Former Research Analyst for a VC | Crypto since '21 | Alpha Channel π https://xitter.cf/t.co/lcWgGa421B | Working w/ @GREEND0TS
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18x on solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx btw π«‘
Gm,
I'm buying more $STONK.
Right now it's at $7M Mcap, and I think we'll have a run back to ATH ($14M Mcap) easily.
I've been in since ~$3M Mcap.
So of course it's easier for me to buy more here.
I still expect (at least) a 2x from here. β
β¦ Thesis:
StonkFun is a launchpad on Solana.
And while Solana definitely doesn't need another generic memecoin launchpad, Stonk is very different from that.
The idea is simple:
β Launch coins paired with basically anything.
β’ Stocks, commodities, currencies, memes, pre-IPO assets, leveraged assets, etc.
The metrics are already good:
β ~$300M total volume
β $106M+ RWA volume
β $700k+ revenue
β Nearly $500k used for $STONK buybacks/burns
And there is an ecosystem flywheel.
Fees generated by the platform support $STONK, while the platform also buys & burns tokens among its top ecosystem coins.
More volume β more fees β more buybacks β stronger ecosystem.
They're also integrating with more trading platforms and adding new RWAs as they become available on Solana.
Even the Solana account on X acknowledged Stonk, replying to one of their posts.
π x.com/solana/status/20902052β¦
The product keeps improving, more integrations are coming, and the team is trying something genuinely new instead of launching another Pump clone.
There are also already some actual runners coming out of the ecosystem.
The biggest one right now is $MANLET, paired with ANSEM, sitting around a $2M market cap.
$BUTTHOLE, paired with Anthropic, is also making a comeback to $1.8M Mcap.
I'm in $TREE, currently ~$130k Mcap. This one is quite interesting but of course high risk.
And I'm also in $GTA6, but got in at ~$1M and sold most of it around $2.2M. It's now down quite a bit. I'm not sure yet I'll be getting back in. Also high risk.
There are interesting pairings around all kinds of things: assets, memes, video games, companies, people, etc.
As mentioned before you already have markets tied to GTA6, Apple, Anthropic, silver, Ansem and more.
It's why it's interesting, it's creating markets around existing narratives, people, companies and assets.
Lots of possibilities.
Shiro retweeted
β¦ Market Update:
I'm still bullish on Crypto for Q4.
Even after the Ledger situation.
In the quoted post, I explained why I was bullish despite the bad news:
One of the main reasons was how the market reacted to it.
BTC is holding well. β
---
During the bearish period, every bad headline seemed to push BTC lower.
But the few positive headlines didn't push BTC higher.
Lately, the market has been reacting much better to news.
Even after the very bad news in the hardware wallets space.
β¦ What happened with Ledger?
Users had their wallets drained, with Ledger confirming an unauthorized hardware implant in an affected device.
β’ Oct 9: Ledger investigates after users in Southeast Asia report lost funds
β’ Ledger confirmed a covert implant inside at least one device sold by the reseller CryptoBilis (one of its official resellers)
β’ When the 24-word recovery phrase is displayed during setup, the implant reads it and sends it out through an eSIM
β’ Ledger says the Secure Element, the OS and the transactions are untouched, and calls it a physical supply-chain attack
β’ Bitquery's latest estimate puts losses at around $102M across 324 wallets. Ledger hasn't confirmed any total
β’ Tether froze $10M in USDT tied to the theft
Latest:
β Ledger says every confirmed loss involves a CryptoBilis device so far
β MediaMarkt Saturn stopped selling Ledger devices after a corrupted signer was reported in Germany
β Mark KarpelΓ¨s claims he found an implant in a Ledger Flex bought at Singapore Airport. Not confirmed by Ledger
β Oct 13: Ledger is reviewing its reseller controls and anti-tamper protections, and its device sales policies
For people already hesitant about crypto, this could be the final hit to their trust.
After FTX scam, and a few other scammy exchanges, the trust in CEX was almost over.
So the advice was to store crypto using a hardware wallet, often presented as the safest option.
Now we hear hundreds of people getting drained, despite using the "safest option", while having a hot wallet is even riskier.
So this is indeed very bad news for trust in crypto.
---
β¦ Why I'm still bullish
The list of bad news keeps growing:
β’ Clarity Act failed to pass
β’ Fed hiked rates
β’ $387M Bitget hack
β’ Now Ledger
Yet, BTC keeps holding the $81k zone.
Spot demand is back every time it dips.
The trend is still continuing:
β’ 4 weekly closes in a row above the 50-week MA
β’ BTC at ~$83k, 50-week MA at ~$76.6k
We've just had a small pullback since my last post.
Today, $BTC briefly fell below $81k before recovering above $83k. That recovery also happened while Korean stocks sold off hard and Nasdaq futures were down.
So yeah, the market is feeling the pressure.
But so far, I don't see a reason to flip bearish.
The Ledger incident could easily feed another wave of fear around crypto and self-custody.
Seeing BTC hold in the 80ks despite that keeps me bullish.
My read is that sellers are having a harder time pushing the market down, even when the headlines give them a reason to.
We'll still need to reclaim the $87k area where BTC got rejected earlier this month.
Until then, there will probably be more chop, and I'm keeping some cash ready.
But my thesis hasn't changed.
If the market keeps absorbing bad news like this, I'm interested in seeing what happens when we finally get a strong positive catalyst.
Still bullish. Still keeping an eye on how the market reacts.
NFA & DYOR! π«‘
Crypto is hot again!
$BTC broke $85k, for the first time since January.
$ETH is back around $2,700.
Most large caps are following too.
Is it going to continue?
Here is my take β
This growth is happening even though there has been bad news recently.
The kind of bad news that usually pushes the crypto market down.
The environment is uncertain, but BTC stays strong.
People are flipping.
Even those we heard waiting for BTC at $50k are now calling a bottom.
---
β¦ What's the news?
β’ Sept 15: The Clarity Act did not pass.
This is the bill meant to turn the rules that frame and clarify crypto into law, something more definitive and therefore harder to undo for the next US administration.
It was a highly anticipated law that could boost the crypto market.
With the midterms on Nov 3, there are only ~20 legislative days left this year, all of them after the elections.
It's going to be hard (if not impossible) to get it passed before the end of 2026.
Despite that, $BTC remained strong.
Well, it still printed its September low that day, around $74.9k.
But six days later it was above $85k again.
β’ Sept 16: The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 (+25 bps, to 3.75%-4.00%).
It didn't really move crypto markets either.
Usually that's bad for every risk asset, and crypto dumps hard on this kind of announcement.
When rates go up, investors can earn yield on their capital without taking much risk, which reduces the usage of crypto in general.
β’ The recent $387M Bitget hack, which once again hurts trust in crypto and its major players.
β’ The macro context as a whole is still uncertain, with pressure in the Strait of Hormuz and the oil price going up.
---
We're coming out of a long bearish period, with long liquidations one after another, where BTC followed tech stocks only on the way down and not really on the way up.
BTC used to react badly to every piece of bad news, but didn't react positively to the good news.
We could have expected the Clarity Act news to be catastrophic for crypto price action, and yet the market recovered quickly.
Same for the hack, and the rates.
In short, everything that used to push Bitcoin down and everything that amplified fear around risk assets doesn't seem to move the crypto market lately.
Bitcoin is holding well and has even gained value.
Meanwhile, those who saw crypto dead until 2027 are flipping, news sites talk about the end of the bear market, and institutions are turning bullish again.
---
β¦ The Bullish Facts
- $BTC tapped $85k on Sept 21, for the first time since January
- Weekly close back above the 50-week moving average (week of Sept 20), after 45 weeks below it.
Per Galaxy, this happened 13 times since 2011. 11 times out of 13, the market didn't make a new low afterward
- K33, Galaxy, Tom Lee (BitMine chairman), and many more have all made the case that the bottom is in.
- Money is coming back into the ETFs: almost $1B of inflows on Sept 21, the biggest day in 11 months, and $2.65B over September
- Shorts got wiped: ~$648M liquidated in 24h on Sept 21
- Hype and euphoria are back. More activity on social media, some inactive accounts returning, accounts that had pivoted to AI coming back to talk about crypto, etc.
- More launches, more projects, more volume, new chains, new narratives, new trends, etc.
- Many large caps doing 2x on the monthly
- The (shy) return of airdrops
---
β¦ But where is retail?
For now there's no retail euphoria like in 2021.
Coinbase is still far from the top of the App Store, while it used to get close to #1 during bull markets.
But that doesn't really surprise me.
At some point, most people interested in crypto have already downloaded and used the Coinbase app, there are also many apps now, including ones built directly into finance and banking apps, and it's no longer just 2-3 exchanges like Coinbase that are worth using these days.
All the more so because exchanges have heavy KYC requirements nowadays.
As for the euphoria around Bitcoin, the price is still in a range that doesn't attract retail, between $50k and $120k, which are prices close to $100k, the milestone that used to attract retail.
But the big news of BTC breaking $100k already happened almost 2 years ago. So for retail, BTC being back at 85k is not fresh, not interesting.
It was easier to sell a "buy Bitcoin, get rich" narrative when the token went from $300 to $30,000 than when it goes from $60k to $100k.
The $150k and $200k milestones should attract retail again, but in the meantime most people feel like BTC is stagnating and has been "around $100k" for years.
Also people are more interested in AI than Crypto, which makes sense.
---
β¦ What to watch?
$BTC got rejected at $87k on Oct 2, with $433M liquidated, mostly longs.
Of course, it's not a straight line.
So are we staying in an uptrend?
There are a few dates to watch.
- Today, Oct 4, we could have the third weekly close in a row above the 50-week MA
- Oct 14: US inflation (CPI)
- Oct 27-28: Fed decision
- Nov 9: Congress is back after the midterms
The Clarity Act: Polymarket traders give it about a 5% chance of becoming law before the end of the year.
The Oct 2 jobs report came in weak (29k jobs vs ~85k expected), and the odds of an October hike dropped from ~70% to ~20% in a week.
A December hike is still priced around 70%.
$BTC didn't flinch on the first hike. Will that still be true if rates keep going up?
We'll have to see how the market reacts, especially crypto compared to the US market.
If crypto keeps going its own way when the macro news gets worse, those numbers will matter less and less, and we can start talking about a decorrelation phase.
In any case, for now the market thinks there will be more rate hikes, that the Clarity Act won't be adopted in 2026, and despite that crypto is doing well.
It may only take one piece of good news for BTC to explode.
In the meantime, the SEC has still been proposing regulations lately to frame the market, giving more clarity and visibility to various crypto companies, especially for tokenization.
On Sept 17 it issued an innovation exemption letting venues trade tokenized US stocks.
That builds confidence among institutions and big investors.
As things stand now, I'm definitely bullish π«‘
β¦ Market Update:
I'm still bullish on Crypto for Q4.
Even after the Ledger situation.
In the quoted post, I explained why I was bullish despite the bad news:
One of the main reasons was how the market reacted to it.
BTC is holding well. β
---
During the bearish period, every bad headline seemed to push BTC lower.
But the few positive headlines didn't push BTC higher.
Lately, the market has been reacting much better to news.
Even after the very bad news in the hardware wallets space.
β¦ What happened with Ledger?
Users had their wallets drained, with Ledger confirming an unauthorized hardware implant in an affected device.
β’ Oct 9: Ledger investigates after users in Southeast Asia report lost funds
β’ Ledger confirmed a covert implant inside at least one device sold by the reseller CryptoBilis (one of its official resellers)
β’ When the 24-word recovery phrase is displayed during setup, the implant reads it and sends it out through an eSIM
β’ Ledger says the Secure Element, the OS and the transactions are untouched, and calls it a physical supply-chain attack
β’ Bitquery's latest estimate puts losses at around $102M across 324 wallets. Ledger hasn't confirmed any total
β’ Tether froze $10M in USDT tied to the theft
Latest:
β Ledger says every confirmed loss involves a CryptoBilis device so far
β MediaMarkt Saturn stopped selling Ledger devices after a corrupted signer was reported in Germany
β Mark KarpelΓ¨s claims he found an implant in a Ledger Flex bought at Singapore Airport. Not confirmed by Ledger
β Oct 13: Ledger is reviewing its reseller controls and anti-tamper protections, and its device sales policies
For people already hesitant about crypto, this could be the final hit to their trust.
After FTX scam, and a few other scammy exchanges, the trust in CEX was almost over.
So the advice was to store crypto using a hardware wallet, often presented as the safest option.
Now we hear hundreds of people getting drained, despite using the "safest option", while having a hot wallet is even riskier.
So this is indeed very bad news for trust in crypto.
---
β¦ Why I'm still bullish
The list of bad news keeps growing:
β’ Clarity Act failed to pass
β’ Fed hiked rates
β’ $387M Bitget hack
β’ Now Ledger
Yet, BTC keeps holding the $81k zone.
Spot demand is back every time it dips.
The trend is still continuing:
β’ 4 weekly closes in a row above the 50-week MA
β’ BTC at ~$83k, 50-week MA at ~$76.6k
We've just had a small pullback since my last post.
Today, $BTC briefly fell below $81k before recovering above $83k. That recovery also happened while Korean stocks sold off hard and Nasdaq futures were down.
So yeah, the market is feeling the pressure.
But so far, I don't see a reason to flip bearish.
The Ledger incident could easily feed another wave of fear around crypto and self-custody.
Seeing BTC hold in the 80ks despite that keeps me bullish.
My read is that sellers are having a harder time pushing the market down, even when the headlines give them a reason to.
We'll still need to reclaim the $87k area where BTC got rejected earlier this month.
Until then, there will probably be more chop, and I'm keeping some cash ready.
But my thesis hasn't changed.
If the market keeps absorbing bad news like this, I'm interested in seeing what happens when we finally get a strong positive catalyst.
Still bullish. Still keeping an eye on how the market reacts.
NFA & DYOR! π«‘
Crypto is hot again!
$BTC broke $85k, for the first time since January.
$ETH is back around $2,700.
Most large caps are following too.
Is it going to continue?
Here is my take β
This growth is happening even though there has been bad news recently.
The kind of bad news that usually pushes the crypto market down.
The environment is uncertain, but BTC stays strong.
People are flipping.
Even those we heard waiting for BTC at $50k are now calling a bottom.
---
β¦ What's the news?
β’ Sept 15: The Clarity Act did not pass.
This is the bill meant to turn the rules that frame and clarify crypto into law, something more definitive and therefore harder to undo for the next US administration.
It was a highly anticipated law that could boost the crypto market.
With the midterms on Nov 3, there are only ~20 legislative days left this year, all of them after the elections.
It's going to be hard (if not impossible) to get it passed before the end of 2026.
Despite that, $BTC remained strong.
Well, it still printed its September low that day, around $74.9k.
But six days later it was above $85k again.
β’ Sept 16: The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 (+25 bps, to 3.75%-4.00%).
It didn't really move crypto markets either.
Usually that's bad for every risk asset, and crypto dumps hard on this kind of announcement.
When rates go up, investors can earn yield on their capital without taking much risk, which reduces the usage of crypto in general.
β’ The recent $387M Bitget hack, which once again hurts trust in crypto and its major players.
β’ The macro context as a whole is still uncertain, with pressure in the Strait of Hormuz and the oil price going up.
---
We're coming out of a long bearish period, with long liquidations one after another, where BTC followed tech stocks only on the way down and not really on the way up.
BTC used to react badly to every piece of bad news, but didn't react positively to the good news.
We could have expected the Clarity Act news to be catastrophic for crypto price action, and yet the market recovered quickly.
Same for the hack, and the rates.
In short, everything that used to push Bitcoin down and everything that amplified fear around risk assets doesn't seem to move the crypto market lately.
Bitcoin is holding well and has even gained value.
Meanwhile, those who saw crypto dead until 2027 are flipping, news sites talk about the end of the bear market, and institutions are turning bullish again.
---
β¦ The Bullish Facts
- $BTC tapped $85k on Sept 21, for the first time since January
- Weekly close back above the 50-week moving average (week of Sept 20), after 45 weeks below it.
Per Galaxy, this happened 13 times since 2011. 11 times out of 13, the market didn't make a new low afterward
- K33, Galaxy, Tom Lee (BitMine chairman), and many more have all made the case that the bottom is in.
- Money is coming back into the ETFs: almost $1B of inflows on Sept 21, the biggest day in 11 months, and $2.65B over September
- Shorts got wiped: ~$648M liquidated in 24h on Sept 21
- Hype and euphoria are back. More activity on social media, some inactive accounts returning, accounts that had pivoted to AI coming back to talk about crypto, etc.
- More launches, more projects, more volume, new chains, new narratives, new trends, etc.
- Many large caps doing 2x on the monthly
- The (shy) return of airdrops
---
β¦ But where is retail?
For now there's no retail euphoria like in 2021.
Coinbase is still far from the top of the App Store, while it used to get close to #1 during bull markets.
But that doesn't really surprise me.
At some point, most people interested in crypto have already downloaded and used the Coinbase app, there are also many apps now, including ones built directly into finance and banking apps, and it's no longer just 2-3 exchanges like Coinbase that are worth using these days.
All the more so because exchanges have heavy KYC requirements nowadays.
As for the euphoria around Bitcoin, the price is still in a range that doesn't attract retail, between $50k and $120k, which are prices close to $100k, the milestone that used to attract retail.
But the big news of BTC breaking $100k already happened almost 2 years ago. So for retail, BTC being back at 85k is not fresh, not interesting.
It was easier to sell a "buy Bitcoin, get rich" narrative when the token went from $300 to $30,000 than when it goes from $60k to $100k.
The $150k and $200k milestones should attract retail again, but in the meantime most people feel like BTC is stagnating and has been "around $100k" for years.
Also people are more interested in AI than Crypto, which makes sense.
---
β¦ What to watch?
$BTC got rejected at $87k on Oct 2, with $433M liquidated, mostly longs.
Of course, it's not a straight line.
So are we staying in an uptrend?
There are a few dates to watch.
- Today, Oct 4, we could have the third weekly close in a row above the 50-week MA
- Oct 14: US inflation (CPI)
- Oct 27-28: Fed decision
- Nov 9: Congress is back after the midterms
The Clarity Act: Polymarket traders give it about a 5% chance of becoming law before the end of the year.
The Oct 2 jobs report came in weak (29k jobs vs ~85k expected), and the odds of an October hike dropped from ~70% to ~20% in a week.
A December hike is still priced around 70%.
$BTC didn't flinch on the first hike. Will that still be true if rates keep going up?
We'll have to see how the market reacts, especially crypto compared to the US market.
If crypto keeps going its own way when the macro news gets worse, those numbers will matter less and less, and we can start talking about a decorrelation phase.
In any case, for now the market thinks there will be more rate hikes, that the Clarity Act won't be adopted in 2026, and despite that crypto is doing well.
It may only take one piece of good news for BTC to explode.
In the meantime, the SEC has still been proposing regulations lately to frame the market, giving more clarity and visibility to various crypto companies, especially for tokenization.
On Sept 17 it issued an innovation exemption letting venues trade tokenized US stocks.
That builds confidence among institutions and big investors.
As things stand now, I'm definitely bullish π«‘
Shiro retweeted
Crypto is hot again!
$BTC broke $85k, for the first time since January.
$ETH is back around $2,700.
Most large caps are following too.
Is it going to continue?
Here is my take β
This growth is happening even though there has been bad news recently.
The kind of bad news that usually pushes the crypto market down.
The environment is uncertain, but BTC stays strong.
People are flipping.
Even those we heard waiting for BTC at $50k are now calling a bottom.
---
β¦ What's the news?
β’ Sept 15: The Clarity Act did not pass.
This is the bill meant to turn the rules that frame and clarify crypto into law, something more definitive and therefore harder to undo for the next US administration.
It was a highly anticipated law that could boost the crypto market.
With the midterms on Nov 3, there are only ~20 legislative days left this year, all of them after the elections.
It's going to be hard (if not impossible) to get it passed before the end of 2026.
Despite that, $BTC remained strong.
Well, it still printed its September low that day, around $74.9k.
But six days later it was above $85k again.
β’ Sept 16: The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 (+25 bps, to 3.75%-4.00%).
It didn't really move crypto markets either.
Usually that's bad for every risk asset, and crypto dumps hard on this kind of announcement.
When rates go up, investors can earn yield on their capital without taking much risk, which reduces the usage of crypto in general.
β’ The recent $387M Bitget hack, which once again hurts trust in crypto and its major players.
β’ The macro context as a whole is still uncertain, with pressure in the Strait of Hormuz and the oil price going up.
---
We're coming out of a long bearish period, with long liquidations one after another, where BTC followed tech stocks only on the way down and not really on the way up.
BTC used to react badly to every piece of bad news, but didn't react positively to the good news.
We could have expected the Clarity Act news to be catastrophic for crypto price action, and yet the market recovered quickly.
Same for the hack, and the rates.
In short, everything that used to push Bitcoin down and everything that amplified fear around risk assets doesn't seem to move the crypto market lately.
Bitcoin is holding well and has even gained value.
Meanwhile, those who saw crypto dead until 2027 are flipping, news sites talk about the end of the bear market, and institutions are turning bullish again.
---
β¦ The Bullish Facts
- $BTC tapped $85k on Sept 21, for the first time since January
- Weekly close back above the 50-week moving average (week of Sept 20), after 45 weeks below it.
Per Galaxy, this happened 13 times since 2011. 11 times out of 13, the market didn't make a new low afterward
- K33, Galaxy, Tom Lee (BitMine chairman), and many more have all made the case that the bottom is in.
- Money is coming back into the ETFs: almost $1B of inflows on Sept 21, the biggest day in 11 months, and $2.65B over September
- Shorts got wiped: ~$648M liquidated in 24h on Sept 21
- Hype and euphoria are back. More activity on social media, some inactive accounts returning, accounts that had pivoted to AI coming back to talk about crypto, etc.
- More launches, more projects, more volume, new chains, new narratives, new trends, etc.
- Many large caps doing 2x on the monthly
- The (shy) return of airdrops
---
β¦ But where is retail?
For now there's no retail euphoria like in 2021.
Coinbase is still far from the top of the App Store, while it used to get close to #1 during bull markets.
But that doesn't really surprise me.
At some point, most people interested in crypto have already downloaded and used the Coinbase app, there are also many apps now, including ones built directly into finance and banking apps, and it's no longer just 2-3 exchanges like Coinbase that are worth using these days.
All the more so because exchanges have heavy KYC requirements nowadays.
As for the euphoria around Bitcoin, the price is still in a range that doesn't attract retail, between $50k and $120k, which are prices close to $100k, the milestone that used to attract retail.
But the big news of BTC breaking $100k already happened almost 2 years ago. So for retail, BTC being back at 85k is not fresh, not interesting.
It was easier to sell a "buy Bitcoin, get rich" narrative when the token went from $300 to $30,000 than when it goes from $60k to $100k.
The $150k and $200k milestones should attract retail again, but in the meantime most people feel like BTC is stagnating and has been "around $100k" for years.
Also people are more interested in AI than Crypto, which makes sense.
---
β¦ What to watch?
$BTC got rejected at $87k on Oct 2, with $433M liquidated, mostly longs.
Of course, it's not a straight line.
So are we staying in an uptrend?
There are a few dates to watch.
- Today, Oct 4, we could have the third weekly close in a row above the 50-week MA
- Oct 14: US inflation (CPI)
- Oct 27-28: Fed decision
- Nov 9: Congress is back after the midterms
The Clarity Act: Polymarket traders give it about a 5% chance of becoming law before the end of the year.
The Oct 2 jobs report came in weak (29k jobs vs ~85k expected), and the odds of an October hike dropped from ~70% to ~20% in a week.
A December hike is still priced around 70%.
$BTC didn't flinch on the first hike. Will that still be true if rates keep going up?
We'll have to see how the market reacts, especially crypto compared to the US market.
If crypto keeps going its own way when the macro news gets worse, those numbers will matter less and less, and we can start talking about a decorrelation phase.
In any case, for now the market thinks there will be more rate hikes, that the Clarity Act won't be adopted in 2026, and despite that crypto is doing well.
It may only take one piece of good news for BTC to explode.
In the meantime, the SEC has still been proposing regulations lately to frame the market, giving more clarity and visibility to various crypto companies, especially for tokenization.
On Sept 17 it issued an innovation exemption letting venues trade tokenized US stocks.
That builds confidence among institutions and big investors.
As things stand now, I'm definitely bullish π«‘
Crypto is hot again!
$BTC broke $85k, for the first time since January.
$ETH is back around $2,700.
Most large caps are following too.
Is it going to continue?
Here is my take β
This growth is happening even though there has been bad news recently.
The kind of bad news that usually pushes the crypto market down.
The environment is uncertain, but BTC stays strong.
People are flipping.
Even those we heard waiting for BTC at $50k are now calling a bottom.
---
β¦ What's the news?
β’ Sept 15: The Clarity Act did not pass.
This is the bill meant to turn the rules that frame and clarify crypto into law, something more definitive and therefore harder to undo for the next US administration.
It was a highly anticipated law that could boost the crypto market.
With the midterms on Nov 3, there are only ~20 legislative days left this year, all of them after the elections.
It's going to be hard (if not impossible) to get it passed before the end of 2026.
Despite that, $BTC remained strong.
Well, it still printed its September low that day, around $74.9k.
But six days later it was above $85k again.
β’ Sept 16: The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 (+25 bps, to 3.75%-4.00%).
It didn't really move crypto markets either.
Usually that's bad for every risk asset, and crypto dumps hard on this kind of announcement.
When rates go up, investors can earn yield on their capital without taking much risk, which reduces the usage of crypto in general.
β’ The recent $387M Bitget hack, which once again hurts trust in crypto and its major players.
β’ The macro context as a whole is still uncertain, with pressure in the Strait of Hormuz and the oil price going up.
---
We're coming out of a long bearish period, with long liquidations one after another, where BTC followed tech stocks only on the way down and not really on the way up.
BTC used to react badly to every piece of bad news, but didn't react positively to the good news.
We could have expected the Clarity Act news to be catastrophic for crypto price action, and yet the market recovered quickly.
Same for the hack, and the rates.
In short, everything that used to push Bitcoin down and everything that amplified fear around risk assets doesn't seem to move the crypto market lately.
Bitcoin is holding well and has even gained value.
Meanwhile, those who saw crypto dead until 2027 are flipping, news sites talk about the end of the bear market, and institutions are turning bullish again.
---
β¦ The Bullish Facts
- $BTC tapped $85k on Sept 21, for the first time since January
- Weekly close back above the 50-week moving average (week of Sept 20), after 45 weeks below it.
Per Galaxy, this happened 13 times since 2011. 11 times out of 13, the market didn't make a new low afterward
- K33, Galaxy, Tom Lee (BitMine chairman), and many more have all made the case that the bottom is in.
- Money is coming back into the ETFs: almost $1B of inflows on Sept 21, the biggest day in 11 months, and $2.65B over September
- Shorts got wiped: ~$648M liquidated in 24h on Sept 21
- Hype and euphoria are back. More activity on social media, some inactive accounts returning, accounts that had pivoted to AI coming back to talk about crypto, etc.
- More launches, more projects, more volume, new chains, new narratives, new trends, etc.
- Many large caps doing 2x on the monthly
- The (shy) return of airdrops
---
β¦ But where is retail?
For now there's no retail euphoria like in 2021.
Coinbase is still far from the top of the App Store, while it used to get close to #1 during bull markets.
But that doesn't really surprise me.
At some point, most people interested in crypto have already downloaded and used the Coinbase app, there are also many apps now, including ones built directly into finance and banking apps, and it's no longer just 2-3 exchanges like Coinbase that are worth using these days.
All the more so because exchanges have heavy KYC requirements nowadays.
As for the euphoria around Bitcoin, the price is still in a range that doesn't attract retail, between $50k and $120k, which are prices close to $100k, the milestone that used to attract retail.
But the big news of BTC breaking $100k already happened almost 2 years ago. So for retail, BTC being back at 85k is not fresh, not interesting.
It was easier to sell a "buy Bitcoin, get rich" narrative when the token went from $300 to $30,000 than when it goes from $60k to $100k.
The $150k and $200k milestones should attract retail again, but in the meantime most people feel like BTC is stagnating and has been "around $100k" for years.
Also people are more interested in AI than Crypto, which makes sense.
---
β¦ What to watch?
$BTC got rejected at $87k on Oct 2, with $433M liquidated, mostly longs.
Of course, it's not a straight line.
So are we staying in an uptrend?
There are a few dates to watch.
- Today, Oct 4, we could have the third weekly close in a row above the 50-week MA
- Oct 14: US inflation (CPI)
- Oct 27-28: Fed decision
- Nov 9: Congress is back after the midterms
The Clarity Act: Polymarket traders give it about a 5% chance of becoming law before the end of the year.
The Oct 2 jobs report came in weak (29k jobs vs ~85k expected), and the odds of an October hike dropped from ~70% to ~20% in a week.
A December hike is still priced around 70%.
$BTC didn't flinch on the first hike. Will that still be true if rates keep going up?
We'll have to see how the market reacts, especially crypto compared to the US market.
If crypto keeps going its own way when the macro news gets worse, those numbers will matter less and less, and we can start talking about a decorrelation phase.
In any case, for now the market thinks there will be more rate hikes, that the Clarity Act won't be adopted in 2026, and despite that crypto is doing well.
It may only take one piece of good news for BTC to explode.
In the meantime, the SEC has still been proposing regulations lately to frame the market, giving more clarity and visibility to various crypto companies, especially for tokenization.
On Sept 17 it issued an innovation exemption letting venues trade tokenized US stocks.
That builds confidence among institutions and big investors.
As things stand now, I'm definitely bullish π«‘
Shiro retweeted
Market is dipping, which might just be the chance to load up on strong assets.
Leaking my personal top 20 watchlist, built over the past weeks & months, and grouped by narrative. Maybe you find smth interesting:
1) Private compute and private money
- $ARX: encrypted supercomputer, a decentralized MPC network for private AI (study Blackthorn) and any encrypted compute use case, incl. the confidential token standard cSPL on Solana. The lagging peer to ZAMA and my main privacy bet rn.
β DYOR: @Arcium
- $ZAMA: FHE protocol for confidential assets issued, traded and managed on public chains, built for institutions. Already kinda owns the private money/DeFi angle if we talk programmability/composability beyond ZEC).
β DYOR: @zama
- $AZTEC: the privacy L2 on Ethereum, private smart contracts written in Noir with client-side proofs and decentralized sequencing and proving. Had some hiccups along the way but probs the highest beta play in the privacy basket here.
β DYOR: @aztecnetwork
2) Decentralized and private AI
- $TAO: subnets compete for TAO emissions by serving inference, training, compute and prediction, each with its own alpha token under dTAO so emissions follow real stake demand. The index bet on decentralized AI.
β DYOR: @opentensor
- $VVV: private, uncensored inference on open models. Staking gives a pro-rata share of daily API capacity and mints DIEM, $1 of API credit per day in perpetuity. AI compute as a yield-bearing asset.
β DYOR: @AskVenice
- $PRL: Pearl, an AI L1 running proof of useful work. GPU miners do matrix multiplication and AI inference instead of hashing, results are verified onchain, mainnet since April. New floating-point PoUW scheme for Blackwell with near-zero overhead on vLLM inference went live on Pearl endpoints mid-Sep. The proof of work take on decentralized AI, emissions buy real inference instead of hashes.
β DYOR: @prlnet
- $NEAR: open infrastructure for the agent economy, confidential execution and inference, >1M TPS, liquidity unified across 30+ chains via intents.
β DYOR: @NEARProtocol
- $AURORA: the EVM on NEAR that quietly turned into a cross-chain execution layer via Aurora Intents, one signature to swap, deposit and execute across 20+ chains. Small cap beta riding the NEAR intents hype.
β DYOR: @auroraisnear
3) Machine economy
- $PEAQ: base layer for the machine economy, robots doing business onchain, anyone activating, financing and building multichain apps around their machines.
β DYOR: @peaq
- $CODEC: full robotics stack. Simulate and train in SimArena, build on Fabric (compute) and OPTR (runtime), get on a factory floor through the foundry, fund it on @machinedotfun (launchpad for hardware/robotics builders).
β DYOR: @codecopenflow
1/2
Shiro retweeted
Yuge.
The market is finally pricing ethereum:0xfaba6f8e4a5e8ab82f62fe7c39859fa577269be3 as the equity-like proxy for the entire tokenized securities wave.
Remember a tokenized stock wins a trade but a trusted pf token can win a lasting allocation. If a wallet/exchange can distribute one managed exposure token instead of building brokerage, basket execution and rebalancing itself, @Ondo becomes more than an asset issuer.
(1) Its stock inventory supplies the pf's
(2) Broader distribution will draw balances into those pf's
(3) Accepted collateral will make those balances useful in lending and perps
And that is a potentially powerful loop.
Introducing Ondo Intelligent Portfolios, the first three portfolios powered by BlackRock.
Ondo Intelligent Portfolios introduces a new onchain product category: curated investment portfolios delivered as single onchain transferable tokens.
The first three portfolios are based on portfolio strategies developed by BlackRock for Ondo, marking the first time eligible onchain investors can access exposure to such strategies through a single token.
1. BLKHIon: Ondo High Income Powered by BlackRock
2. BLKDIGon: Ondo Diversified Growth Powered by BlackRock
3. BLKGRWon: Ondo High Growth Powered by BlackRock
Diversified, professionally constructed strategies have historically required brokerage accounts and traditional fund structures. Now, delivered as peer-to-peer transferable tokens from Ondo, these onchain portfolios become accessible to eligible non-US investors in permitted jurisdictions through the wallets, exchanges, and DeFi applications they already use.
βTokenization creates new ways for portfolio strategies to be delivered through digital infrastructure. Diversified portfolio strategies can be incorporated into tokenized investment products, enabling eligible investors to access diversified allocations through a single instrument. It shows how established portfolio construction approaches can be delivered through new channels and technologies.β - Lisa OβConnor, Global Head of the Model Portfolio Solutions team and Co-CIO for Global Solutions within the Multi-Asset Strategies group at BlackRock
Ondo Intelligent Portfolios can unlock novel capabilities:
β Programmatic rebalancing
β Full composability with DeFi
β Complete transparency onchain
β Multiple asset classes in a single token
This is just the start for Ondo Intelligent Portfolios. The infrastructure is now in place for leading financial institutions to bring their asset allocation expertise onchain.
Shiro retweeted
Are you ready for @ForecastFDN season?
Very excited for this launch.
Iβll link my article on Forecast below if you havenβt checked it yet.
Shiro retweeted
was on a call with @codecopenflow for @machinedotfun and R______
made me so fkin bullish on the R______ team and my $STONK bag.
they know what they are doing, mayne.
(ive been on calls with both teams. stark difference that you can tell immediately)
a certain company that we'll call Voldemort has been rumored to be accumulating the solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx token in order to aggressively suppress price while they run coordinated FUD campaigns.
but @LaunchOnSF has an irrefutable advantage that Voldemort does not:
tokenomics.
solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx has some of the most appealing tokenomics of any project in the history of crypto.
1. there's no mint authority to dilute you back.
2. there's no VC's to dump on you
3. 60% of fees from the launchpad get harvested, a large share is spent buying solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx on the open market, and those tokens are permanently removed from existence.
#3 is why they have such a steep advantage against the incumbent-who-shall-not-be-named.
** to be clear, we do not know for a fact that Voldemort is using this tactic, but it's a commonly cited rumor.
this is a thought piece to help explain why, even if it IS in fact happening, that it's more bullish for STONK than it is bearish.**
lets continue
every time a party buys and sells solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx with malicious intent, the great irony is they are only reducing the total supply of STONK, which on a long enough time horizon will lead to their ultimate success.
Current state of things:
- original supply: 1,000,000,000
- already burned: ~180m (~18%) in roughly two months since launch
- still circulating: ~820m
- protocol fees (defillama stonkfun): ~$8.4m / 7d
at today's price (~$0.35), that 7d buyback pace retires roughly ~2.3m solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx per day
at today's 7d pace you're on track for ~34% of the original 1b gone by dec 31. double that pace and you land near ~50%.
how do you beat voldemort when they have enough money to suppress your price?
suppression is reversible. burns are not. voldemort can lease price with inventory and fud. they cannot unburn tokens. every day the mint shrinks, the float they have to lean on gets thinner. their cost of keeping a lid on rises, and Voldemort is the one pouring gas on the fire
one obvious caveat is that whenever solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx price goes up, that means the effect of the buybacks is weaker, which is part of why Voldemort's buybacks are so weak compared to STONK's rapid deflation.
this is the game theory @LaunchOnSF opted into and voldemort didn't design for. fair launch, no VC's, designed to go up with their holders.
voldemort can win attention cycles through purchasable influence, but solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx is built to win the float war.
if they keep suppressing while the burn accelerates, they're not "winning the chart."
instead, they're volunteering to underwrite a thinner future supply for everyone still holding when the campaigns go quiet, assuming you've accumulated when you had the chance.
see you at a billy+
Shiro retweeted
$NET generated more revenue last week than:
> the Robinhood chain
> Uniswap
> Raydium
> Pons
and more
All while being in a relatively low volume consolidation period.
Once we see that second leg up, revenue numbers will turn EVERYONE's heads.
I have zero doubt that this trades higher somewhere in the future.
(π₯
,π₯
)
Shareholders,
Over the last week the NetNet Capital Management Treasury has grown by an average of $650,000 per day. The $4,550,000 in weekly revenue makes us a top 10 earning protocol in the entire sector over the last week.
Extended over a year, this weekly rate would lead to over Treasury surpassing $250,000,000.
However we do not expect this rate to stay this low, we will find ways to make our Treasury grow faster as the days go on.
More Soon.
Shiro retweeted
NEWS: @LaunchOnSF (StonkFun) has become the #1 memecoin launchpad across all chains by 24-hour revenue, surpassing both PumpFun and Pons combined.
It also ranks #3 among all protocols across chains by 24-hour revenue.
Shiro retweeted
46x on $STONK btw π«‘
Gm,
I'm buying more $STONK.
Right now it's at $7M Mcap, and I think we'll have a run back to ATH ($14M Mcap) easily.
I've been in since ~$3M Mcap.
So of course it's easier for me to buy more here.
I still expect (at least) a 2x from here. β
β¦ Thesis:
StonkFun is a launchpad on Solana.
And while Solana definitely doesn't need another generic memecoin launchpad, Stonk is very different from that.
The idea is simple:
β Launch coins paired with basically anything.
β’ Stocks, commodities, currencies, memes, pre-IPO assets, leveraged assets, etc.
The metrics are already good:
β ~$300M total volume
β $106M+ RWA volume
β $700k+ revenue
β Nearly $500k used for $STONK buybacks/burns
And there is an ecosystem flywheel.
Fees generated by the platform support $STONK, while the platform also buys & burns tokens among its top ecosystem coins.
More volume β more fees β more buybacks β stronger ecosystem.
They're also integrating with more trading platforms and adding new RWAs as they become available on Solana.
Even the Solana account on X acknowledged Stonk, replying to one of their posts.
π x.com/solana/status/20902052β¦
The product keeps improving, more integrations are coming, and the team is trying something genuinely new instead of launching another Pump clone.
There are also already some actual runners coming out of the ecosystem.
The biggest one right now is $MANLET, paired with ANSEM, sitting around a $2M market cap.
$BUTTHOLE, paired with Anthropic, is also making a comeback to $1.8M Mcap.
I'm in $TREE, currently ~$130k Mcap. This one is quite interesting but of course high risk.
And I'm also in $GTA6, but got in at ~$1M and sold most of it around $2.2M. It's now down quite a bit. I'm not sure yet I'll be getting back in. Also high risk.
There are interesting pairings around all kinds of things: assets, memes, video games, companies, people, etc.
As mentioned before you already have markets tied to GTA6, Apple, Anthropic, silver, Ansem and more.
It's why it's interesting, it's creating markets around existing narratives, people, companies and assets.
Lots of possibilities.
46x on $STONK btw π«‘
Gm,
I'm buying more $STONK.
Right now it's at $7M Mcap, and I think we'll have a run back to ATH ($14M Mcap) easily.
I've been in since ~$3M Mcap.
So of course it's easier for me to buy more here.
I still expect (at least) a 2x from here. β
β¦ Thesis:
StonkFun is a launchpad on Solana.
And while Solana definitely doesn't need another generic memecoin launchpad, Stonk is very different from that.
The idea is simple:
β Launch coins paired with basically anything.
β’ Stocks, commodities, currencies, memes, pre-IPO assets, leveraged assets, etc.
The metrics are already good:
β ~$300M total volume
β $106M+ RWA volume
β $700k+ revenue
β Nearly $500k used for $STONK buybacks/burns
And there is an ecosystem flywheel.
Fees generated by the platform support $STONK, while the platform also buys & burns tokens among its top ecosystem coins.
More volume β more fees β more buybacks β stronger ecosystem.
They're also integrating with more trading platforms and adding new RWAs as they become available on Solana.
Even the Solana account on X acknowledged Stonk, replying to one of their posts.
π x.com/solana/status/20902052β¦
The product keeps improving, more integrations are coming, and the team is trying something genuinely new instead of launching another Pump clone.
There are also already some actual runners coming out of the ecosystem.
The biggest one right now is $MANLET, paired with ANSEM, sitting around a $2M market cap.
$BUTTHOLE, paired with Anthropic, is also making a comeback to $1.8M Mcap.
I'm in $TREE, currently ~$130k Mcap. This one is quite interesting but of course high risk.
And I'm also in $GTA6, but got in at ~$1M and sold most of it around $2.2M. It's now down quite a bit. I'm not sure yet I'll be getting back in. Also high risk.
There are interesting pairings around all kinds of things: assets, memes, video games, companies, people, etc.
As mentioned before you already have markets tied to GTA6, Apple, Anthropic, silver, Ansem and more.
It's why it's interesting, it's creating markets around existing narratives, people, companies and assets.
Lots of possibilities.
Shiro retweeted
2x on ethereum:0xa12cc123ba206d4031d1c7f6223d1c2ec249f4f3 in 5 days.
Looks like people are liking Confidential Assets!
The Privacy Narrative is strong. π«‘
Gm,
You remember back in June I told you about a huge privacy innovation: Confidential Assets.
And with what's happening recently with "trusted" entities, Privacy is for sure one of the most important Narratives in Crypto.
Now, Zama brings these confidential assets to DeFi β
---
Basically, @zama is taking confidential DeFi from experiment to actual use.
β¦ Quick reminder of what Zama is:
β Zama is the HTTPS layer for public blockchains.
Zama is NOT a new blockchain for privacy that no one will use.
It's a layer that can and should be used on any L1 or L2, where the users already are.
That design lets confidentiality sit on top of the venues and liquidity institutional capital already use.
Back in June, @zama launched the first confidential USDC yield vault with Morpho and Steakhouse.
As I shared here:
π x.com/CryptoShiro_/status/20β¦
π x.com/CryptoShiro_/status/20β¦
β It went from $0 to $40M TVL in 7 weeks.
So yeah, quite a success!
Now they're scaling the model: more vaults, more assets, more yield.
---
β¦ The new Confidential DeFi launch brings:
β’ 16 vaults
β’ 5 curators
β’ 5 confidential assets
β’ Confidential swaps through the Zama Swap Protocol
The idea is pretty simple:
DeFi already has the venues, liquidity and strategies.
But it's missing the privacy.
On public blockchains, your positions, balances and activity are normally visible to everyone.
Zama adds a confidentiality layer on top of existing chains and protocols instead of building another isolated blockchain.
β Basically, HTTPS for public blockchains.
---
β¦ There are now two types of confidential vaults:
βͺ Hybrid vaults
Existing live vaults that can also accept confidential assets like cUSDC and cUSDT.
Same underlying strategy and curator, but your position stays confidential.
βͺ Exclusive vaults
Vaults built specifically around confidential assets, with no regular public deposit path.
This also enables new products, including the first confidential WBTC yield vault.
And now you have the Zama Swap Protocol on top of that to make things easier.
So now, to be fully confidential in DeFi, you can:
β’ Shield β Deposit β Earn β Swap
Without publicly exposing your position or swap intent.
Confidential DeFi is getting a lot more real!
NFA & DYOR π«‘
2x on ethereum:0xa12cc123ba206d4031d1c7f6223d1c2ec249f4f3 in 5 days.
Looks like people are liking Confidential Assets!
The Privacy Narrative is strong. π«‘
Gm,
You remember back in June I told you about a huge privacy innovation: Confidential Assets.
And with what's happening recently with "trusted" entities, Privacy is for sure one of the most important Narratives in Crypto.
Now, Zama brings these confidential assets to DeFi β
---
Basically, @zama is taking confidential DeFi from experiment to actual use.
β¦ Quick reminder of what Zama is:
β Zama is the HTTPS layer for public blockchains.
Zama is NOT a new blockchain for privacy that no one will use.
It's a layer that can and should be used on any L1 or L2, where the users already are.
That design lets confidentiality sit on top of the venues and liquidity institutional capital already use.
Back in June, @zama launched the first confidential USDC yield vault with Morpho and Steakhouse.
As I shared here:
π x.com/CryptoShiro_/status/20β¦
π x.com/CryptoShiro_/status/20β¦
β It went from $0 to $40M TVL in 7 weeks.
So yeah, quite a success!
Now they're scaling the model: more vaults, more assets, more yield.
---
β¦ The new Confidential DeFi launch brings:
β’ 16 vaults
β’ 5 curators
β’ 5 confidential assets
β’ Confidential swaps through the Zama Swap Protocol
The idea is pretty simple:
DeFi already has the venues, liquidity and strategies.
But it's missing the privacy.
On public blockchains, your positions, balances and activity are normally visible to everyone.
Zama adds a confidentiality layer on top of existing chains and protocols instead of building another isolated blockchain.
β Basically, HTTPS for public blockchains.
---
β¦ There are now two types of confidential vaults:
βͺ Hybrid vaults
Existing live vaults that can also accept confidential assets like cUSDC and cUSDT.
Same underlying strategy and curator, but your position stays confidential.
βͺ Exclusive vaults
Vaults built specifically around confidential assets, with no regular public deposit path.
This also enables new products, including the first confidential WBTC yield vault.
And now you have the Zama Swap Protocol on top of that to make things easier.
So now, to be fully confidential in DeFi, you can:
β’ Shield β Deposit β Earn β Swap
Without publicly exposing your position or swap intent.
Confidential DeFi is getting a lot more real!
NFA & DYOR π«‘