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It is THE metric, it has already dropped due to people dying (younger than they should have) during the acute phase.. But when people will realise it keeps dropping despite big wave of infection and death being over, it will remind us how the world was wrong to take Covid lightly
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
🚨"There's too much signal now to keep operating without prevention."
➡️A final sentence to an excellent 🧵again, underscoring your need to read this warning.....!👏👇
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
It’s getting surreal.
A mathematician on X announced a solution to one of the most beautiful and elegant problems in mathematics. I’ll keep him anonymous. You’ll see why in a moment.
Is ℤ Diophantine in ℚ? In other words, can a single polynomial equation pick out exactly the integers among the rational numbers?
Equations like these go back to the ancient Greeks. This particular question has been open for decades. There are good reasons to expect the answer to be no. Surprisingly, the proposed answer is yes.
So, what’s the problem?
The problem is that the author candidly says in the post “I don’t have the expertise to understand this solution”, but he posts it anyway as he has “high confidence” on it.
The proof doesn’t even have the formal Lean verification.
This is literally an AI generated proof that looks plausible, but nobody has actually verified.
This is exactly what we call Epistemia. The argument looks plausible, and plausibility takes the place of verification.
Until recently, a mathematician would be embarrassed to announce a proof he couldn’t understand.
Now it risks becoming the norm.
I think this is partly due to short term incentives.
Announcements like this get you thousands of followers and interviews with journalists. (Now you know why I’m keeping him anonymous.)
Epistemia is already a big issue.
It’s a tragedy that short-term incentives - Andy Warhol’s 15 minutes of fame - are pushing people to become even more sick.
*
In the first comment, you’ll find our epistemological fault lines paper, where we discuss Epistemia at length. I think it’s useful to understand what’s happening.
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
The change in the NHS Staff Sickness Absence Rate since the start of the pandemic is actually bonkers.
But the bonkers thing isn’t that it’s happening - it’s entirely predictable when you understand the science.
The bonkers thing is that they’re not doing a thing to prevent it!
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
📈 Le pic épidémique de #Covid19 n'est pas du tout passé : circulation virale dans les eaux usées toujours en forte hausse, dépassant même désormais le pic de l'an dernier à la même période.
Cette hausse est toujours très marquée dans chaque région.
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
The WHO is still advising coughing into your sleeve & washing your hands to prevent airborne virus transmission. No mention of respirator masks 😷
We all have a role to play in protecting ourselves and our loved ones from #influenza and #COVID19
By taking action, you can shield yourself and your community from severe influenza and COVID-19 infections bit.ly/4iBdkbD
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
1. The bottom line: SARS-CoV-2 only emerged in late 2019. No-one can know the long-term effects of repeated infections, but with anosmia and cognitive dysfunction as common symptoms, the assumption I make is that there is a tsunami of early-onset neurocognitive diseases coming.
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
Hi Leo 👋🏻, I live in the UK & take precautions to avoid catching COVID.
I’ve read the research about the long-term harms of repeated COVID infections - none of it is good.
For me, it’s therefore worth the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask in public spaces to reduce my risk.
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Dr.xvi79 retweeted
Normally @UKHSA when the graph exceeds the top of the axis, you increase the axis.
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
An unseen tsunami.
In German insurance claims data, people with a coded post-COVID diagnosis had on average 26.5 more sick-leave days in the first year (46 vs 20) and 6.9 more outpatient doctor visits than comparable people after COVID without that diagnosis🧵
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
Yeah the problem is definitely him & his work-life balance & not that vascular virus that’s surging globally at the moment.
Vincent Kompany collapsed on Friday afternoon, where concerns about Kompany's work-life balance had existed internally for weeks. Squad and staff repeatedly raised that he sleeps too little, hardly exercises himself, eats too much and irregularly, drinks a lot of coffee, and takes on too heavy a workload. Some at Bayern now link his health problems to these factors. [@BILD]
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
No mention of Covid in your headline? That’s what disabled this lady. We are also in a UK Covid wave, many will join her in the coming weeks/months. Maybe report on it.
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
Does COVID-19 Vaccination Protect Against Post-COVID Cardiovascular Conditions?
🚨COVID vaccines don’t just stop severe infection, they appear to cut the risk of post-COVID heart damage (heart failure, arrhythmias, MI) by up to 65% in observational data. Four of nine Bradford Hill criteria for causality are met. Full immunisation + avoiding reinfection are your cornerstones!
➡️This interesting qualitative Brazilian review evaluates whether COVID-19 vaccination causally reduces the risk of post-COVID cardiovascular conditions (e.g., myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmias as part of post-COVID condition/PCC).
➡️Using Bradford Hill criteria (BHC) and the sufficient-component cause (SCC) model, the authors synthesised literature from 2020–2025 (10 studies, including cohorts and meta-analyses).
➡️Results:
→Vaccination met four of nine BHC as a protective factor:
- Strength of association (e.g, U.S. data: RR 0.49 at 28 days and 0.35 at 90 days for post-COVID heart disease, Hong Kong: up to 66% reduction with three doses),
- Consistency (across U.S., China, Argentina cohorts of ~1 million people),
- Temporality, and
- Biological gradient (greater protection with more doses or more recent vaccination),
- Plausibility, coherence, and analogy were partially met (via reduced viral load, lower inflammation, and parallels with influenza vaccine),
- Specificity and experimental evidence (no dedicated RCTs on post-COVID CV outcomes) were not met,
➡️The SCC model positions vaccination as a preventive component that can interrupt pathways starting from prior infection,
➡️Reinfection remains a risk factor even in vaccinated individuals,
➡️Overall, vaccination’s benefits extend beyond the acute phase to lower post-COVID cardiovascular morbidity.
‼️So, COVID-19 vaccination meets key epidemiological criteria as a causal protective factor that reduces the risk of post-COVID cardiovascular conditions, making complete immunisation and reinfection prevention essential to cut long-term morbidity.
‼️This further supports practical decisions: staying up to date with COVID vaccination can lower not only acute severe disease but also longer-term cardiovascular complications after infection. It reinforces the value of layered prevention (vaccination + measures to reduce reinfection risk) for people WITH or WITHOUT preexisting heart conditions, as post-COVID CV issues contribute to ongoing morbidity and mortality.
Quote: “Comprehensive immunisation strategies and reinfection prevention are essential to mitigate the burden of post-COVID conditions”
#AvoidSars2 #AvoidReinfections #VaccineUpdates
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
How on earth did I miss this article earlier this year?
Hospitals absolutely riddled with airborne Covid.
Not surprised to see the tea room is bad.
Also they missed a trick not testing stair wells.
CO₂ levels there are often filthy.
resmedjournal.com/article/S0…
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
🔥Peer-reviewed research (NEJM, Nature, etc.) shows COVID causes measurable IQ drops (3–9 points), accelerates Alzheimer’s pathology, and stacks organ damage with every reinfection.
Read the 🧵. Then repost it. Most people still treat this like a seasonal cold. The data clearly says otherwise!! #IWarnedYou
#AvoidSars2 #AvoidReinfections
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
Two questions:
1. Why don’t you show COVID in your first tweet, given that’s by far the biggest threat right now?
2. When you look at the high numbers of people being hospitalised with COVID, do you feel any pangs of remorse for your highly restrictive COVID vaccine policy ⬇️?
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
Large upload from Ontario yesterday, providing striking revelations about the evolution of PJ.2.1.
First, there is yet another hugely divergent branch of PJ.2.
This isn't one variant: it's four.
More & more, this resembles the emergence of BA.1/2/3. What is happening? 1/11
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
🇮🇪 Just as the current Covid wave ramps up, when decent surveillance data is more important than ever…
…that’s the precise moment that Ireland decides to hit the ‘temporary pause’ button on publication of their wastewater surveillance reports 🙄
hpsc.ie/p/nationalwastewater…
Dr.xvi79 retweeted
I’d been wondering when mainstream media would finally start warning about the major COVID wave we’re currently in.
Whether we’d just keep seeing alerts about hospitals buckling under the pressure, without any mention of the underlying cause?
Just keep calm & carry on…
