢️ Oil extended its rebound as traders weighed the outlook for an end to the war in the Middle East.
Today's Macro Roadmap: New York Fed President John Williams and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speak at 10:30 CET, and euro-area retail sales are due at 11:00 CET. The US and Canadian jobs reports land at 14:30 CET, and the University of Michigan's sentiment index follows at 16:00 CET.
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
“I suspect the bigger risk is still ahead: As losses mount, risk managers may force funds to cut exposure, potentially triggering another wave of selling regardless of fundamentals.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Bye bye personal investment advisors ?
ANTHROPIC LAUNCHES PERSONAL FINANCE IN CLAUDE
Anthropic is introducing Personal Finance in Claude, with a US beta rollout beginning this week for Pro, Max and Ultra subscribers.
The feature provides read-only access to financial information and is not designed to offer investment advice.
Anthropic also confirms no ads or sponsored recommendations.
Grimm's Global Macro Aggregator (GGMA) retweeted
ANTHROPIC LAUNCHES PERSONAL FINANCE IN CLAUDE
Anthropic is introducing Personal Finance in Claude, with a US beta rollout beginning this week for Pro, Max and Ultra subscribers.
The feature provides read-only access to financial information and is not designed to offer investment advice.
Anthropic also confirms no ads or sponsored recommendations.
Grimm's Global Macro Aggregator (GGMA) retweeted
🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: US & Canada Jobs Reports and Fed Speakers
The US jobs report at 14:30 CET could decide whether money markets keep pricing in a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December.
Canada's report lands at the same minute and could tip the Bank of Canada's December decision, priced at 47% for a hike.
Fed officials react in real time, and their split could move Treasury yields.
Also on the calendar: German industrial production is due at 08:00 CET, and SNB foreign currency reserves are due at 09:00 CET. Euro-area retail sales follow at 11:00 CET, the Canadian Ivey PMI is due at 16:00 CET, and US consumer credit follows at 21:00 CET.
Try GGMA free for 30 days, no credit card needed: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: US & Canada Jobs Reports and Fed Speakers
The US jobs report at 14:30 CET could decide whether money markets keep pricing in a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December.
Canada's report lands at the same minute and could tip the Bank of Canada's December decision, priced at 47% for a hike.
Fed officials react in real time, and their split could move Treasury yields.
Also on the calendar: German industrial production is due at 08:00 CET, and SNB foreign currency reserves are due at 09:00 CET. Euro-area retail sales follow at 11:00 CET, the Canadian Ivey PMI is due at 16:00 CET, and US consumer credit follows at 21:00 CET.
Try GGMA free for 30 days, no credit card needed: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
Grimm's Global Macro Aggregator (GGMA) retweeted
US-Wirtschaft: Nach den Zwischenwahlen geht das Leben weiter. Die Demokraten haben die Mehrheit sowohl im Repräsentantenhaus als auch im Senat gewonnen. Der Sieg war deutlicher als erwartet. Was das nun heisst, steht teilweise noch in den Sternen. Klar ist: Zusätzliche Bundesstaaten sind sozusagen zu Swing States geworden, weil dort meist gemässigte Demokraten Sitze gewonnen haben, die man lange als sicher republikanisch bezeichnet hat. Politisch könnte es sein, dass nun gemässigtere Kandidatinnen und Kandidaten in beiden Parteien eher Aufwind bekommen (natürlich mit Ausnahmen). Allerdings konnte man am Anfang der Präsidentschaft von Joe Biden auch schon häufig Meinungsartikel lesen, die gemässigtere Zeiten ausgerufen haben. Das war ja dann nicht so wirklich der Fall.
Wirtschaftspolitisch sind wohl keine grossen Projekte zu erwarten. Die Demokraten können Trump blockieren und umgekehrt. Bei einigen Dingen ist möglicherweise eine Zusammenarbeit vorstellbar, etwa bei den Anhebungen der Schuldenobergrenze. An Shutdowns dürfte wohl keine Partei ein Interesse haben. Trump hat sich nach den Wahlen bislang eher moderat geäussert, was sich aber bekannterweise schnell ändern kann.
Von Bedeutung wird nun auch sein, wie es aussenpolitisch im Iran und der Ukraine weitergeht. Eine allfällige grosse Militäraktion gegen Iran hat rein wirtschaftlich betrachtet natürlich das Potenzial für weiter steigenden Erdölpreise mit den Konsequenzen für die Haushalte, die Inflation und die Geldpolitik.
Der US-Wirtschaft scheint es momentan den Umständen entsprechend gut zu gehen. Aktuell meldet das private ADP Research Institut einen robusten Stellenzuwachs von 86'000 im Oktober. Bald werden wir auch die amtlichen Zahlen zum Arbeitsmarkt im Oktober erhalten. Momentan würde ich im Dezember eher mit einer Zinserhöhung der Notenbank rechnen. Wirtschaftlich scheint es alles in allem recht gut zu laufen, auch wenn sich die realen Einkommen wegen der hohen Inflation schwach entwickelt haben. Somit dürfte die nach wie vor hohe Inflation im Fokus stehen.
adpresearch.com/
Grimm's Global Macro Aggregator (GGMA) retweeted
🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: BoE & Norges Bank Decisions and ECB Speakers
I will be travelling tomorrow, so there won't be a Morning Brief.
The Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4.00% at 13:00 CET, its first hike in over three years, and the vote split could move gilts.
Central bankers speak 13 times, and the afternoon in Zurich could move rate expectations.
Norges Bank is expected to hold at 4.50%, and Swedish CPIF inflation is seen easing to 1.4% y/y from 1.5%, a day after the Riksbank's hike.
Also on the calendar: German factory orders are due at 08:00 CET, the UK construction PMI follows at 10:30 CET, and euro-area producer prices are due at 11:00 CET. Canada presents its federal budget, and Airbnb and Atlassian report after the US close.
Try GGMA free for 30 days, no credit card needed: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: BoE & Norges Bank Decisions and ECB Speakers
I will be travelling tomorrow, so there won't be a Morning Brief.
The Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4.00% at 13:00 CET, its first hike in over three years, and the vote split could move gilts.
Central bankers speak 13 times, and the afternoon in Zurich could move rate expectations.
Norges Bank is expected to hold at 4.50%, and Swedish CPIF inflation is seen easing to 1.4% y/y from 1.5%, a day after the Riksbank's hike.
Also on the calendar: German factory orders are due at 08:00 CET, the UK construction PMI follows at 10:30 CET, and euro-area producer prices are due at 11:00 CET. Canada presents its federal budget, and Airbnb and Atlassian report after the US close.
Try GGMA free for 30 days, no credit card needed: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
#ECB sees wage growth cooling down going forward.
ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/…
🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Stocks and Dollar Slip as Democrats Sweep Congress
🇺🇸 Democrats won both chambers of Congress, sending US stock futures and the dollar lower and Treasuries higher.
💻 Technology led the losses after Texas's governor-elect called for a moratorium on new data centres.
🇳🇿 New Zealand's jobless rate rose more than expected. In our view, that eases the pressure on the RBNZ to hike.
🛢️ Oil edged higher as Iran and the US reviewed fresh mediator proposals after limited US strikes.
🥇 Gold rallied as the dollar and Treasury yields fell.
Today's Macro Roadmap: Sweden's Riksbank decides at 09:30 CET, and euro-area flash inflation is due at 11:00 CET. In the US, ADP payrolls follow at 14:15 CET, the Treasury's refunding statement is due at 14:30 CET, and the ISM services index is due at 16:00 CET.
Try GGMA free for 30 days, no credit card needed: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
Grimm's Global Macro Aggregator (GGMA) retweeted
🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: Riksbank, Euro-Area Inflation, ISM and ADP
Economists expect Sweden's Riksbank to lift its policy rate to 2.00% at 09:30 CET, its first hike since 2023, and its guidance for December could move the krona.
Annual euro-area inflation is expected to rise to 4.0% from 3.8% at 11:00 CET, above the ECB's projected peak of 3.6%, with money markets pricing in an 87% chance of a December hike.
In the US, ADP payrolls at 14:15 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET test the 77% chance of a Fed hike in December.
Also on the calendar: The final services PMIs are out from 09:55 CET, the US trade balance and the Treasury's refunding plans follow at 14:30 CET, and Brazil's central bank decides at 22:30 CET. Uber and McDonald's report before the US open, Qualcomm and Arm after the close.
Try GGMA free for 30 days, no credit card needed: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: Riksbank, Euro-Area Inflation, ISM and ADP
Economists expect Sweden's Riksbank to lift its policy rate to 2.00% at 09:30 CET, its first hike since 2023, and its guidance for December could move the krona.
Annual euro-area inflation is expected to rise to 4.0% from 3.8% at 11:00 CET, above the ECB's projected peak of 3.6%, with money markets pricing in an 87% chance of a December hike.
In the US, ADP payrolls at 14:15 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET test the 77% chance of a Fed hike in December.
Also on the calendar: The final services PMIs are out from 09:55 CET, the US trade balance and the Treasury's refunding plans follow at 14:30 CET, and Brazil's central bank decides at 22:30 CET. Uber and McDonald's report before the US open, Qualcomm and Arm after the close.
Try GGMA free for 30 days, no credit card needed: ggma-app.com/sign-up?utm_sou…
Read the full article on our website for free: ggma-app.com/public-article/…
Grimm's Global Macro Aggregator (GGMA) retweeted
The first US midterm returns land from midnight CET, and markets will react before Europe wakes up. I've built GGMA Squawk & Chat for nights like this: LiveSquawk audio, our macro desk and a members' chat. 30 days free, no credit card details needed: ggma-app.com/x
The first US midterm returns land from midnight CET, and markets will react before Europe wakes up. I've built GGMA Squawk & Chat for nights like this: LiveSquawk audio, our macro desk and a members' chat. 30 days free, no credit card details needed: ggma-app.com/x