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GS raise global servers TAM by 31% / 45% in 2027 / 28E across general servers and AI servers to reflect the ongoing generative AI infrastructure investments and specification upgrades: (1) General servers: raised value by 17% / 11% in 2027 / 28E with both shipment and ASP raised. GS expect general servers shipment to grow at 20% / 12% / 8% YoY in 2026-28E. (2) AI servers (NVL72, powered by NV & AMD): shipment raised by 5% / 1% to 110k / 164k racks in 2027 / 28E. (3) AI servers (8-GPU, powered by GPU & ASIC): shipment raised by 10% / 29% to 2.7m / 3.3m servers in 2027 / 28E. GS new AI servers shipment forecasts imply AI chip demand of 18m / 29m / 38m in 2026-28E, or a ~60% / ~50% ASIC penetration rate globally / global-tier in 2028E. GS continue to see a rise across CSP capex, fabless shipment, and foundry capacity, driving an AI infrastructure upcycle.

(Repost) You can clearly sense that DS is changing—from what used to feel like a lab-style organization into a more commercially driven company. 1/ This is probably the first time it has officially used this kind of “kill line” narrative in its marketing. 2/ DS, which previously placed little emphasis on front-end experience or visual modeling capabilities, has followed the community’s preferences this time—making it more likely to go viral—and strengthened these areas in the latest iteration.

For CXMT, Morgan Stanley was significantly more bullish than Goldman Sachs, with the company’s actual results landing somewhere in between. Revenue and net profit both beat Goldman’s estimates, but clearly missed Morgan Stanley’s forecasts. More notably, the net margin fell short of even Goldman’s relatively conservative estimate, suggesting that while revenue delivery was solid, earnings conversion was weaker than expected—potentially due to costs or minority interests.

This is consistent with the data we obtained.

AMD will raise prices on various adaptive embedded computing products for orders and shipments from December 27, 2026, citing rising semiconductor supply-chain costs.

Nomura--Wire & cable Optical devices 1/6 The AI optical component cycle may be stronger—and last longer—than the market expects. Lumentum’s CEO says active optical products are fully sold out through early 2029, while some customers have already started locking in orders for 2030. $LITE 2/6 The supply gap is significant: • For some products, Lumentum may be unable to meet 70% of demand through end-2027 • For others, around 30% of demand may remain unmet through end-2028 • Capacity is expanding rapidly, but remains well below customer requirements 3/6 The next wave may be even bigger. Lumentum expects demand for lasers used in next-generation AI systems to accelerate around 2029, creating a market potentially “another order of magnitude” larger than today. Nomura believes ultra-high-power lasers for scale-up CPO will be a key growth driver. 4/6 Nomura highlights Sumitomo Electric $5802 as a potential beneficiary: • Progress on NVIDIA qualification for CPO lasers expected in FY3/27 • Meaningful CPO laser sales could begin in 2H FY3/28 • Resolving current production issues could unlock further earnings upside • Potential indirect exposure through InP substrates and other supply-chain links Some of these supplier relationships are Nomura’s estimates rather than officially confirmed arrangements. 5/6 Furukawa Electric $5801 could also benefit: • Optical-device yields are stabilizing • Its FITEL products business has turned profitable • DFB laser sales are expected to increase • Lumentum expects pump-laser volumes to quadruple over the next five quarters Furukawa is a major pump-laser supplier alongside Lumentum. 6/6 Fujikura $5803 does not manufacture the relevant laser components, making it a less direct beneficiary of this specific trend.

GS--HBF: Cracking the AI Memory Wall GS sees high-performance NAND (esp. High-Bandwidth Flash) as a real fix for the AI inference memory wall—and a CapEx saver. TAM ~$40–150bn by 2030 at 15–50% GPU adoption ~30% lower cost of inference throughput → potentially hundreds of bn in hyperscaler CapEx savings Bull case: HBF on 50% of XPUs by late 2028 → ~4% of NAND bits but ~9% of wafer capacity (HBM-like die penalty) Near term: tight NAND stays tight; HBF could extend the cycle Risks: latency, endurance, thermal, manufacturing intensity Favor SNDK & SK Hynix on HBF tech lead; Samsung well placed; Micron less of a NAND beneficiary HBF is early at system level—but the economics look attractive even at a big premium to commodity NAND.

According to TMT Breakout, Anthropic’s ARR was around $7.8–8.0 billion at the end of September. However, our industry checks suggest it had not yet reached $7.8 billion, though the gap was relatively small. We’ll soon release data models covering OpenAI, Anthropic, Zhipu AI, Kimi, and DeepSeek. Stay tuned.

UBS--PCB / CCL / PTFE The traditional CCL upcycle may run through 1H27; the market underestimates how long it lasts. Kingboard hiked FR4 another 10% and thin-cloth prepreg 20% end-Aug; Sep FR4 pre-tax ASP is expected above Rmb340/sheet. UBS raises FR4 price forecasts to Rmb383/sheet by Dec-26 and Rmb443/sheet by Jun-27. CCL ASPs are expected to keep rising at DD% QoQ in 3Q/4Q26; ~every 10% ASP hike lifts GPM by ~2ppt. The driver is supply constraint, not a broad demand rebound. E-glass fabric inventory is near zero; UBS sees the industry still >10% short in 2027. 7628 fabric may exceed Rmb15/m by YE26; 1080 thin fabric may reach Rmb23/m. New traditional FR4 capacity in 2027 is limited—most new tools go to M6+ AI CCL. PTFE timing is pulled forward from 2029E to 2H27–28E, first on Rubin Ultra VR300 NVL576 switch boards. Likely a 32L hybrid: 8–12 PTFE signal layers, with M8/M9 on the core layers. Shengyi (SYT) is already qualified on both M9 and PTFE, with PTFE dedicated capacity >200k sheets/month, and is positioned to be Nvidia’s largest CCL supplier in the VR300 phase. UBS estimates PTFE plus related M8/M9 could add Rmb137mn / Rmb2,635mn to SYT NP in 2027/28E—about 1.1% / 15.8% upside vs base. UBS sees CPO/NPO not meaningfully cutting CCL content value. Under NVL576, switch trays per NVL72 rack rise from 9x to 18x, with larger PCB area, more layers, and higher material specs. Shengyi Tech: Buy maintained; PT raised Rmb192 → Rmb209; 2027E earnings +9%; ~23.7x 2027E P/E. Kingboard Laminates: Buy maintained; PT raised HK$66 → HK$75; 2027E earnings +31%; ~8.4x 2027E P/E.