I purchased the Pennsylvania voter file this morning and replicated the NC weekly new partisan registrations trend analysis. The long-term trend of increasing share of Democratic registrations is evident, but there isn't a sharp mid-Sept. drop-off like NC michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

A plot of NC new registrations by party registration during Trump's second term of office. I include @50plus1news Trump approval trendline. There's good correlation until the bottom drops out for Republicans mid-Sept. More analysis here: michaelmcdonald.substack.com…

#earlyvote morning update 10/2: at least 1 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

#earlyvote evening update 9/30: at least 692,104 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

#earlyvote morning update 9/29: over half a million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

#earlyvote evening update 9/28: at least 400,020 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…

If you want my early voting takes, a reminder you'll have to go to another site

New Mexico as of 1pm central time shows same pattern as Florida. More no-party/minor party Election Day. Larger drop-off among registered Republicans than Democrats

In advance of exit poll crosstabs going live on the networks at 5pm

Here's the 4pm Delaware update. Election Day continuing to look more blue than in-person early vote