Markets, capital allocation & American energy
USA
Joined November 2016
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Andrew Kuhn retweeted
It’s wild that Leopold Aschenbrenner worked at FTX, witnessed a company implode under excessive leverage, insider dealing, and poor risk management, seemingly learned nothing from it, and then nearly blew up Situational Awareness with excessive leverage and poor risk management
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
Still can’t believe Citadel warned that the risk of rate hikes was high, triggered a selloff, bought the Situational Awareness portfolio after it was forced to unwind, then turned around and said the bull market remains healthy and intact.
You couldn’t make this up if you tried.
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
March 23: Postponed announced attacks on Iran’s power grid, citing “very good and productive” negotiations
March 26: Extended deadline by another 10 days; negotiations were “going very well.”
April 7: Two week ceasefire to give time to conclude a proposed 10-point plan
April 21: Extended ceasefire indefinitely after mediators requested more time
May 18: Held off a major strike because “serious negotiations” were underway
June 11: Canceled strikes hours after threatening to hit Iran “very hard,” claiming a negotiating breakthrough
June 17: Signed an interim ceasefire agreement ending hostilities and beginning a 60-day period to negotiate a final agreement
July 27: Paused bombing campaign to give diplomacy another chance
August 1: Canceled planned attack after claiming that Iran had agreed on parameters of a deal
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
This is the 5th time Trump has TACOed on his own strike.
Iran knows this, which means they can just shove the leverage all the way.
- demand payment
- demand Israel to withdraw from Lebanon
- demand SOH to be under Iran’s control
So unless Israel pulls out of Lebanon, this is already dead on arrival.
He's giving his new Truth Social subscribers a chance to buy oil first before the missiles start flying
“Why am i seeing this”
🚨🇺🇸 A camera caught Bessent's Camp David notepad reading "Buy Japanese Yen $5-10 bil."
-The photo was taken over the Treasury Secretary's shoulder at 11:33 a.m. during the on-the-record portion of Trump's cabinet meeting, showing an underscored "To Do" followed by "Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5-10 bil"
-It surfaced after Reuters reported Treasury had told a number of banks, through the New York Fed, that it might step into the yen market that day and should "stand ready for future action"
-The yen had been scraping four-decade lows, trading as weak as 163.65 to the dollar Thursday before Japanese authorities intervened, then strengthening to 159.09 and jumping again late Friday to around 157.6
-Bessent said this week the yen "seems very undervalued to me" and that "excess volatility in the yen isn't healthy," while Japan's top currency official said the American support "goes beyond psychological support"
The last time Treasury propped up the yen was 2011, a coordinated G7 rescue after Japan's earthquake and tsunami.
Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniel
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
Now it makes sense why oil is down 4% today.
Andrew Kuhn retweeted
Another reminder that days like these are why I love investing in commodities.
When the market goes up, commodities go down.
When the market goes down, commodities go down.
Can't beat it, honestly.
Imagine telling someone a few years ago that Abqaiq gets attacked, and oil falls 6%.
😂
BREAKING: Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq refinery has been struck by drones, causing a massive fire at the facility and the East-West Pumping Station. NASA FIRMS satellite imagery confirms extensive fire activity at the site.
Abqaiq is the world’s largest crude oil stabilization plant, processing 5-7% of global oil supply.
Saudi Arabia has blamed Iran-backed resistance groups in Iraq for the attack, begun emergency flaring at multiple production sites, and says it reserves the right to respond.
