imagine the same prediction market being available through your wallet, your broker and the exchange itself potentially the same underlying liquidity but different costs depending on where you trade i wonder how much that starts to matter as more apps integrate prediction markets will ppl care enough about a few cents to switch interfaces or will convenience win? esp interesting when the apps bringing in the users are also earning fees from every trade

quick look at the current pre-market fdvs and prediction markets for the big 3 perp dex projects 🧐 variational is at $561m fdv on aspecta. on polymarket, it’s priced in the $1-2b range. • honestly, aspecta doesn’t seem like a market to take too seriously. $var was previously expected to list on lighter pre-market. if we see a listing there, we can get a clearer picture. ⁃ extended is listed on lighter and hyperliquid pre-market, with a current fdv of around $250m. on polymarket, the odds of $300m are 32%, while $500m is at 14%. ⁃ pacifica is at around $250m fdv. according to prediction markets, the odds of $100m are 11%, while $200m is only at 8%. ▫️of course, these are just the current odds on prediction markets, not guaranteed outcomes. my expectations for tge are: @variational_io $var: $1-1.5b @extendedapp $xten: $230-250m @pacifica_fi $pac: $150-180m these are my expectations for tge. worth mentioning that i expect much better moves after tge as well 👀

FOMC day. Decision 19:00 CET, Warsh presser 19:30 CET. Kalshi: 93% hold at 3.75-4.00%. Futures: >80% for a December hike. The hold is priced. Watch the vote: 2+ hawkish dissents = December basically locked in. BTC ~$80.8k into it. Expect wicks both ways. NFA

Fed day. A hold is ~94% priced (Polymarket). That's not the trade. The trade is December: Polymarket has a hike at 75%, a cut before January 2027 at ~10%. Plenty of crypto timelines are still waiting for cuts. The market stopped waiting. Warsh confirms that today, or pushes back.

now the ballondor over and everywhere is calm let's explain what happens what and why prediction markets combine an order book and an AMM this is called a hybrid and prediction markets use the word hybrid for completely different things, let me clear it up ⤷ why some prediction markets use hybrids: a brand new market has no traders, and an order book with no orders is empty, so there's no price to see and nothing to trade against most new users would take one look and leave an AMM fixes that, because a pool and a formula always quote a price ⤷ but AMMs have their own problem, as explained in the quoted post and since an AMM only moves when someone trades, its price can stayput while the real world changes so why not combine both?, let's look into AMMs and Order books the core idea? ⤷ use each one where it's strong for a new prediction market, the AMM posts quotes inside the order book, e.g a buy at 49c and a sell at 51c. the first visitor sees a real price and can trade. As real traders show up, they post their own orders, often at better prices they compete with the AMM, and once the book is deep, the AMM becomes a backup that refills the book when orders run out making sure the AMM fixes the empty book problem, and the order book fixes the slippage problem but now big prediction markets like @Kalshi and @Polymarket each use another hybrid style for @Polymarket orders are matched off chain by a fast backend, like a normal exchange Placing or cancelling an order costs no gas fee, that's why you hear things like "zero gas fees" the final swap of shares and money settles on chain on Polygon, so it's transparent and you keep custody of your funds But why not do everything on chain? ⤷ a blockchain is too slow and expensive for every order and cancellation, it's great for final settlement, not for constant trades one problem about this tho is what we call ghost fills (will explain in another post) @Kalshi runs a fully centralized order book, so every trade and settlement is done by the company themselves the problem about this? the orders might be matched wrongly or resolved poorly the good thing is that it's CFTC regulated basically customer protection, so it would be hard to rig so the next time you see a prediction market, ask two questions ⤷ how does it set prices? ⤷ and where does it settle? the answers will tell you more about the risks than the odds do which type of hybrid did you already know about?

After dipping my toes in so many speculative products, my fav asset class is prediction markets where you win by finding gaps in the probabilities and predict the likely outcome of reality.

A prediction market can move from an 80% lead to near certainty in hours. This Polymarket screenshot shows Lula at 99% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 1% in a market labeled Brazil Presidential Election, with about $232.7 million in displayed volume. Those odds reflect prices paid by market participants and the market’s contract wording; they are not official election results or a guarantee of the outcome. Before interpreting a dramatic move, check the resolution criteria, liquidity, time horizon and whether the market is correctly labeled. Not financial advice.

Governor odds, 7 days out: bettors see three blue flips. Polymarket / Kalshi: OH: Acton (D) 83.5% / 83% NV: Ford (D) 71.5% / 72% GA: Bottoms (D) 63% / 61% WI: Crowley (D) 80.5% / 79% KS: Masterson (R) 75.5% / 78%, a likely GOP pickup Market odds, not votes. #Midterms2026