Systematic Multi-Strategy. Commodities/Financials Diversified.

Australia
Joined July 2014
I already got hosed on the BRL, ouch! Never liked forex, but system's better with them than without.
A LOT of fintwitters are going to get hosed on the Brazil trade (myself included )
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Replying to @Merridew__
Also -11% on the currency trade, wild move for forex.
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Replying to @oluisrel @clenow
The better book (its not just Trend) 😉
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Replying to @JoachimMo1985
Two different problems with results MAE in 2 directions: 1. MAE measures from the trade entry, that can be a long time before the current day. In that problem it overstates for losing trades 2. MAE doesn't show anything for todays profit give-backs for trades with unrealised P&L, in that respect it understates. So it depends on your trade mix and how much open P&L you're carrying. Long term systems / trend following I see larger MnNP than MAE because there's usually lots of open profit, as many losers already got stopped out. Short term mean reversion I see larger MAE because they've only been open a few days and on the bad days they're mostly all in a loss and contributing to MAE from their entry prices. Eg my long side of trend following strategy only looks like this first screenshot. Mean reversion systems the second screenshot. (I renamed them now too). Usually commenting out MAE on results though, but its ok at trade level.
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Repetitive AI sock puppet account from dangerdave.
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Speaking of big moves like yesterday, some newer stats for Realtest that show single day risk in a better way than MAE (from v32.4)
Replying to @JoachimMo1985
MAE doesn't actually work for portfolio level enough to tell us the full intraday move. When you test it, any position still in profit doesn't contribute to it, so it's excluding give-backs. Marsten responded with new stats we can use - Lowest(S.NetPctMin, Periods-1), or use S.NetPctMin for %
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Green line looks smooth enough, but calculating Sharpe on daily settlements is hiding that sometimes we suffer big intraday vol like yesterday. Commodities & Financials reversing at the same time, longs down, shorts up. My phone woke me up with an alert, but there was nothing to do but wait and see. That kind of alert is just in case I've underestimated my margin buffer and need to move some cash around.
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Replying to @MichaelNaussCMT
True within the world of equtities. But diversification is a free lunch and all that, so make it all you can eat :)
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Replying to @CuriousPleb_
Carry took me months to build and even then was changing it more months later, my way is complex. But lookup Resolve Asset management Webinar and white paper on building Carry. Also Clenow's book and this video are a good starting point: youtu.be/heHEkR3K5dI?si=IdbN…
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Replying to @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
It's a big risk caused by clicking this button ;)
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The trend that doesn't end, TSR20 Rubber. Slow Mean Reversion and Carry also came along for the ride buying dips on this one, while the original 2025-07 position is still holding on. This kind of trade can make up for over 10 losing trades.
Rubber's been a hell of a good trade for the patient, but today's pullback is brutal. It ain't over till it's over though.. This isn't the first end of a decent trend, I suspect it's the beginning of whipsaw season for these kind of futures systems now.
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Too early maybe, not too late - it was going down for 2 months, so any earlier would've been a worse entry. This is enough until Nov though when its seasonally better.
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Really get to see some Quality companies trading Russell 3000 Universe! $LQDA
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