Is this a local bottom for #bitcoin and other digital assets? I as well as anyone never knows for sure, but one chart I do like to use to help gauge the probabilities is the short-term holder MVRV chart along with their cost basis (first chart). Note that if this indeed is a regular 20-30% drawdown within the current bull market, then the MVRV ratio is showing a similar valley as before, testing the mettle of short-term holders before resetting to move higher. Another great one is the fear and greed index, which tends to hit extreme levels at these local tops and bottoms (second chart). This is not a prediction, but given the lack of negative fundamental news or changes (and in fact the opposite lately), this data tips my assessed probabilities in favor of this being a regular and healthy drawdown. Charts source: Glassnode, 11/18/2025.

"Who is selling?" Is the number one question I've been getting regarding #bitcoin's continued price pressure against a backdrop of visible buying (by ETPs, corporations etc.) I'm not unique in suggesting it's the long-term holders (or HODLers). But one data point that gives more color is the simple metric of percent of coins active 1 year or more. As you can see in the chart below, this line goes up during bear markets (more holding on as coins age and people are sitting on losses) and then usually a dramatic decline as these longer-term holders sell into the strength of a bull market. What is interesting with this cycle is the relatively gentle slope down with this bull market. It didn't plunge when new highs were made. It's a consistent slow bleed as the market has slowly moved sideways and up. To me this makes sense from a psychological viewpoint and I've been seeing and hearing this from people anecdotally, our clients included. Bitcoin's performance has recently lagged gold's, even the S&P, and people are getting tired. Everyone was expecting a euphoric end to the 4-year cycle and was waiting to sell into the historically strong seasonality of October and now November. But as October's strong seasonal pattern didn't hold up and the calendar year is coming to a close, long-term holders are looking to make year-end tax and positional changes, calling it a day with the gains they already have. I will be watching this slope along with some other metrics to gauge seller exhaustion, but for now the positive fundamental developments and lackluster price action continue to diverge in my opinion. Chart Source: Glassnode 11/10/25.

Bitcoin Knots now powers ~15% of public nodes. Which version do you run—and why? Share your thoughts. ⬇️

The number of public companies that hold 1,000+ BTC continues to grow, potentially signaling heightened institutional interest in bitcoin. Analyst Zack Wainwright on our team has been tracking this closely, particularly the companies holding 1,000 BTC or more. We have gone from 24 companies at the end of Q1 2025, to 30 at the end of Q2 and now have 35 so far into Q3!

Are you too late? In our 2025 Look Ahead report, the @DigitalAssets research team explored a thought many investors shared in January: Is it “too late” to enter digital assets? With over half of 2025 behind us, we’re revisiting the question—as well as the trends we anticipated shaping the year ⬇️:

As of June 12, Bitcoin's mempool is relatively empty while price is still trending toward all-time highs, making for an atypical combination. Could this potentially signal digital assets' deeper integration within traditional finance? Unlike 2017, 2021, or 2023–2024's activity following the introduction of Ordinals, we’re also seeing low miner revenue from fees and growing use of the Lightning Network—all suggesting further off-chain activity. Check out our recent report on the state of the Lightning Network here: fidelitydigitalassets.com/re…