My journey on FinTwit has been nothing short of incredible. When I set to go on my own in 2021, I remember a friend from the rates industry telling me “You are posting your thoughts on other platforms, but you’re missing out on the biggest of them all. Try Twitter”. I had never used it in my life, but it clicked immediately. The whole ecosystem was about deep research, sharing ideas, and some fair banter - just a fantastic place where to get high quality financial info. I still remember working overnight on the “banking crash” of 2023 as I felt I could add value given it was about interest rate derivatives - my home turf. Followers and impressions grew at an outrageous pace. A few times I was stopped in NY and London by fellow FinTwitters asking if I was “MacroAlf”. Crazy stuff. Fast forward to today, unfortunately all of that it’s gone. It’s mostly low quality info, accounts flaming each others to get subscribers to their newsletters, and a ton of selective “look how smart I was” self-quote posts. I hope it will come back to what it was. Really. In the meantime a few people pointed me to the post below. It is flattering but incorrect. I have gotten a lot of things publicly wrong. And I don’t have any issues admitting it. My win rate has always been around 50%. Good luck to everyone. I miss the good old FinTwit.

Hi guys, quick announcement. I won't be posting here anymore until further notice. To everyone who supported my work and engaged fruitfully over the years: thank you. If you want to be in touch, my email is: alf at my research firm dot com And remember: never break pasta.

New TMTF podcast out with my buddy Brent Donnelly. - Maybe the Fed is ready to move dovish, but what's already priced in bond markets? - How to think about carry when setting up trades - Sometimes Brent is more Italian than me Check it out on your preferred podcast platform

Not sure who needs to hear this. But with Fed Funds at 4.33% and terminal rate at 3.1%, long bonds are not offering big juice and carry is quite limited. The curve could still be way steeper as the inflation risk premia goes up.

So the US enacted a $300 billion tax hike for 2025 with pretty much no offsetting new fiscal injection this year. Perhaps investors should include this in their assessment going forward?

The S&P 500 is down 4% this year when measured in EUR.

US curve steepeners are very popular, but you pay to own them (negative carry and roll) and Bessent can hit you with QRA changes, buybacks and more. I would say there are better “fiscal dominance” expressions out there?

Everyone obsesses about US fiscal, but the pivot from austere budgets to fiscal spending in Europe and Asia is equally important. Fiscal deficits are a global phenomenon now, and that’s the real news.

Over the last 3 years, the S&P 500 has underperformed Gold by 13%. That's including dividends for SPX and the opportunity cost (e.g. negative carry) of holding Gold instead of T-Bills.

''The USD has stopped going down'' crowd often forgets that other fiat currencies are just one release valve for this trade Precious metals, long-end yields and crypto are also key release valves for ''debase-and-run-it-hot'' policies This macro theme rermains intact for now

Hoping to bring back the old FinTwit vibes, I’d like to propose a challenge: Macro FinTwit Best Trade Idea. Here are the rules of this simple game. Once every 3 months I will tweet and ask everyone who wants to participate (including me) to reply with her best macro trade idea. The reply must include a tradable ticker and it can be as simple as an ETF or as complex as a hedge-fund like trade. All trades will be measured for their realized sharpe ratio so picking a high vol instrument won’t help the participant. I will also proxy total return, so negative carry will matter. You can’t make any adjustment to trade during the next 3 months - you simply hold the trade to maturity. The challenge is valid until market opens on Sunday evening. Reply below and don’t quote tweet your trade or I can’t keep track. I’ll post my trade below too. The winner gets a public shot out and an invite to be followed. And macro FinTwit glory of course. Shoot your macro trade!

There is way too much complacency about next week. Remember we are talking about Trump here.

Bessent just asked the Senate to eliminate Section 899 from the bill. So we get BACO on top of TACO now? :)

This is one of the best setups for emerging markets I can think of. And a decade of underperformance means almost everyone is underallocated to EM.

US consumer spending is running at a pace barely half (!) its pre-pandemic trend. This crude oil rally is not going to make things better.

Macro investing is a never-ending learning journey. It’s all about relationships with great people that are willing to share. Be nice, be humble, share and listen carefully.

Picture this. The US is a big oil producer and the issuer of the global reserve currency. Military escalation in Middle East. And yet, the US Dollar can’t rally…

The last 3 core CPI prints averaged 0.14% MoM. That’s lower than in several pre-pandemic periods. The labor market is far from tight. Watch out for Fed speakers…

The new Fed chair Bessent is going to bring rates down. They will be low. So low. It will be beautiful. Thanks for your attention to this matter.