Markets, capital allocation & American energy
USA
Joined November 2016
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Andrew Kuhn retweeted
It’s wild that Leopold Aschenbrenner worked at FTX, witnessed a company implode under excessive leverage, insider dealing, and poor risk management, seemingly learned nothing from it, and then nearly blew up Situational Awareness with excessive leverage and poor risk management
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
Still can’t believe Citadel warned that the risk of rate hikes was high, triggered a selloff, bought the Situational Awareness portfolio after it was forced to unwind, then turned around and said the bull market remains healthy and intact.
You couldn’t make this up if you tried.
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
March 23: Postponed announced attacks on Iran’s power grid, citing “very good and productive” negotiations
March 26: Extended deadline by another 10 days; negotiations were “going very well.”
April 7: Two week ceasefire to give time to conclude a proposed 10-point plan
April 21: Extended ceasefire indefinitely after mediators requested more time
May 18: Held off a major strike because “serious negotiations” were underway
June 11: Canceled strikes hours after threatening to hit Iran “very hard,” claiming a negotiating breakthrough
June 17: Signed an interim ceasefire agreement ending hostilities and beginning a 60-day period to negotiate a final agreement
July 27: Paused bombing campaign to give diplomacy another chance
August 1: Canceled planned attack after claiming that Iran had agreed on parameters of a deal
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
This is the 5th time Trump has TACOed on his own strike.
Iran knows this, which means they can just shove the leverage all the way.
- demand payment
- demand Israel to withdraw from Lebanon
- demand SOH to be under Iran’s control
So unless Israel pulls out of Lebanon, this is already dead on arrival.
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
Now it makes sense why oil is down 4% today.
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
Another reminder that days like these are why I love investing in commodities.
When the market goes up, commodities go down.
When the market goes down, commodities go down.
Can't beat it, honestly.
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
This oil disruption is so large people cannot actually wrap their minds around it. The stress is there. It just is not showing up in front month crude prices. 321 cracks, have been screaming higher, not just WTI but Brent as well Murban. The market has been screaming "we have a problem," but it's showing up in places outside front month crude prices.
Markets get immune to headlines and try to look beyond. We see this time and time again. The MOU was a joke, yet markets reacted as if it were an actual deal. The Houthis hitting two ships woke the market up, then three tankers cleared the Red Sea the next day and the market gave back 5 bucks on Friday. Meanwhile Hormuz is still shut.
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
So the Iran war is back on, and it's like we're in March - except a TACO has already been tried and failed, and SPRs and commercial inventories are depleted.
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
Iran_deal_version23_final-final.pdf
TRUMP: IRAN CALLED A WHILE AGO; THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Iranian officials deny that any negotiations with the US are planned or taking place. bbc.com/news/live/cly9… reuters.com/world/middle-e…