Tools to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ Donate: https://xitter.cf/t.co/TNsNtbdfq3
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Here you go:
We have it for every party under whatever vote share across a bunch of different electoral systems and per region:
devolvedelections.co.uk/west…
We've added new shadings for each party in all our maps, here you can see where our Nowcast thinks the NI parties will get their votes in May.
SF, DUP, AP, UUP
Our model has a full 12 seats being decided by under 1%, Labour are narrowly winning most of them ahead of the SNP. All 12 are pure coin flips.
This is a much stronger showing for Labour than yesterday's Survation poll, it's pretty far from our Nowcast but this one will go into our average since it was funded by a party.
On 5% this is a surprisingly high result for Restore.
Our Scottish Westminster projection based on the latest @moreincommonuk poll
🎗️ SNP — 25
🌹 Lab — 20
🌳 Con — 7
🔶 LD — 5
The SNP would retake the lead in seats but not by as big a margin as Labour's vote holds up in the central belt.
devolvedelections.co.uk/west…
As always we won't add this to our database because it's a party funded poll, but it is pretty close to our Nowcast.
The only seat that's different is Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire flips on these numbers but stays Lib Dem in our Nowcast.
On these numbers, we don't project a single seat to be won with over 50% of the vote. A few Lib Dem seats and the SNP in Dundee are pretty close.
Under our new Westminster model this works out as:
🎗️ SNP — 46 seats
🔶 LD — 5
🌳 Con — 3
🌹 Lab — 3
The SNP are swamping Labour as they did in 2015, 2017 and 2019
NEW: Scottish Westminster Voting Intention on behalf of @theSNP
SNP: 34% (+4)
Labour: 20% (-15)
Reform UK: 18% (+11)
Conservative: 12% (-1)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 6% (+2)
Others: 3% (+2)
Changes since the 2024 General Election
F/w 18th September - 12th October 2026
