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$TSLA China 🇨🇳 Q2 2024 sales are trending down ~11,000 (-8.7%) vs the same time last year, despite:
1) $2,000 price cuts in Q2 (on top of Q1 price cuts).
2) 0% financing
3) 0 down.
4) $3,600 Inventory discounts + Readily available inventory.
5) NEV purchase subsidy.
6) New Highland model.
Last year, they actually raised prices in Q2.
I expect Q2 to end up over 20,000 cars behind last year, as final weeks sales continue to disappoint.
$TSLA 11,700.
2nd week of declining sales is a disaster, as expectation for sales to ramp up in final weeks to get 0% financing has not played out.
RIP foundation series. 🚨
BREAKING: Tesla has officially begun inviting people to order the less expensive non-Foundation Series Cybertrucks!
It starts at $79,990, which means it officially qualifies for the $7,500 Fed EV credit, bringing the price down to $72,500. It gets 325 miles of range. The $99,990 ti-motor Cyberbeast is also now available to order.
Production of cheaper Cybertrucks is finally about to start!
There's a new version of this post
Bad Q3 sales incoming? 🚨
$TSLA
$TSLA “Robotaxi” testing with steering wheels? 🤔
Is this a prank?
Can’t wait for 10/10.
While Bulls tout “record” August sales, Tesla August sales actually DECLINED 1.9% while the competition’s BEV sales are UP 18.4%.
Despite “record” 2nd month 2024 sales, Tesla China 🇨🇳 August sales were down 1.9% YoY (vs BEV + 18.7% YoY) despite:
1) 0 down.
2) 0% financing.
3) NEV subsidy introduction (which was recently doubled).
4) Model 3 Highland refresh.
5) Multiple price cuts.
6) More selling days in August 2024 vs 2023.
In Aug , the domestic sales volume of the PV market in China🇨🇳 reached 1.91M units, -0.8% YoY, +10.9% YoY.
🔹 Among the top 20 brands, #BYD took the top spot with domestic sales of 364.4k units, +58.4% YoY.
🔹VW , Toyota, and Changan ranked 2nd to 4th, with domestic sales in Aug of 170.7k, 135k, and 71.2k units, respectively, representing YoY declines of 12.7%, 13.2%, and 31.6%. Geely also saw a YoY decline of 13%, with domestic sales of 67.7k units in Aug.
🔹 Honda and Nissan reported YoY declines of 44.2% and 24.1%, respectively, with sales of 56.9k and 42.5k units.
🔹 For German luxury brands, Mercedes, BMW, and Audi saw YoY declines of 14.9%, 42%, and 16%, respectively.
🔹 #Tesla 's domestic sales this month reached 63.5k units, -1.9% YoY.
“EV leader” Tesla is rapidly losing market share in China 🇨🇳, with BYD outselling Tesla 6 to 1 in August.
Tesla NEV share is declining despite 0% financing and 0 down. 👇
2023: 7.8%.
2024: 6.5%.
August: 6.2%.
We could see market share below 5% very soon.
Automakers' share of China NEV market in Aug: BYD tops with 37.0%, Tesla 3rd with 6.2%
In the January-August period, BYD was No. 1 in the NEV market with a 34.6 percent share, while Tesla was No. 3 with 6.5 percent.
$BYDDY $BYDDF $TSLA
cnevpost.com/2024/09/11/auto…
As long as Tesla depreciation is still 50%, most Uber drivers (and fleets) will stick to hybrids (even more so as gas prices have reached 3 year lows) or used EVs (with $4,000 used EV tax credit).
$TSLA weekly registrations: 16,200 for week 10.
Tesla China 🇨🇳 sales in Q3 are losing momentum (from up 550% to now only up by 7%) but still remain 9,100 units ahead of record in Q4 2023.
0% financing/0 down is working along with relaxation of government quotas but is largely irrelevant at near zero margins.
Tesla China 🇨🇳 weekly sales should be out shortly.
Last 3 weeks have been flat at ~14,300.
Anything under 15,000 would be bad given Shanghai production is running at full capacity + generous 0% financing/ 0 down.
$TSLA 🇨🇳
Tesla's Model 3 is in increasing demand in China.
Currently, the estimated delivery date for the Model 3 is increasing, representing 4w to 6w!
(from: 3w to 5w)
Why is legacy auto pivoting towards hybrids?
Hybrids haven’t gotten more popular, instead plug in EVs (BEV+PHEVs) have fallen out of favor due to lower gas prices + higher interest rates at a time where consumer are feeling the pinch.
Hence automakers are slashing their BEV targets in line with the decline in interest from consumers by adjusting their previous optimistic forecasts due to the uncertainty.
In its latest Mobility Consumer Index (MCI), consulting firm EY found that only 34% of US consumers plan to purchase an electrified vehicle (meaning fully electric, plug-in hybrid, or hybrid) as their next car. That's down from 48% in EY’s 2023 survey.
$tsla
Chinese competitors are gobbling up market share from Tesla.
Price cuts and 0% financing is not a sustainable long term strategy in the most competitive EV market, where competitors are launching new models at a rapid pace.
Tesla share of the China NEV market has dropped some 30a+% YoY from 9.04% last July to 6.18% this July. At this rate, it could easily be just 4% by EoY.
$TSLA
Despite record retail China sales for the year, wholesale (retail+exports, left) have been flat for 2 years due to declining Shanghai exports (right).
Notably, Model 3 sales have been flat even after Highland refresh + 0% financing + 0 down + new performance trim
Until a new model is introduced early next year (like the Y in 2022), sales will continue to stagnate even with hefty price cuts/incentives.
Gas prices hitting 3 year lows is bad news for Tesla and EVs, which previously benefited from higher gas prices steering consumers away from ICE.
Lower gas prices offset the benefits of rate cuts which accrue more favorably towards higher priced vehicles (which EVs typically are).
More price cuts/incentives will be needed as EV demand continues to slow down.
Record $TSLA domestic sales in China 🇨🇳 doesn’t matter when margins are near 0 with 0% financing.
Meanwhile, profitable European/ROW exports sales are declining.
EU 🇪🇺,Turkey 🇹🇷, and soon Canada 🇨🇦 tariffs will cause further declines in both volumes and margins.
Q3 EPS may not materially improve due to a worsening sales mix (-Europe (Most profitable market) , + China 🇨🇳(Least profitable) even if Q3 deliveries are much higher vs Q2.
Is Tesla Shanghai reducing Model 3 production or is demand increasing?
Tesla China Model 3 delivery times increased to 4-6 weeks (From 3-5).
Meanwhile 3 August wholesale is down 7.1% MoM.
China numbers today should be interesting. 🍿
#Tesla China wholesale volume in Aug was 86,697 units, +3% YoY ,+17% MoM.
Model 3 : 30,388 units, +61.3% YoY, -7.1% MoM.
Model Y: 56,309 units, -13.8% YoY, +36% MoM.
