mayer multiple z-score just broke its cycle downtrend. 2020: broke at $9k. ran to $69k. 2023: broke at $20k. ran to $125k. 2026: broke at $69k. two for two. both went 5x+ for $BTC. waiting on the third.

the bitcoin bottom used to be a moment; now it's a zone. days $BTC spent in the capitulation band before leaving: 2015: ~60 2019: ~5 2020: 1 2026: 200+ and still in it

sixth bounce for bitcoin off the floor of the power law channel since 2013. the chart keeps doing the thing.

this signal called the $BTC bottom every cycle but one. 2015: sharpe ratio climbed out of capitulation, fell back in, and price dropped from $294 to $228 before the real low. a 22% fake-out. 2019, 2022, now: clean exits. we just left -1 again. worst case on record is one more 22% shakeout.. best case is what happened every other time.

$BTC LTH-SOPR below 1 since february. 2015: held the low. 2019: held the low. 2020: held the low. 2022: held the low. 2026: seven months in. odds say the low is behind us.

eight weeks ago, maximum panic on this chart cost $63,000. today, perfectly average costs ~$85,000. the mayer multiple z-score round-tripped from -1.6σ back to 0.. price rallied 29% just to get back to "normal."

is that a single orange bar after seven months of blue? yes. is a single orange bar how 2015, 2019, 2020 and 2023 all started? also yes. the bull-bear cycle indicator just flipped positive for $BTC. small signal. they all start small.

one of the best $BTC charts you've never seen, from an account with under 500 followers. every cycle, normalized by days since its bottom. the circles are where each one went under power-law support.. the same area we just left ($58k). target: $250k. chart: @fiatbadbtcgood

bitcoin trades like a damped spring around its power-law trend. every cycle the swing compresses. that's why the top never went manic and the bottom never went to -85%. same $BTC cycle. smaller swing. the oscillator's at -99 anyway.