𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 — 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 ($LBTYA) Liberty Global closed Friday at **$𝟕.𝟖𝟎**. Its last reported book value was **$𝟐𝟕.𝟎𝟒 per share**. Investors can now buy the stock for roughly **𝟐𝟗 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞**. Something interesting happened this week. European regulators cleared the **€𝟔𝟔𝟗 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 sale** of VodafoneZiggo's Dutch towers. The proceeds are intended to reduce debt at VodafoneZiggo, rather than go directly into Liberty's corporate cash. And this is where the valuation gets interesting. Liberty owns several businesses worth billions, but the money from selling an asset does not necessarily end up at the parent company. There are lenders, refinancing requirements, other shareholders and Corporate costs to account for. Wyre is another important piece. Liberty owns interests in the network through two different structures, and a potential sale could help establish what those interests are actually worth. In our Deep Value Report, we valued the businesses separately, worked through the obligations ahead of shareholders and **𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞** to understand what the market had already assigned to Wyre. The stock has fallen further since we completed that valuation. Whether this creates a sufficient margin of safety depends on what the remaining assets can actually deliver. **𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭**, including our Bear, Base and Bull valuations, the assumptions behind them and what the share price already reflects, is available on FRAGMENTS. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝐂𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐎𝐧𝐞 $CABO — 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟎 Donald Graham has continued selling Cable One. Yesterday’s filing puts his reported beneficial ownership, including trust holdings, at 𝟒.𝟗𝟗%, down from 6.88% on October 14. He still reports 282,882 shares, so describing this as a complete exit would be wrong. Cable One’s operating cash flow left roughly $𝟗𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 after cash capital spending in the first half. Interest and cash taxes were already paid through that operating cash flow. Principal repayments still had to be funded, and refinancing at higher rates would reduce what remains even if the business stopped declining. The 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟐 hearing concerns the court order blocking the MBI acquisition. Cable One’s last estimate was roughly $480 million to purchase the remaining 55%, with MBI bringing approximately $920 million of net debt. Permission to close would remove a legal obstacle, but shareholders would still need to examine the purchase payment, replacement borrowing and interest bill together. A settlement without completing the acquisition could produce a very different result. Cable One might pay to resolve the contract while avoiding full ownership of MBI and its debt. But the settlement would need to release Cable One from the purchase obligation, and the company would still have to refinance its own borrowings. The current court order does not give shareholders that outcome. We have rebuilt the analysis around those differences. Buying MBI at the contractual price, negotiating a lower purchase payment and settling without taking full ownership each leave a different amount of debt to support. A cheaper purchase also helps much less if the savings are absorbed by financing costs or securities issued to the new lenders. Our revised report calculates what remains for today’s shares under those outcomes, using cash after capital spending and operating taxes. The stronger valuations require an improvement in the business or a meaningful reduction in the obligations Cable One must satisfy. The company’s ability to keep operating, by itself, does not establish that the shares are cheap. 𝐂𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐎𝐧𝐞: $𝟏𝟕 𝐚 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 $𝟒.𝟑 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐆𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝐀𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐨𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐝. During the first half of 2026, Arbor Realty Trust $ABR sold $112.8 million of foreclosed real estate. It provided $107.8 million of financing to the buyers. 𝐍𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝟗𝟔% 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐀𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐭𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟. Seller financing may ultimately produce a better recovery than forcing properties onto a weak market. But those sales tell us relatively little about how much outside cash has been collected. The distinction becomes particularly important when billions of dollars in loans are being modified, extended or refinanced. Today's FRAGMENTS Deep Value Report follows those assets through the balance sheet and estimates what Arbor could eventually recover. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 — 𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗘𝗘𝗣𝗢’𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 STARTEEPO wrote to Xerox again this morning. It wants clearer financial reporting for Xerox Financial Services and a formal review of its options, with answers at the October 29 earnings call. The fund still values XFS at $𝟳.𝟲𝟵 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. The business finances customer equipment, and the loans it holds have borrowing behind them. A sale has to account for that debt, transaction costs and taxes. Any cash left would still have to help Xerox meet its other debt and retirement payments. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. It deducts debt, retirement funding and preferred shares, counts the new shares from warrants, and tests how much value buying back discounted bonds could add. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀 ($STLA) Stellantis trades around $𝟰.𝟯𝟳 per share. Its last reported book value works out to roughly $𝟮𝟰.𝟳𝟬 per share, using the exchange rate in my report. I understand why value investors are looking at this company. But I wouldn't buy an automaker simply because the shares trade so far below book value. Stellantis released its estimated Q3 shipments this week. Worldwide deliveries declined just 1%, but 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝟭𝟮%, 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝘂𝗽 𝟭𝟬%, and South America was practically flat. Ram improved in North America while Jeep shipments declined. Europe benefited from newer models and a substantial increase in Leapmotor deliveries. In South America, stronger shipments in Brazil were offset by weakness in Argentina. I pay attention to those differences because 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻'𝘁 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁𝘀. The vehicles still have to sell, preferably without excessive incentives, and the cash has to come back into the business. Q2 produced €𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 of positive Industrial free cash flow, although the first half was still negative. Meanwhile, the Industrial financial position has changed considerably from the €𝟮𝟵.𝟱 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Stellantis held at the end of 2023. At these prices, I am interested in what the business can earn once North America and Europe stabilize, how much cash the remaining restructuring will consume, and what portion of the reported assets ultimately belongs to ordinary shareholders after the other financial obligations are considered. I worked through those questions in the Stellantis Deep Value Report, including Financial Services, the hybrids, warranty, debt and several different recovery scenarios. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀. The next financial update comes on October 28. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 $MERC — 𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗢𝘄𝗻𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗜𝘀 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿? Mercer closed Friday around $0.19, putting the stock-market value of all its shares at roughly $13 million. Here's something worth thinking about. Mercer's October 1 interest payment alone was $25.75 million. The company did not make that payment and is now using the 30-day grace period to negotiate with its bondholders. Meanwhile, Peter Kellogg's reporting group owns roughly 40% of Mercer. His latest disclosed purchase was another 419,743 shares at around $0.90 in June, when the company's financial problems were already well known. I find his position interesting, especially considering how much the shares have fallen since then. But I would be careful about interpreting those purchases without understanding what the creditors might eventually demand. I spent weeks going through Mercer's mills, putting values on the assets, studying the German and Canadian bank facilities and calculating what could actually be left for shareholders after the financial obligations are dealt with. Under my assumptions, Mercer needs roughly $1.75 billion of asset value before meaningful value begins reaching today's shareholders. And that calculation comes before whatever dilution might be required in a restructuring. With negotiations already underway, I'm particularly interested in how the creditors intend to deal with the existing shareholders, including Kellogg. The full 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿 goes through the asset valuations, debt structure and different outcomes in detail. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

$WFC $MERC $CLW $HD

𝗦𝗜𝗧𝗘 𝗖𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 $SITC : 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 $𝟯.𝟬𝟬 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻? SITE Centers is trading around $3.56 and has just announced a 𝗦𝟯.𝟬𝟬 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. I've been reading some of the discussion around the announcement, and a lot of the attention seems to be on collecting that $3.00 payment. But shareholders will still own their SITC shares after the distribution. There is a remaining company to value. SITE has now sold its 𝟮𝟬% 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗗𝗧𝗣 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘅𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 $𝟯𝟮.𝟰𝗠, resolving the buy-sell decision I spent so much time analyzing in September's Deep Value Report. I had modeled both possible outcomes before the partner's decision became public. The remaining liquidation includes Portland, Beachwood, cash from completed property sales, other assets and the corporate expenses that will continue until the company is wound down. In the report, I valued those assets individually, reconstructed the remaining obligations and calculated 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 under different assumptions. With DTP now resolved, we can compare those calculations with what investors are paying for SITC today, including what remains after the announced distribution. The full 𝗦𝗜𝗧𝗘 𝗖𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 is on 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦, with the asset-by-asset valuation and the different recoveries per share. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

$RWT $WELL $NLY $RITM $BAC

𝗦𝗣𝗘𝗖𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗦𝗜𝗧𝗨𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗗𝗢𝗦𝗦𝗜𝗘𝗥 — Redwood Trust $RWT Redwood Trust closed Friday at $3.04. Its last reported book value was $6.90 a share at June 30. On October 13, management announced that Redwood had distributed more than $8 billion of mortgage loans through securitizations and whole-loan sales during the third quarter. The company also ended September with approximately $190 million in cash and intends to continue buying back debt when opportunities arise. Meanwhile, activist investor Bradley Radoff wants Redwood sold. Wellington's latest filing shows 17% ownership. Howard Amster owns about 9%, and six insiders bought shares after Radoff's letter. Redwood owns three mortgage businesses, Sequoia, Aspire and CoreVest, along with substantial investment portfolios. At around $3 a share, there is quite a bit to figure out. How much could those businesses sell for? How much of the reported book value could be recovered? And after paying the debt, preferred shareholders, convertible holders and other claims, how much would actually reach the common shareholder? We went through those calculations in our 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿, including what happens if nobody buys the company. The shares have fallen since we published the report. The next financial results arrive November 3. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗱𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗻’𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗲 $SPWH — 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝘁 $𝟭.𝟬𝟱 Sportsman’s Warehouse closed Friday at $1.05, putting the entire equity value at roughly $41 million. This is a retailer generating more than $1.2 billion in annual sales, so the margin calculations are worth spending some time on. A single percentage point of gross margin on that revenue would represent approximately $12 million in additional annual gross profit. Compare that with the value of the entire company’s shares today. The latest quarter showed a 50-basis-point improvement in gross margin, from 32.0% to 32.5%. Encouraging, although management also reported a one-time tariff benefit. Looking at the first six months instead, gross margin actually declined slightly, from 31.2% to 31.1%. There is a considerable difference between improving margins for one quarter and earning those margins consistently across 147 stores. Sportsman’s also has seasonal borrowing requirements, lease commitments and underperforming locations that still need attention. Additional gross profit only becomes valuable to shareholders when enough of it remains after the business pays its bills and maintains its stores. At $1.05, even a modest, sustainable recovery could change the valuation considerably. But the amount of debt and the cash that actually reaches shareholders deserve just as much attention as the sales figures. Our Sportsman’s Warehouse Deep Value Report examines the store economics, the balance sheet and the recovery values under Bear, Base and Bull scenarios. The reported book value tells only part of the story. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

Cable One $CABO — October 17 CABO closed Friday at $𝟕.𝟐𝟑. The entire common equity is now worth roughly $𝟒𝟏 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧. MBI still hasn’t closed. The judge has now scheduled a hearing for 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟐 𝐚𝐭 𝟐:𝟎𝟎 𝐩.𝐦. 𝐄𝐓 on CoBank’s case and Cable One’s request to remove the temporary restraining order. The two sides were unable to agree on a timetable themselves. At the same time, Cable One says the delay is putting the proposed $𝟏.𝟑 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 financing at risk. This is the financing involving GTCR, existing lenders and private lenders that Cable One was trying to put in place around the MBI transaction and its balance sheet. Put those numbers beside each other. On $1.3 billion, every 1 percentage point of interest represents $𝟏𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 a year. Cable One’s entire market cap is about $41 million. I’m not saying the new loan will be expensive, and we still don’t have the terms. But it shows how small the common equity has become compared with the financing decisions being made above it. A change of 100 basis points on one loan can represent roughly one-third of today’s entire equity value in annual cash interest. So at $7.23, I’m not more comfortable simply because the stock is cheaper. I still want the interest rate, maturity, collateral, covenants, where the new money ranks, what GTCR is putting in, what happens to the MBI term loans and how much debt is left ahead of the common shareholders when all of this is finished. The hearing is Thursday. Then we should know a little more. 𝐒𝟏𝟕 𝐚 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 $𝟒.𝟑 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐆𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗗𝗘𝗘𝗣 𝗩𝗔𝗟𝗨𝗘 𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧 — 𝗨𝗦𝗔𝗡𝗔 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 ($USNA) USANA closed Friday at $15.54 a share. Its reported book value is approximately $28.50 per share. The stock trades at just 55% of reported book value. At Q2, the company had $168.6M in cash, against a current market value of roughly $287M. Founder Dr. Myron Wentz still owns about 40% of USANA. There is a reason for the discount. The original nutrition business has been losing customers, and USANA's $206M acquisition of Hiya has already disappointed. Some of that reported book value may never be recovered. That's why we went back through the assets, acquisitions, earning power, cash, ownership and capital allocation, and calculated what we believe the different businesses are worth today. Since publication, USANA has also amended the bank covenant we highlighted. Q3 results arrive November 3, giving investors another opportunity to assess how the business is holding up. At $15.54, how much are shareholders actually getting for their money? Our full valuation, including the Bear, Base and Bull cases, is available in the USANA Deep Value Report on FRAGMENTS for paid subscribers. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗔𝗠𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗔’𝗦 𝗖𝗔𝗥-𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗧 ($CRMT ) Car-Mart received another week from its lenders. On Friday, the stock fell nearly 23% and is now trading around $1, putting the entire equity at less than 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗼𝗳 $𝟵 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. The waiver now runs through 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟮, including temporary relief from minimum liquidity and collateral coverage requirements. Management continues to report significant progress toward a transaction. We still have no terms, no announced buyer and no indication of how much ownership today's shareholders might retain. I went back to something in the last quarterly report. Car-Mart collected 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 $𝟭𝟬𝟴 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in loan principal while originating only $41 million in new loans. The company is collecting the business it built in previous years much faster than it is replacing it. A significant portion of those collections goes toward repaying securitization debt. Meanwhile, Car-Mart still needs financing to purchase cars and rebuild its lending business. Its last reported book value was $45.20 per share. At a stock price around $1, the discount looks enormous. But those receivables are not cash available to shareholders. There are lenders, securitization trusts and potentially new investors who have claims or may receive ownership before the current shareholders see anything. For our FRAGMENTS report, I examined the loan portfolio, the third-party appraisal, comparable subprime auto portfolios, the ABS financing and Silver Point's credit agreement. I also studied previous Silver Point transactions and built 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿, 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 for the shares under different financing and ownership outcomes. With the entire equity valued at less than $9 million, it wouldn't take a large recovery for shareholders to see a substantial return. But the amount that eventually reaches them could also be close to zero. Another extension keeps the negotiations going. We still need to see what the lenders are willing to accept and how much of the company will be left for its current shareholders. 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗿-𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁: 𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗢𝘄𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆? Our full analysis is available on FRAGMENTS. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗘𝗘𝗣𝗢 𝗽𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗮 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗼𝗳 $𝟳.𝟲𝟵 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅’𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀. $XRX The business finances customer purchases with borrowed money. Selling it means accounting for that borrowing, along with fees, separation costs and taxes. Today’s report works through what Xerox could retain and how that compares with the activist’s valuation. It also values the other operating businesses and examines the obligations ahead of shareholders. 𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗰𝗮𝗵𝗻. Now on 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗙𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 ($FPH) trades around 𝗨𝗦$𝟰.𝟰𝟬, against roughly 𝗨𝗦$𝟭𝟱.𝟳𝟵 of reported capital per fully exchanged share at June 30. During Q2, its Great Park joint venture sold just 17.7 acres for $159.3 million. Five Point received cash distributions and incentive payments from the venture, and its development management agreement was extended through 2028 in September. An actual land transaction gives us something to work with. But the $159.3 million belongs to the venture, and Five Point only receives what its ownership and contractual arrangements allow. San Francisco is another story. Billions in projected development activity, infrastructure obligations and reimbursements that may take years to arrive. Some of that capital could remain tied up well into the 2040s. In our Deep Value Report, we removed San Francisco entirely and examined the remaining assets separately. We then went through the San Francisco financing agreements to understand how much capital might be required and what could eventually reach shareholders. At 𝗨𝗦$𝟰.𝟰𝟬, FPH trades at less than 30% of its reported economic capital. But how much of that capital can actually be converted into cash for shareholders, and how much additional money will be required along the way? The difference could be substantial. 𝗙𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 — 𝗧𝗵𝗲 $𝟭.𝟰𝟱 𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗤𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻? Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 — 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐭𝐨 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 ($CATO ) Cato trades around $𝟐.𝟑𝟓 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞, against approximately $𝟖.𝟒𝟑 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 at August 1. In September, management increased planned closures to roughly 𝟏𝟐𝟎 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔. The 70 additional locations are reaching the end of their leases, and Cato says it will not owe rent on them beyond 2026. Management had previously renewed marginal stores to give them another year to improve. Letting those leases expire makes more sense to me than continuing to fund locations management no longer expects to recover. But the remaining stores still have to cover the distribution centre and head-office costs. I want to see how much spending actually disappears with the closures before assuming a smaller Cato will be more profitable. At this price, even a modest reduction in operating losses could help preserve more of the value behind each share. The report compares the real estate with its accounting value and works through what could remain for shareholders after further losses, leases and dilution. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐀𝐓𝐎 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭, 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫, 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, 𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 — 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 ($LBTYA) Liberty Global trades around $𝟖.𝟓𝟎. Reported book value at June 30 was $𝟐𝟕.𝟎𝟒 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞. The stock trades at roughly 𝟑𝟏 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲. Liberty owns 90% of Ziggo Group, half of Virgin Media O2, two interests in Wyre, Virgin Media Ireland and a private investment portfolio. Wyre is being prepared for a potential sale, and Ziggo Group is expected to list in Amsterdam in 2027. There is substantial value in those businesses. The difficult part is determining how much belongs to the shareholder after the lenders, leases, supplier financing, capital spending, Corporate costs and dilution. Liberty also paid €1 billion to Vodafone in July, which changes the corporate cash picture considerably. For our latest report, we valued the businesses separately, including Liberty's two interests in Wyre, without counting the same assets twice. We also 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 to calculate how much the market is already assigning to Wyre before a sale has even been signed. The report includes our valuation ranges, refinancing and currency sensitivities, the assumptions behind the asset values, and the price where we would require a greater margin of safety. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 $𝟖.𝟓𝟎 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 $𝟐𝟕.𝟎𝟒 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠. Whether the discount is sufficient depends on what remains for shareholders after all the other claims. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 — 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 ($OSG) 𝐎𝐒𝐆 𝐢𝐬 𝐮𝐩 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝟏𝟐% since we published our Deep Value Report on September 29. At Thursday's close, the entire company was valued at roughly $207 million. In our Base valuation, OSG's roughly 70% interest in Beat is worth approximately $250 million. One business alone exceeds the market value of the entire company. But there is another number worth understanding. Our estimate of the present value of future Corporate costs is also approximately $248 million. Then there is bank debt, minority interests, puts, a warrant and Everspan's insurance reserves to consider. OSG owns several valuable businesses, but the costs of maintaining the structure can consume a substantial part of what those businesses are worth. I went through the individual assets, the claims against them and the cash that can ultimately reach shareholders. The difference between the value of the businesses and the value of one OSG share is considerable. 𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 reconstructs OSG from the operating businesses up to the shareholder, with Bear, Base and Bull valuations and the assumptions behind each. The reported book value is above $15 per share. The economic value requires considerably more work. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗔𝗠𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗔’𝗦 𝗖𝗔𝗥-𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗧 ($CRMT ) America’s Car-Mart was trading below $1 earlier this month. The stock is now trading around $1.50, putting its market value at roughly 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 $𝟭𝟯 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. Tomorrow, 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟱, the latest lender waiver expires. Car-Mart has been negotiating with Silver Point and other parties for months. Management continues to report progress toward a transaction, but we still don't know the terms or what today's shareholders will own afterward. Something from the last quarterly report is worth remembering. Car-Mart collected 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 $𝟭𝟬𝟴.𝟴 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 of loan principal while originating only $𝟰𝟭 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in new receivables. The company is collecting the business it built in previous years much faster than it is replacing it. Much of the cash is being used to repay debt, while the company still needs financing to purchase vehicles and originate new loans. Car-Mart also reported 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀’ 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 $𝟯𝟳𝟲.𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, or $45.20 per share. I wouldn't use that number alone to decide what CRMT is worth. For our FRAGMENTS report, I examined the $1.191 billion loan portfolio, the third-party appraisal of those receivables, comparable subprime auto portfolios and the ABS trusts to estimate how much value might eventually reach Car-Mart. I also went through 𝗦𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁’𝘀 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁, what the lenders are actually owed, their credit-bid rights and previous situations involving Silver Point. From there, I built 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿, 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 to estimate what the shares could be worth under different financing and ownership outcomes. At around $13 million of market value, there could be substantial upside if Car-Mart resolves its financing and current shareholders retain a meaningful percentage of the business. But Car-Mart could also survive under a new capital structure that leaves those shareholders with very little. Another extension would give the company more time. A transaction would finally give us something more important to calculate: 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗮𝗿-𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆’𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀. 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗿-𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁: 𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗢𝘄𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆? Out now on FRAGMENTS. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…