FAIR BET Act Tracker

🧵The Financial Mistake and of the new gambling tax: Why it effects even non-gamblers, further disfranchises the lower class, finances criminal organizations, hurts social programs such as education, and will hit the state governments. A mathematical, financial, political, macro, and microeconomic view with models and sources.

President Trump announced he may eliminate gambling tax. Last night December 10th, Polymarket's odds of a repeal before March 31st, 2026 hit 55% at 8:30pm before falling back to 32% at the time of this tweet. There is a 42% chance before 2027.

Sorry guys, no recent updates on the FAIR BET Act. Hoping one comes soon, and when it does, I’ll be first to report on it 🤞

🚨NEW COSPONSORS OF FAIR BET ACT🚨 @RepSalinas (D-OR), @RepGregStanton (D-AZ) New total: 13, 4R, 9D Other Sponsors: @repdinatitus @RepHorsford @RepSusieLee 3x(D-NV) @RepRoKhanna @RepGilCisneros 2x(D-CA) @RepTroyNehls (R-TX) @Congressman_JVD (R-NJ) @MarkAmodeiNV2 (R-NV) @RepDeluzio (D-PA) @GReschenthaler (R-PA) @RepDarrenSoto (D-FL) CONTACT YOUR REPS: congress.gov/members/fin

I accidentally had my DMs off since starting this account tracking the Fair Bet Act. I didn't realize I had my DMs completely shut off. Supporters of the Fair Bet movement, my DMs are now open for tips, information, or other Fair Bet Act needs. I have it open to everyone.

So @repdinatitus tried to attach the Fair Bet Act provisions to a larger bill on defense spending as it was a must pass. The rules committee got to choose whether to attach it or not and they didn't. So what options do we have left in the 4th Quarter of 2026? Well we have 3 paths: 1. We can keep Fair Bet Act as a standalone bill. These standalone bills have a generally low pass rate historically. Around 1%-3%. I believe Rep Titus's persistence and other cosponsors of both parties bring this drastically higher, but as for how much higher, that's a tough estimate. 2. We can reattach it as part of other Must-Pass Legislations (bills with a near 100% need to pass rate such as defense spending). These bills become what is known as "omnibus" packages, where multiple policies get packed into one bill and one vote. The unfair tax was part of an omnibus bus, and we can undo it with an omnibus bill. As far as i'm aware we have a Government Funding Package and a 2026 Budget Resolution left regarding the major omnibuses. 3. We can pursue it via Senate Action. With Cortez-Masto and Rosen in the Senate supporting the FULL HOUSE Act (the senate version of fair bet), we have another opportunity there to skirt around the house rules committee's rejection. The Senate could include it in their reconciliation package. In the meantime @repdinatitus and other cosponsors can continue garnering support on both sides of the aisle and increase lobbying efforts.

Congress resumes tomorrow 9/2. Here’s what to watch for in September regarding the gambling tax law. @repdinatitus who sponsored the Fair Bet Act to remove the unjust gambling tax law that will ruin professional gambling proposed an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for 2026. HR 3838. Scheduled for week of Sept 8th. This is a must pass bill for defense spending. This means if Rep Titus’s amendment is officially attached by the committee, then the probability of her fix passing is extremely high. Here’s what to watch for: When Congress resumes, the amendment must be officially submitted by Titus or a colleague likely to the House Armed Services Committee. The two committees that are important for this is the House Armed Services Committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee One of the initial co-sponsors @RepRoKhanna and two other cosponsors @RepGilCisneros @RepDeluzio sit on the House Armed Services Committee. The committee currently has 31 members (17 reps, 14 dems, the 3 cosponsors on the cmte are all dems) In the senate we have co-sponsor of the FULL HOUSE Act (the senate version of fair bet) @SenJackyRosen (dem) sitting on the armed services committee. The majority committee must approve of the house version of the bill. Currently it has 27 members (14 reps, 13 dems) So the process goes like this: both House and Senate committees concurrently draft their versions of the National Defense Authorization Act bill. Titus proposes amendment to House Armed Services cmte. They must approve it or she can go to House Rules to set it for a vote. The bill was drafted in July and is being marked up in Sept. Titus seems focused on the House Rules committee and with Congress on break, she may already know she unofficially has enough votes to push the amendment in and get it approved. If approved it goes to the House Rules committee for a full floor vote, the committee then determines what amendments are eligible for a full floor vote. Titus has submitted it to House Rules without Armed Services, but Armed Services gets a say in it too. This could be a follow up strategy to ensure the amendment reaches floor with or without Armed Services. House Rules has 13 members (9 rep, 4 dem, no cosponsors of fair bet act). Then if approved goes to House Floor Vote. If that passes and the separate senate bill on the NDAA gets approved. It goes to a conference committee to reconcile differences. Then a full house and senate vote takes place before landing on the president’s desk. My predictions: little less than coin flip odds House Rules approves it without House Armed Services approving it. I believe Armed Services probably would approve it. I also believe the full house would approve the overall NDAA, it’s been approved every year since 1961. If the senate does not include a version of the fair bet in their NDAA, and with house having one in their’s. @SenTedCruz and @RepRoKhanna who both support Fair Bet Act like amendments, both have clout in their parties to sway strategy in our favor, but neither hold formal titled leadership positions. Best thing we can do for our cause: -Contact your reps on the Armed Services committee of both the House and Senate -Contact your reps on the House Rules committee -Contact your state reps to vote in favor of the Fair Bet Act like amendments

Sorry everyone for lack of updates, Congress is on August break and will resume Sept 2nd. There’s been some new articles, but it’s largely restating already established facts and statements since there’ll be few updates without an active Congressional session. I didn’t want to make this account repetitive and reporting all of these would be redundant. Looking forward to covering news as it unfolds when Congress resumes. Polymarket and Kalshi odds of a repeal to the tax law have slowly fallen to 31% and 33% respectively from the 60%s before break. I believe these odds fell due to lack of updates but, since it was break that caused that, I believe the odds and the market have not properly calculated the actual probability. In other terms: I think the price is low.

🚨@repdinatitus Town Hall Summary🚨 Key Points: -Reiterated a lot of the tax fears of the gambling loss deductions of 90% confirmed to be as bad as we though -Confirmed the devastation that will happen to the Nevada economy and tourism -Highlighted the likeliness of people going off shore and being done filing taxes and how illegal sportsbooks benefit -Nothing rather ground breaking as I believe everyone has a pretty good understanding of how detrimental this is, not a bad thing in my view as it is a testament to how great we as an industry have been about spreading the word on this and educating people on the consequences of the new tax law -General consensus was the gambling tax was a bad idea, and universal support for removing the tax. Nice to see the right and left coming together on this, a rare moment of political unity -Overall thoughts from me is, it's nice to see momentum continuing, @repdinatitus's foot still on the pedal, and the discussion staying active even during congressional break, despite there being no ground breaking news. Key Speakers: Rep Dina Titus @repdinatitus Adam Robinson from @bettorsvoice Becky Harris @beckkyharrisnv from @unlv as Gaming Policy expert Russell Fox @russcfox as Financial and Tax expert Virginia Valentine from @NevadaResorts

🚨 @repdinatitus Town Hall Update 🚨 A 28 yearold New Jersey professional gambler stated he himself made an offshore account for the very first time to prove a point. He wagered $1,000 on the Dodgers game with an expected -1.1% loss. He stated that the sportsbook offshore would not be paying the taxes on the $11 they will make. He said he did this to prove a point, and I believe it was a powerful message on the ease of offshore, and how circumventing this tax would be easy. Another reason to keep sportsbooks legal and fair taxing in the US. A 90% loss deduction cap would increase more of this activity, this act of his was just a show but clearly demonstrated the logic of restoring deductions.

🚨FAIR BET Act Town Hall🚨 @repdinatitus is hosting a townhall Monday August 11th, on the Fair Bet Act and I submitted a question. If anyone else has questions, let me know in a reply below and I’ll submit them in too. My question: “Do you plan on getting more cosponsors for the Fair Bet Act during the congressional break? Also, since sharp betting volume makes up a large portion of the total hold and bet volume, and gambling companies pay $0.25 for every $100 bet, is the federal government aware this new tax would remove a significant portion of that tax revenue as almost every sharp bettor will lose their edge?”

🚨FAIR BET Act Update🚨 On Monday I will be tuning in and live tweeting / reporting the news as it unfolds

The Dutch had a 7.3% tax increase on gains, America is about to have an even harsher tax that effects losers too. The Dutch online gamble sector's gross rev was €1.47B in 2024, with a tax of 30.5% and rev of €448m. The new 37.8% rate was expected to yield €556m, a €108m increase from rate change and the €202m projection accounting for projected market growth. However, a decline in market share of licensed operators due to players shifting to black market operators resulted in a €200m shortfall. So not only did they slow an entire industry and job market, but they propped up black markets, and hurt individuals. A cautionary tale for if Congress does not overturn the gambling tax from the Big Beautiful Bill.

First time hearing this news from @fairplaygov! (goat) MGM Resorts, Wynn Resort, and Caesars CEOs met with the House Ways and Means chairman to discuss the gambling tax. The Chairman @RepJasonSmith said he would help work with them along with @repdinatitus to get that corrected.

The unfair gambling tax shoved into the OBBB was added in by the Senate Finance Committee chaired by @MikeCrapo. Now two new members of the finance committee Ranking Member (top Dem of committee) @RonWyden and member @SenRonJohnson both express openness to a rollback. Previously Chairman Crapo has also expressed openness to feedback on rolling it back. Both the Ways and Means Committee in the House and Finance Committee in the Senate seem to be growing in support. H/t: @fairplaygov