A Fiduciary Asset Manager for the New Economy -https://xitter.cf/t.co/Spa6rwM6Xx
Joined June 2015
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FMT Investment Advisory retweeted
Why is the overall market so fixated on $CRWV's imminent demise?
At the peak of the Dot Com bubble, $CSCO - the largest company in the world, and the $NVDA equivalent of the era - generated about 10% of its revenue from circular deals through vendor-financed startups.
When those startups lost access to capital, $CSCO's revenue growth went from +66% to -30% within a few quarters, and the stock lost 80% of its value. The same story played out across the dot com supply chain, sending the Nasdaq down 80%.
Today, $CRWV alone makes up roughly 8% of
$NVDA GPU sales. Losing that demand is enough to nuke $NVDA's growth story all by itself.
Oh, and $CRWV isn't an isolated example - every major neocloud is hemmoraghing cash and borrowing costs are going UP across the board.
If you lose the neoclouds, you lose the incremental growth driver for marginal data center capacity, and the AI capex trade goes up in smoke.
That's why we're seeing carnage across the entire AI supply chain, from $CAT and $GEV to $MU, $AVGO and more recently $NVDA.
This is what the beginning of the end of a debt-fueled, circular-financed capex bubble looks like.
The energy bull market is going to be one for the ages.
That capital is almost entirely being returned via share buybacks and balance sheet reduction while investors ignore oil is almost 100 WTI as if we have abundance is becoming one of the most fascinating psychology developments in history.
If the Fed starts persistently hiking rates everybody be fucked, most especially the U.S. government and the system itself.
So...
The Fed will ultimately find its way to YCC, and they are already behind the curve.
1940s playbook is the only plausible playbook.
FMT Investment Advisory retweeted
A lot is getting accomplished for Israel they want to control the Middle East and Trumo is compromised and in their back pocket.
And when it's over the headlines and algos will smash oil prices on the headlines. After that, the real oil show begins.
Not many understand this.
And if this keeps persisting... goodbye strategic reserves, hello larger restocking down the road. Plus, get ready for massive supply chain issues from food to goods and services getting much more expensive.
The energy bull market has finally arrived.
Sorry people but we voted for this compromised and corrupt admin.
When you f$&k with free markets and private property we won’t say nice things.
Equilibrium will be a b@tch. Making the economy that much worse.
The adjustment in higher oil and energy costs is going to be a real problem for a lot of people that simply refuse to heed history.
Tier 1 wells - Done. Capital spending - nil.
U.S. Shales days of growth are over.
90% of ALL non OPEC supply growth since 2016.
That’s the real story.
The wars are just icing on the cake.
The next bubble will be in producers with Secretary year life reserves when restocking starts.
It’s why fixed income across the entire bond spectrum is getting whacked.
Please give a moment of silence for Edward Jones customers.
Long term debt is an iou and promise that economic growth will be robust and money printing will be low.
In an every deficit cycle that isn’t going to happen and the bond markets know it.
Bessent can talk down oil - that will catch up to the admin — but he can’t talk down Treasury yields and he’s only got a water gun to try
🚨 GOLDMAN SACHS DROPS DOOMSDAY STATEMENT: U.S. BONDS HAVE NO BUYERS
Goldman Sachs just admitted the long end of U.S. Treasury market is “totally bidless.”
Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell.
No buyers. None. Zero.
While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,” doubles then triples long-bond buybacks, taps the General Treasury Account to fund it and openly says “I am the house.”
Yields are surging anyway. The 10-year has pushed toward 5.3% and the 30-year is even higher, levels not seen in years while Japan, one of the biggest foreign holders, keeps selling Treasuries and bringing money home.
This was exactly warned by Japan’s @yutokanzakireal that the measures being prepared by Bank of Japan will affect the lives of billions of people and apologized to people of the West.
Soon after, Scott Bessent intervened and effectively took over BoJ operations which Japanese policymakers heavily criticized.
If the same ”bidless” condition hits the short-dated treasuries market, the entire U.S. debt market (and global) collapses.
The U.S. debt crisis will turn into a global liquidity crisis.
The pothole we are going to land in is going to be gigantic.
With almost no capital going into the producers, over 2 million bpd will be going to restocking if not more AFTER the wars, U.S. shale growth almost over, and everyone believing we still live in an energy abundance cycle...
Well, FMT can't wait to hear the cries of the administration et al that the producers aren't producing enough.
Coming to a theatre near us soon.
Jeff Currie’s most interesting point isn’t whether Treasury actually shorted oil futures.
It doesn’t have to.
A credible threat of intervention may be enough to drive capital out of paper oil and impair price discovery.
Physical oil prices scarcity. Paper oil prices Washington risk.
@CommodMkt
Interest rates have always followed oil prices. CAPEX energy cycles dictate the macro backdrop.
It’s going to be a world of hurt if you know where we are in the energy CAPEX cycle.
We are in the first inning of the energy bull market.
Trump is such an @sshole
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