Hold, trade, enjoy & get rekt since 2017. I write about things that make me curious.
Planet Earth
Joined April 2017
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Fowler ⚙️ retweeted
Translation if you don't speak Korean:
LEE HYOUNG-IL, SOUTH KOREA’S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF FINANCE AND ECONOMY: WE ARE PREPARING TO DEPLOY MARKET STABILIZATION MEASURES IF STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY INCREASES.
WE WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO IMPLEMENT SPECIFIC MEASURES, SUCH AS ACTIVATING THE STOCK MARKET STABILIZATION FUND OR TEMPORARILY BANNING SHORT SELLING, BASED ON MARKET CONDITIONS.
Fowler ⚙️ retweeted
I’ve spent a few days thinking about the Tesla Roadster reveal and landed somewhere I haven’t seen much discussion. I’m neither a Tesla fanboy nor a Tesla hater. And I couldn’t care less whether what we saw technically qualifies as a flying car. Three takeaways: (1) The risk of that live demonstration going horribly wrong was real. Almost no CEO would willingly expose their company to that kind of public humiliation for a product with so little financial upside. Elon did. (2) That willingness to attempt the seemingly impossible is what makes Tesla special. It’s also arguably Elon’s greatest contribution to America. He’s helped bring back something we’ve lost. The American spirit of chasing big scary ideas that most people think are impossible. That mindset is spreading across a new generation of founders and its long term impact on America’s future could dwarf anything Tesla ever sells. I think this is deeply underappreciated. (3) Can we just acknowledge how insanely cool that moment was? We’ve reached a strange place culturally where even extraordinary feats of human ingenuity immediately become arguments about why they don’t count. Not everything needs to be a debate. Sometimes we should just be able to stand back together and marvel at what humans are capable of. I’ve been both bullish and critical of Tesla’s ambitions over the years. But watching Elon and his team push the boundaries of what’s possible reminds me why I’m glad we have him. Whether the Roadster ever makes Tesla a dollar or impacts $TSLA stock price is almost beside the point. We need more people willing to risk failure in pursuit of things the rest of us think are impossible. Because when they succeed we all win.
Fowler ⚙️ retweeted
50% probability of making $2000 and 50% probability of losing $1000.
Following the breakout, possibility of reducing the $ loss to $500 by raising initial stop.
Think about that.
and stop with the nonsense of yeah but its 50/50.
Fowler ⚙️ retweeted
Newbies and inexperienced traders/investors are so fixated on predictions that they have no idea what to do when the 50% of cases where they're wrong shows up.
“But you said it was going to do #A and it didn’t.”
Well yeah. I also said it could do #B, and sometimes #C. Didn’t you plan or position for those outcomes too?
Bitcoin recently is a good example. It didn’t follow through on my preferred path, which is just the one I thought was more likely. But so what? I still bought back a good amount at $64k after going 100% cash at $94k (avg), because guess what, option #B possibility was gaining traction.
That’s the point. It’s not about the prediction. Your social clout does not build your portfolio.
Sadly, most inexperienced players can’t even make money when their prediction comes true because they’re so consumed with being right that they never properly think about positioning, risk, or what they’ll do next.
“Oh, so you’re just covering every base. Could go up, could go down.”
No shit. That’s exactly the point.
I don’t want to be surprised. I want to be positioned to get the best possible outcome across all viable scenarios.
Stop becoming so attached to one idea that you get trapped inside it. Think and trade in possibilities, be early enough and push harder when an outcome becomes clear.
Yes, you’ll give up some upside to maintain that flexibility. That’s the cost. But you’ll still participate when you’re right and you’ll be protected when the market chooses one of the other paths.
The goal isn’t to predict but be prepared to capture.
Fowler ⚙️ retweeted
🚨GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN FORECAST HITS 50 DAYS
The federal government shutdown has stretched to 39 days, with markets now forecasting it could last around 50 days, according to Kalshi data.
The Senate is holding a rare Sunday session at 1:30 p.m. but no votes are currently scheduled
kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshut…
1/ ALERT🚨: If you think to deposit into @stable
Phase 2 via @hourglasshq? With $500M cap opening TODAY, YOU HAVE TO KNOW THIS. No named custodian, key management OUT OF SCOPE in the audit. @zellic_io
8/ Don't forget Phase 1 mess: Filled with insiders, now they get ~70% of rewards vs. Phase 2's 29%. Each Phase 1 dollar earns 1.5x more yield. Check this post by @DidiTrading eating first? xitter.cf/DidiTrading/status/198…
9/ Bottom line: Solid on-chain audit for vault logic, but off-chain custody black box. And no comments from both teams when questions are asked @stable @hourglasshq
