Wait .. Stick with your first optionā¦
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THE BREWERS SMELL BLOOD. šŗ
10/14 | MLB BEST BET #1 ā¾ļø
1U | Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+156)
#ThisIsMyCrew
Iāve been on the Dodgers in two straight games, and theyāve let me down both times. Yes, both were in Milwaukee, but at some point, you have to give this Brewers team credit. They just took down Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in consecutive games, and now theyāre heading into Los Angeles with a 2-0 series lead.
This Dodgers offense just hasnāt been what weāve expected to see in October. Theyāre batting .193 this postseason and are 2-for-26 with runners in scoring position. Shohei Ohtani has surprisingly struggled, going 3-for-20 without an extra-base hit. Obviously, weāre talking about one of the best players in baseball, and that can change in a heartbeat. Maybe getting back home helps, but right now this lineup simply isnāt producing.
Now letās talk about Robert Gasser because I LOVE what Iāve been seeing from him lately. Heās exactly the type of unexpected contributor teams like Milwaukee need during a postseason run. A guy who started the season in Triple-A is now being trusted to start Game 3 of the NLCS, and heās earned that opportunity.
Gasser has been outstanding down the stretch, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.73 ERA over his last seven appearances. In his NLDS outing against San Diego, he delivered 4 innings of 1-run baseball, allowing just 3 hits. Heās also held opposing hitters to a .123 batting average over his last three starts. These are the unexpected surges that can make a HUGE difference in October.
What makes this matchup even more interesting is how poorly Los Angeles has performed against left-handed pitching recently.
Dodgers L10 vs LHP:
⢠.179 BA
⢠.259 xwOBA
⢠.350 xSLG
⢠39 wRC+
That 39 wRC+ is especially concerning. Theyāre producing runs at a significantly below-average rate against lefties, and now theyāre facing a pitcher whoās been throwing some of his best baseball of the season.
On the other side, Blake Snell is another extremely tough assignment. Iām not taking anything away from his ability, but Milwaukee has already shown they can make elite pitchers uncomfortable. They got Yamamoto out of Game 2 after just 2ā
innings, and Iād love to see a similar approach against Snell.
Milwaukee has been playing some really effective small ball, using its speed to pressure opposing pitchers and defenses, working counts, and coming through with clutch hits when needed. If they can force Snell into long at-bats and get into that Dodgers bullpen earlier than expected, I LOVE their chances.
And speaking of bullpens, Milwaukeeās has been absolutely RIDICULOUS this postseason.
Brewers bullpen this postseason:
⢠28ā
innings pitched
⢠0.31 ERA
⢠9ā
scoreless innings against LA
The Dodgers are just 2-for-30 against Milwaukeeās relievers in this series. Thatās how difficult itās been for this lineup to get anything going once the starters leave the game.
Realistically, Iām not expecting Gasser to go deep. Iām thinking around four innings, maybe even less depending on how things unfold. If he can limit the damage, keep this game close, and hand things over to that bullpen, Iāll feel GREAT about where weāre sitting.
The day off was also HUGE. Milwaukee should have its top relievers available, and with how dominant that group has been throughout October, Iām comfortable with them potentially being asked to cover five innings.
I donāt expect Milwaukee to take its foot off the gas either. Yes, this series is shifting to Los Angeles for three straight games, but taking a commanding 3-0 lead would put tremendous pressure on the Dodgers in their own ballpark.
Iāve given the Dodgers two opportunities to show me something, and Milwaukee has answered both times. Iām not counting LA out because this lineup is far too talented, but Milwaukee has earned my respect.
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October 13th, Recap š§¾
0-2 | -1U
ā 0.75U | JosĆ© RamĆrez O1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
ā 0.25U | JosĆ© RamĆrez O1.5 Total Bases
3 straight reverse sweeps.
Highkey the worst stretch Iāve had. Picks have been terrible and thereās really no other way to put it.
But find someone whoās gonna be as transparent as I am through the good AND the bad. Iām not hiding shit.
Gotta figure this shit out.
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OCTOBER 13th, MLB CARD ā¾ļø
- 0.75U | JosĆ© RamĆrez O1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+106)
- 0.25U | JosĆ© RamĆrez O1.5 Total Bases (+168)
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OCTOBER 13th, MLB CARD ā¾ļø
- 0.75U | JosĆ© RamĆrez O1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+106)
- 0.25U | JosĆ© RamĆrez O1.5 Total Bases (+168)
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J-RAM IS PUTTING CLEVELAND ON HIS BACK! š„
10/13 | MLB BEST BET #1 & #2 ā¾ļø
0.75U | JosĆ© RamĆrez O1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0.25U | JosĆ© RamĆrez O1.5 Total Bases
#GuardsBall
JosĆ© RamĆrez has been absolutely ridiculous this postseason, and Iām riding the hot hand again tonight against Freddy Peralta and the Rays. Clevelandās offense runs through J-Ram, and heās been delivering when they need him most.
RamĆrez finished his final three ALDS games batting .417 (5/12) with 2 home runs, 7 RBIs, 5 runs scored, and a ridiculous 1.667 OPS. Heās been carrying this Cleveland offense, and I love the way heās swinging the bat heading into the ALCS.
The recent production speaks for itself:
⢠RamĆrez has cleared 1.5 HRR in four consecutive games, recording 6, 7, 4, and 6. Thatās 23 combined Hits + Runs + RBIs over his last four games.
⢠Heās also cleared 1.5 total bases in four straight games, recording 5, 5, 4, and 3. Heās averaging 4.25 total bases over that stretch.
⢠Over his last 10 games against right-handed pitching, RamĆrez is batting .292 with a .333 ISO and just an 11.1% strikeout rate. Heās been putting together quality at-bats while showing plenty of power.
Peralta is a talented pitcher, but I donāt expect him to work deep into this game. In his first playoff start against the Yankees, he lasted just 4ā
innings on 66 pitches. Iām not expecting six innings from him tonight either, which could give RamĆrez more opportunities against Tampa Bayās bullpen.
We actually saw something similar yesterday. Cleveland recorded 7 hits against Drew Rasmussen through six innings but had just one run to show for it, coming on a solo home run in the sixth. Rasmussen returned for the seventh and immediately surrendered another solo shot before Tampa Bay turned things over to its bullpen. Thatās when Cleveland really broke things open, scoring another 5 runs over the final two innings to finish with 7.
With the way Peralta has been pitching, I could see tonight following a very similar script. He could keep Cleveland from putting up runs early, but that doesnāt mean the opportunities wonāt be there. If heās out after four or five innings, Cleveland could have multiple innings to attack this Rays bullpen again.
RamĆrez has just one hit in six career plate appearances against Peralta, but Iām putting more weight on how well heās swinging the bat right now, especially with the potential to face multiple arms throughout this game.
I prefer the HRR market because RamĆrez can contribute in multiple ways. Whether heās getting on base, driving runners in, or coming around to score, heās been involved in just about everything Cleveland does offensively.
Iām also taking a smaller shot on his total bases at plus money. Four consecutive games with at least three total bases is impressive, and Iām willing to take that upside at this price.
Best Lines:
HRR O1.5: +106 ProphetX
Total Bases O1.5: +168 ProphetX
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ODDS LIKE NO OTHER! šš„
Traditional sportsbooks just havenāt been able to compare with some of the prices Iāve been finding on ProphetX!
If youāre serious about getting the best possible number on your plays, you NEED to be shopping your lines.
ProphetX has become one of my go-to platforms for exactly that reason!
And if you havenāt signed up yet, thereās an offer for new users! š
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October 12th, Recap š§¾
0-2 | -2U
ā Dodgers / Brewers U7 Total Runs
ā Kyren Williams O15.5 Longest Rush
Embarrassing. 0-2 and both plays were flat-out wrong. Thatās B2B reverse sweeps
Tomorrow we try again.
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OCTOBER 12th, BETTING CARD šā¾ļø
- 1U | Dodgers / Brewers U7 Total Runs (-103)
- 1U | Kyren Williams O15.5 Longest Rush (-108)
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OCTOBER 12th, BETTING CARD šā¾ļø
- 1U | Dodgers / Brewers U7 Total Runs (-103)
- 1U | Kyren Williams O15.5 Longest Rush (-108)
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ONE LANE IS ALL KYREN NEEDS! š„
10/12 | BEST BET #2 š
Kyren Williams O15.5 Longest Rush
#RamsHouse
I like Kyren Williams to break off a run of at least 16 yards against Buffalo tonight. This is a matchup where I really like what the Rams have going on up front, and Williams has already shown he can consistently break runs beyond this number.
Williams has cleared this line in 3 of 4 games (75%) this season, recording longest rushes of 8, 20, 30, and 23 yards. Heās now cleared in three straight games, averaging 20.3 yards on his longest rush this season. Heās also averaging an impressive 5.44 yards per carry across 54 rushing attempts.
The biggest advantage here is the Rams offensive line. Theyāve been one of the best run-blocking units in football.
⢠1st in run-blocking line ranking
⢠2nd in yards before contact
⢠1st in stuff rate
⢠11th in explosive run blocking
That offensive line has helped Los Angeles average 5.07 yards per carry, ranking 6th in rushing success rate and 11th in rushing EPA.
Now look at Buffaloās defense. The Bills rank 28th in defensive rushing success rate and 24th in rushing EPA. Theyāre also 26th in overall defensive explosive play rate allowed. Teams have been able to sustain successful plays against this defense, and that creates opportunities for runners to get into the second level.
Another thing I like is Williamsā ability to produce regardless of the blocking scheme. Heās averaging 5.76 yards per carry on zone runs and 5.17 on gap/man concepts. Los Angeles has been effective using both, which gives them multiple ways to attack Buffaloās front.
Buffalo has actually been tougher against opposing running backsā longest rushes than some of its overall defensive numbers suggest, but I still like what weāre getting here. Williams has the offensive line, recent production, and rushing efficiency to get loose for one explosive run.
We need 16 yards on a single carry, and I like his chances of finding that opening tonight!
Best Line: -106 Novig
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LET THE ARMS DO THE TALKING! š
10/12 | BEST BET ā¾ļø
Dodgers/Brewers UNDER 7 Total Runs
#Dodgers vs #ThisIsMyCrew
Another game where Iām expecting a pitcherās duel. Yamamoto is ELITE, especially when it comes to October baseball, and Logan Henderson has been dealing all season. Both have already shown they can shut down these lineups, and I really like this matchup for another low-scoring game.
⢠Yamamoto has been ridiculous in the postseason. He owns a 2.14 ERA across 11 postseason appearances, with the Dodgers winning 10 of those games. Heās coming off 7 innings of 1-run baseball with 10 strikeouts against Atlanta. Letās not forget what he did to Milwaukee in last yearās NLCS either, throwing a complete game while allowing just 1 run on 3 hits. This is a guy I trust when the lights are brightest.
⢠Henderson deserves plenty of credit himself. He finished the regular season 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA across 18 starts. Heās faced the Dodgers twice this season, allowing just 1 earned run across 12 innings with 13 strikeouts. Thatās impressive against a lineup with this much talent. Even more impressive, Henderson hasnāt allowed more than 3 runs in any of his first 24 career starts, including the postseason. His ability to limit damage has been consistent all year.
⢠Milwaukeeās bullpen has been ridiculous, allowing just 1 earned run in 23ā
postseason innings, good for a 0.38 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting just .163 against them. They used four relievers yesterday, including Ashby for two innings, but this is a deep bullpen with multiple arms capable of shutting things down late.
⢠The Dodgersā bullpen has been solid as well, throwing three scoreless innings yesterday. Vesia, Phillips, and Scott all had relatively manageable workloads, which should give Los Angeles options behind Yamamoto if needed.
Another thing I like is what we saw offensively in Game 1. The Dodgers managed just 1 run despite collecting 7 hits, while Milwaukee scored only twice on 6 hits. Los Angeles left 9 runners on base and grounded into three double plays. Both teams had opportunities, but neither offense was able to put together a big inning.
Obviously, these are two talented lineups capable of scoring in a hurry, but I trust the pitching on both sides. Henderson has already proven he can handle this Dodgers lineup, while Yamamoto has consistently delivered in the biggest moments.
After watching these teams battle to a 2-1 finish in Game 1, Iām expecting another tightly contested matchup. With two quality starters and bullpens that have been getting the job done, I think runs will be at a premium once again.
Iāll take my chances with the UNDER 7!
Best Line: -103 @ProphetX
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OCTOBER 11th, NFL SUNDAY PICKS š
- 1U | RJ Harvey O3.5 Receptions (-135)
- 1U | Jonathan Taylor O19.5 Rushing Attempts (+111)
- 1U | Jalen Hurts O0.5 Interceptions (-117)
- 1U | Michael Wilson O24.5 Longest Reception (-138)
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HARVEY HAS BECOME A TARGET MAGNETšÆ
10/11 | NFL BEST BET #4š
RJ Harvey 4+ Receptions
#BroncosCountry
I really like what Denver has been doing with RJ Harvey in the passing game. Heās becoming a legitimate receiving option out of the backfield, and the volume heās seeing makes four receptions a number Iām comfortable backing.
Through his three games this season, Harvey has recorded 4, 6, and 10 receptions, clearing this line in all three. Heās averaging 6.7 receptions on 7 targets per game, and whatās encouraging is that his involvement has continued to grow.
The usage numbers are what really caught my attention. Harvey has run 43 of his 48 routes out of the backfield, accounting for 89.6% of his total routes. Heās also seen 21 targets, with 20 classified as catchable, and hasnāt recorded a drop. Denver is consistently giving him opportunities to make plays through the air.
Now we get a matchup against the Chargers that I think sets up nicely for him.
Los Angeles has played zone coverage on 81% of the relevant passing snaps this season, and thatās where Harvey has done most of his damage. Heās run 39 routes against zone, producing an impressive 3.33 yards per route run. Compare that to just 0.25 against man coverage, and itās pretty clear which coverage heās been more productive against.
Another thing I like is how involved Harvey remains when Denver is playing from behind. When trailing by 7 or more points, heās drawn 10 targets, accounting for a 21% target share, while running routes on 49% of team dropbacks. Even in obvious passing situations, Denver has continued to involve him.
Harvey has also commanded a 35% target share on first and ten, showing that his receiving opportunities arenāt limited to obvious passing downs. Heās getting involved throughout the game, which is exactly what I want when backing a receptions prop.
Everything here comes back to consistent volume, his effectiveness against zone, and an offensive role that has already produced three straight games with at least four catches. I expect Denver to continue putting the ball in Harveyās hands, especially against a defense that plays as much zone as the Chargers.
Best Line: -135 Novig
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THE OFFENSE RUNS THROUGH 28 š
10/11 | BEST BET #3 š
Jonathan Taylor O19.5 Rushing Attempts
#ForTheShoe
Jonathan Taylor has been one of the NFLās true workhorse running backs for years, and that hasnāt changed this season. Indianapolis has consistently leaned on him to carry the rushing workload, and weāre seeing that same commitment through four games. Heās averaging 21.5 rushing attempts per game, and with another competitive matchup against Pittsburgh, I expect the Colts to continue feeding him the football.
Through four games, Taylor is averaging 21.5 rushing attempts per game, clearing this line in 3 of 4 games with 19, 24, 23, and 20 carries. Even his only miss came by just one attempt. Heās now seen at least 20 carries in three straight games, and I donāt see much reason for Indianapolis to suddenly move away from that workload.
What I really like is how involved Taylor remains regardless of the situation. Heās handled 85% of the Coltsā designed carries on 1st & 10, 88% in medium-yardage situations, and even 90% when Indianapolis has been trailing by 7 or more. That tells me his workload isnāt completely dependent on the Colts playing with a lead.
Now we get Pittsburgh, a defense that ranks 29th against the RB position this season. The Steelers rank 14th in rushing attempts allowed, so this isnāt necessarily a matchup where teams are automatically getting 25+ carries against them. But there are opportunities here, especially if Indianapolis can keep this game competitive.
Pittsburgh has been playing with a stacked box on 36% of defensive rushing snaps, while using seven defenders in the box another 43% of the time. Theyāre capable of making things difficult on the ground, but thatās exactly why Iām targeting Taylorās attempts rather than his rushing yards. Even if heās only picking up 3 or 4 yards a carry, Indianapolis can continue putting the ball in his hands.
The Steelers are only 2.5-point favorites, which gives us a relatively tight projected matchup. Thereās also some rain in the forecast, which could give Indianapolis another reason to lean on its running game.
At the end of the day, weāre backing a running back averaging 21.5 carries who has hit this number in three straight games. I donāt need Taylor to dominate Pittsburgh. I just need the Colts to continue trusting their best offensive weapon.
Best Line: +113 ProphetX
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JACKSONVILLEāS BEEN TAKING THE BALL AWAY š
10/11 | NFL BEST BET #2 š
Jalen Hurts O0.5 Interceptions Thrown
#FlyEaglesFly
Jacksonville has been making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks, and I think Hurts could be the next one to give them the football.
Through four games, the Jaguars have forced at least one interception from EVERY quarterback theyāve faced. Burrow and Maye threw two apiece, while Nix and Watson each threw one. Thatās six interceptions in four games, and a perfect 4/4 hit rate on this line.
Hurts hasnāt exactly been taking care of the football himself. Heās thrown three interceptions through four games, clearing this line in 2/4 while averaging 0.8 per game.
What really caught my attention is how much his passing numbers change when things arenāt going smoothly. Hurts has a 99.9 passer rating from a clean pocket, but that drops to 66.7 under pressure, where heās averaging just 3.88 yards per attempt.
The turnover-worthy plays are another concern. Hurts has a 3.6% TWP rate overall, but that jumps to 5.77% against the blitz and 4.94% against zone coverage. Against two-high safety looks, that number climbs to 7.14%.
Weāre heading to London for this matchup, and I donāt need Hurts to have a terrible game. One poor decision, a forced throw, or a defender making a play on the football is all weāre looking for.
Jacksonville has already gotten to four straight quarterbacks. Iām betting that streak continues.
Best Line: -117 Novig
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Daijon retweeted
HE DOMINATES THIS WEEK ā¼ļø
Michael Wilson O24.5 Longest Reception
#RiseUpRedSea vs #OnePride
w/ @DaijonBets š²
Detroitās secondary has been Swiss cheese this season, and weāre looking for Michael Wilson to take advantage of it. The Lions have allowed 9 of 12 receivers to clear their longest reception lines this season. Itās been a favorable matchup for opposing WRs, and Wilson has the opportunity to make one big play here.
Wilson has been heavily involved in Arizonaās offense. Heās playing 91.3% of the snaps, running routes on 93.9% of passing plays, and commanding a 27% target share. What I really like is his 45% air yard share through four games. Heās getting opportunities downfield, which is exactly what we need for this number.
The coverage matchup is where things get interesting. Detroit runs zone 77% of the time, single-high coverage 54%, and Cover 3 at a 42% rate.
Wilson has been effective against those looks:
⢠Single-High: 2.56 yards per route run, 0.88 above league average.
⢠Cover 3: 2.42 yards per route run, 0.66 above league average.
These are two of Detroitās most frequently used coverages, and both have been favorable for Wilson.
Now, Wilson is 0/4 on this line this season, with longest receptions of 17, 9, 18, and 24 yards. Obviously not the hit rate weāre looking for, but thatās why Iām attacking the matchup rather than his recent results. He came just one yard short last week.
Detroit has struggled to prevent opposing receivers from making explosive plays, and Wilson has the downfield involvement to capitalize. We only need one reception of 25+ yards, and I like his chances of finally getting there in this matchup.
Best Odds: -126 DK
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MY FAVORITE UNDER THIS WEEK š
49ers/Seahawks U46.5 Total Points
#FTTB vs #Seahawks
w/ @ChronicBets š²
(Going for 6 STRAIGHT Wās)
This is an ELITE defensive matchup for both teams!! Seattle has allowed the FEWEST yards in the entire NFL at just 246.8 per game while giving up only 18.3 PPG. We understand this 4-0 San Francisco offense has looked outstanding through four weeks, but the defensive units theyāve faced simply arenāt on the same level as Seattle. Theyāve already shown they can make life MISERABLE for Shanahanās offense, holding SF to a combined NINE points over their last two meetings.
Both defenses also rank inside the TOP THREE at limiting explosive plays. San Francisco currently ranks 1st with only a 2.7% explosive-play rate allowed while Seattle sits 3rd at 4.9%. That is MASSIVE for an under like this because neither offense should be able to rely on easy chunk plays. Theyāre going to have to consistently put together quality drives against two defenses that simply havenāt been giving those plays away.
San Francisco also wonāt be coming into Seattle at full strength. Kyle Juszczyk is expected to miss time with his knee injury while Mike Evans continues to deal with the rib injury that kept him out of Thursdayās practice. Against most defenses Iād be less concerned, but traveling into Seattle against THIS unit is not the case.
The history between these teams screams UNDER as well. 7/L10 matchups have finished below this 46.5 number and those 10 games have averaged 41 combined points.
What makes me love this even MORE is that Iām not completely sold on Seattle consistently doing its part offensively either. Their run game hasnāt provided the same type of balance, with lead back Emanuel Wilson averaging just 3.6 YPC through four games.
Two elite defenses with almost no explosive plays allowed and a recent history that HEAVILY favors low-scoring football! Give us the under here all day
Best Odds: -104 NOVIG
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DETROITāS SECONDARY IS SWISS CHEESE š§
10/11 | NFL BEST BET #1 š
Michael Wilson O24.5 Longest Reception
#RiseUpRedSea
Collab w/@FrannysPlays š¤
Detroitās secondary has been Swiss cheese this season, and weāre looking for Michael Wilson to take advantage of it. The Lions have allowed 9 of 12 receivers to clear their longest reception lines this season. Itās been a favorable matchup for opposing WRs, and Wilson has the opportunity to make one big play here.
Wilson has been heavily involved in Arizonaās offense. Heās playing 91.3% of the snaps, running routes on 93.9% of passing plays, and commanding a 27% target share. What I really like is his 45% air yard share through four games. Heās getting opportunities downfield, which is exactly what we need for this number.
The coverage matchup is where things get interesting. Detroit runs zone 77% of the time, single-high coverage 54%, and Cover 3 at a 42% rate.
Wilson has been effective against those looks:
⢠Single-High: 2.56 yards per route run, 0.88 above league average.
⢠Cover 3: 2.42 yards per route run, 0.66 above league average.
These are two of Detroitās most frequently used coverages, and both have been favorable for Wilson.
Now, Wilson is 0/4 on this line this season, with longest receptions of 17, 9, 18, and 24 yards. Obviously not the hit rate weāre looking for, but thatās why Iām attacking the matchup rather than his recent results. He came just one yard short last week.
Detroit has struggled to prevent opposing receivers from making explosive plays, and Wilson has the downfield involvement to capitalize. We only need one reception of 25+ yards, and I like his chances of finally getting there in this matchup.
Best Line: -120 Hard Rock
But if you have sportsbook limitations like I have in Cali, @ProphetX has -139.
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10/8 | TNF RECAP š
2-1 | +0.93u š
ā
Bucky Irving O13.5 Rush Attempts (+104)
ā
George Pickens O23.5 Longest Reception (-113)
ā Jayden Daniels O44.5 Rush Yards (-113)
TAKING THE PROFITš¤
Not a sweep, but weāll take the positive night and keep building. Back in the lab for the next slate!
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OCTOBER 8th, TNF CARD š
- 1U | George Pickens O23.5 Longest Reception (-113)
- 1U | Bucky Irving 14+ Rushing Attempts (+104)
- 1U | Jalon Daniels 45+ Rushing Yards (-113)
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