@EMgist

Macro watcher since 2005. Ex-EM Debt Analyst. Synthesizer-trader of market narratives. “(+/-)” = Bullish/bearish over ST/M-LT). Personal views, not advice.

 Los Angeles, CA
Joined November 2013
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1.9KMedia
US elections: What the Biden-Trump Rematch Means for the US Stock Market - Bberg SPX VIX bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

What the Harris-Trump Face-Off Means for the US Stock Market

Elections in Mexico, India and Europe have set off upheavals in global stock markets this year. In the US, investors contending with uncertainty related to inflation, interest rates and geopolitics...

bloomberg.com
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France: Macron’s approval rating fell to lowest level since Dec 2018 - Elabe for daily Les Echos. 24% trust Macron to tackle problems, down 5 points from May $EUR OAT CAC EWQ (-), EWI BTP (-/=)
Bloomberg
@business13 Jun 2024
French president Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating falls to its lowest level since December 2018, according to a poll carried out after he called snap vote trib.al/eG0wj6d
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France: Govt debt (excl. guarantees related to EFSF) will reach 112.1% of GDP in 2027, up from 109.0% in 2023. General govt debt-to-GDP ratio has become 3rd-highest in euro area after that of Greece and Italy - S&P Ratings $EUR OAT CAC EWQ (=/-)
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France election poll: Le Pen’s RN jump from 88 to 235, falling short of absolute majority. Macron’s centrists halved from 250 to 125-155 - Harris via Reuters $EUR CAC OAT (=/-) reuters.com/world/europe/fra…
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France elections, EZ: Risk that France parliament may be led by far-right may focus attn on France’s dismal fiscal situation, which could shake up euro - Rabobank Foley $EUR OAT CAC (=/-) Dates: June 30: Lower house first round Jul 7: Runoff
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EM elections: India, South Africa eqty mkts has recovered much of post-election shock of diminished ruling govt while Mexico still reeling from larger mandate for ruling party - chart via Bberg Authers $INDA $EZA (=), $EWW $MXN $Mbono $Mexbol (=)
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Mexico: Fear of policy risk that AMLO will force 20 non-mkt friendly constitutional reforms up in Congress in his last month of his term given 1mth overlap with new Congress (just need to convince 4 opposition senators) - BAML via Bberg Authers EWW MXN Mbono Mexbol (-)
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Mexico: Most controversial reforms relate to judiciary, elections, autonomous regulators and energy sector EWW MXN Mbono Mexbol (=/-) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Market Is a Factor in Mexico Congress’ Next Steps, Senator Says

Mexico’s ruling party will keep the market in mind as it moves to discuss constitutional reforms, Senate Majority Leader Ricardo Monreal said in an interview.

bloomberg.com
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Fed: 41% economist plurality see Fed signaling 2 cuts in June “dot plot,” while equal expect forecasts to show just 1 or no cuts at all - Bberg survey 61% need to see 3mths “positive core CPI” before cut - Bberg survey *Baseline = Q4 cut(s) unless strong recession signs sooner
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Week ahead: Wed: GE CPI US CPI, Fed FOMC / SEP Thu: US PPI $TSLA annual mtg Fri: JP BOJ Watching: DXY (+/=), UST (=), JPY (=/+), EUR (-/=), SPX (v/=)
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Fedspeak NLP Index: What 60,000 Headlines Say About the Fed’s Next Move - Bberg bloomberg.com/news/features/…

What 60,000 Headlines Say About the Fed’s Next Move

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish December pivot saved the US from recession. Now, getting inflation back under control requires a hawkish reversal.

bloomberg.com
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China eqty: Chart technicals are positive - Bberg $MCHI $Shcomp $HSI (=/+), $KWEB $CHIR (=) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

China’s Stocks Are Primed for Further Gains, These Charts Show

China’s battered stocks look set for more gains after last week’s rumor-driven wagers on reopening sparked a rally, if technical patterns are any guide.

bloomberg.com
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Week ahead - 17-20 Oct: Mon/17: $BAC, ECB speak Tue/18: $GS, US IP, China GDP+IP+Retail Wed/19: EZ CPI, Fed speak+Beige book Thu/20: US existing home sales $MCHI $KWEB $CQQQ $EUR $UST (v/+)
Japan: MoF has $120-130bn to use for intervention before it has to start selling USTs and so it has another 5-6 shots if they intervene at $20bn rate it did on 22 Sep - Credit Agricole $JPY $UST (v/-), $USD $DXY (v/+)
investingLive
@investingLive_12 Oct 2022
JPY: MoF Has 5 to 6 more shots at a $20bn rate of intervention - Credit Agricole forexlive.com/news/jpy-mof-h…

JPY: MoF Has 5 to 6 more shots at a $20bn rate of intervention - Credit Agricole

What's next on the intervention front?

investinglive.com
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UK: Four steps that the BOE could take to repair gilt market - HSBC Major via FT $GBP $Gilt $Bund $UST (=/v) on.ft.com/3EA1xaV
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US-China tech: US restricts exports of advanced semiconductors, chips $MCHI $KWEB $CQQQ $SOX $SMH (-/v)
LongConvexity
@LONGCONVEXITY10 Oct 2022
Here's how new US restrictions on tech exports to China could undercut Beijing’s ability to develop wide swaths of its economy, from supercomputers and chips to advanced weapons bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @bpolitics

‘No Possibility of Reconciliation’ as US Slams China Chips

The Biden administration’s new restrictions on technology exports to China could undercut the country’s ability to develop wide swaths of its economy, from semiconductors and supercomputers to...

bloomberg.com
Week ahead - 10-14 Oct: Mon/10: Fed Brainard Tue/11: Fed Mester, IMF WEO Wed/12: Fed FOMC minutes, US PPI, ECB Lagarde Thu/13: US CPI, EIA oil inventory Fri/14: US Retail sales, UMich sentiment, bank earnings $UST $EUR (v/=), $USD $DXY $SPX $XRT $XLF (v/-), $Oil $WTI $USO (v/+)
China Covid Cases Rebound ahead of Party Congress: Highest nationwide case count since 2 Sep. 8 cases in Beijing $MCHI (=/v) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

China Covid Cases Rebound as Party Gears Up for Key Congress

China is being hit by a rebound in Covid-19 cases following the week-long National Day holiday, just as the country’s top leaders gather in Beijing for a meeting with President Xi Jinping.

bloomberg.com
US eqty: G5 Credit Impulse printed at 20yr lows on fiscal drag + China de-leveraging + insufficient bank lending pickup. While analysts expect earnings to grow by 8% in 2023, Credit Impulse sees double-digit EPS contraction. Earnings will disappoint hard - @MacroAlf $SPX (=/-)
Alf
@MacroAlf4 Oct 2022
I'll soon update this chart on The Macro Compass, but the big picture still holds. Analysts are just beginning to reckon that EPS growth will slow down. Yet, my Credit Impulse metric suggests the magnitude of the drop in 2023 earnings is likely to surprise many.
China - Sell-side bank reasons for eqty optimism post-Party Congress: Sharper focus on economy - Citi Reintegration w/ ROW - BAML Reduced conflicting policy goals - GS $MCHI $KWEB $CQQQ $EEM (+) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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