Crypto Degen | Not Elon
$100,000,000
Joined December 2011
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CryptoElon retweeted
This is burnout, and if you want to survive as a trader, you must learn to recognize it.
True burnout is not just being overworked, nor is it something you can push through. It is a feedback loop that occurs when your body experiences intense, prolonged stress.
Stress is part of life, and under normal conditions you can recover from it easily. In fact, many dimensions of human performance - strength, endurance, mental acuity - actually require stress in order to grow.
However, growth in response to stress can only happen when the stress is manageable and offset by periods of recovery. When the stress is extreme and constant, the body fails to adapt and enters a downward spiral.
As stress accumulates, several things happen physiologically:
- sleep is disrupted
- hormones become dysregulated
- mental performance degrades
- heart rate variability falls
- inflammation rises and immune function declines
The problem is that each of these effects also *reduces your ability to withstand and recover from stress.* So you enter a vicious cycle where recovery becomes impossible and performance steadily deteriorates.
The experience @agapestride describes here is exactly what it feels like to burn out from trading. And if you find yourself in this situation, the most important thing you can do is *recognize what has happened.*
You are not dumber than you used to be. You are not more indecisive. You are not more impulsive, fearful, or greedy. You are simply physiologically impaired by severe, chronic stress.
When you notice the signs of burnout, you must prioritize recovery above all else:
- cut your risk
- stop looking at charts
- get off social media
- play sports or start running
- spend time with friends and family
- go hiking or traveling
- take lots of hot baths
As much as it feels like the best time to make generational wealth is RIGHT NOW, the market will always be here. So take a break and don't come back until you know your body can handle it.
CryptoElon retweeted
stanley druckenmiller was asked how he sizes his positions.
his answer flips business school on its head:
"if you're highly diversified, you have less risk than if you're highly concentrated. i don't believe that at all."
"what i learned was, sizing is probably 70 or 80% of the equation. it's not whether you're right or wrong, it's how much you make when you're right, and how much you lose when you're wrong."
then the part nobody talks about. he sizes himself, not just the trade:
"one of my number one jobs is to know whether i'm hot or cold. and when i'm hot, i'm supposed to turn the dial way up."
"when you're cold, the last thing you should do is try and make big bets to get back to even. you should tone yourself down."
amateurs size the trade. professionals size themselves too.
CryptoElon retweeted
FED
It's popular to suggest the 10y yield will fall if the Fed hikes rates this week.
Unless this is a "one and done" hike, though, history suggests the 10y will rise as the hike cycle progresses.
The 10y has risen in every modern hike cycle (especially early in the cycle).
CryptoElon retweeted
Recommended reading for the weekend:
1. @TemaETFs — Know Your HBF: How Big a Deal Is It?
2. @BlackRock — CIO Perspective: AI, the Fed and Market Opportunities
3. @BCG — Space-Based Data Centers
4. @jpmorgan — Software report: Industry trends
5. @MicronTech — How query types shape GPU demand, memory, and power
6. @citrini — Macro Memo: Regime Change
7. AI Insider — The State of Humanoid Robotics in 2026: Trends, Challenges and Opportunities
8. @jpmorgan — How institutional traders have adapted to the new normal of increased market volatility
9. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh — In Our Time
10. @nvidia — Q2 Earnings Transcript
Cool Equity Research Tool:
11. @demian_ai — AI Bottlenecks App
CryptoElon retweeted
AI market dyanmics rant:
Hyperscalers are underlevered relative to most investment grade borrowers but are running into real barriers borrowing more at current cost because they've now become such a large weight within investment grade bond indices that credit investors can't own anymore. Hyperscaler connected bonds are now yielding higher than far worse credits because of the quantity of supply they're issuing (see Meta's latest offering under the "Sopaipilla Investor" vehicle for more evidence)
That leaves selling stock, which shouldn't be an issue given the TRILLIONS in MAG7 market cap but that's giving some incumbent shareholders pause because they initially purchased shares in what were cash flow machines that shrunk the sharecount via repurchases. Transforming into a company that stopped buying back stock to dilutes shareholders while dipping into negative free cash flows for the first time in recent memory is an abrupt shift.
The hyperscalers can point to customer demand that they're investing to serve. So far this earnings season, Google has provided solid evidence of that with GCP accelerating to 80%+ growth at higher margins. That is an easily justifiable income statement ROIC investment case. Meeting that demand is causing the negative free cash flow that shareholders are now revolting against.
So there's a few potential scenarios. Hyperscaler shareholders could eventually come around and cheer on the capex going into what they now perceive to be high return investments. That's the delusional bull scenario where hyperscaler and semis investors win simulatenously and we go full railroad bubble with unlimited available financing. Another plausible scenario is hyperscaler investors lose and GOOG/META shareholders weep while Sergi/Zuck pursue AGI at all cost, while semis investors continue to win.
Another scenario is full shareholder revolt where the investment taps get turned off. If that happens, but demand for AI services continues to grow unabated, then returns roof for existing compute providers including neoclouds, the hyperscalers themselves, and the labs (OpenAI + Anthropic). Hyperscalers would win, neoclouds would win, but semis would lose over the short term. This is likely a temporary scenario because capital would ultimately chase those very high returns to invest in inference capacity, with the hyperscalers playing a large role.
If the investments taps get turned off because demand for AI services stops growing and inference supply is sufficient then it's possible, but not probable, hyperscalers win (depending on where their valuations are at that point) as the secular threat to their business is diminished and they'll return to very high free cash flow producing stocks. Semis are a smoldering crater, as they tend to be at the end of every capital cycle, as are adjacent industries. AI loser trade probably returns with a vengeance in a rerun of the dotcom bubble where the companies that didn't participate in the bubble thrive throughout the bear market.
Demand for AI services has been led by improvements in frontier capabilities so, as it has been for the past two years, that's the issue to monitor. We've had insane capability improvement since late last year, and if the lab employee vagueposting (as well as the GW deployment schedule) is to beleived, it's set to continue to accelerate.
That's a medium/longer term signal, not near term. Micron fell 60% over the 10 months from June 2024 to the liberation day lows of April 2025. Semis just had one of the most violent rallies of all time YTD so it wouldn't be crazy for things to languish for a while, especially beginning in the summer (July is the worst month seasonally for momentum).
CryptoElon retweeted
Full transcript of Wenfeng's investor conference call. He's a lot more forceful here. He is insistent that open sourcing is *the* agenda. If you're not on board, go buy more Zhipu.
And crucially, he says restraint is *the only way to survive*. World-eating labs will be culled.
This quoted post is unavailable.
CryptoElon retweeted
Two threads just got published by @0xBADB01E
that changed how I think about the AI trade. Ill try my best to translate as easy as possible.
> One showed inference is a LATENCY problem once models are sharded.
> One showed scaleup stays COPPER and the neocloud layer is a debt treadmill.
Implications: The latency between chips is the "binding constraint" for interactive inference. And his answer on whether optics fixes it? No.
> Optics flap, conversion adds latency, and a latency critical blend cannot tolerate flapping links.
> Copper wins short reach, and the only copper drawback (SerDes power) gets engineered around.
At high batch the problem flips to memory CAPACITY. KV cache explodes past what any HBM package holds, forcing sharding across extra $40K GPUs and paying the interconnect tax again. It all ends the same, the wire and the DRAM bit win.
> $CRDO - makes the smart copper cables connecting AI chips. The argument above says copper keeps this job. Direct winner.
> $SMTC - makes chips that clean up signals in those connections while burning less power. The exact direction he says the industry is heading.
> $ALAB / $PENG - both play the "cheaper fix" for the memory space problem: letting many chips share one big pool of memory instead of everyone buying more expensive chips. He just derived the demand for this from first principles.
> $MU / Hynix / Samsung - every version of this debate ends the same way, buying more memory, despite whatever architecture wins.
The one layer to be careful with are companies that borrow heavily to buy GPUs and rent them out. His math is that the hardware loses value faster than the loans get paid off, and every new chip generation restarts the problem. A business can show 80% margins and still go broke that way.
CryptoElon retweeted
Paradis Research | $META the neocloud
Meta may build a cloud business to sell excess AI compute capacity.
TLDR:
- $META selling excess compute because they literally have no roadmap to use old gen capacity
- This is not bearish for neoclouds like $NBIS
- $META would instead dump old Hopper/Blackwell it overbought while renting new Vera Rubin capacity from $NBIS for 2027.
Just to frame Meta's own scale since it matters for what "excess" actually means:
- Meta has guided 2026 capex to ~$135B, up ~75% YoY.
- They've said they'll buy "millions" of $NVDA Blackwell + Rubin GPUs this year alongside Grace CPUs.
- While simultaneously scaling MTIA, their in-house training/inference accelerator designed w/ $AVGO.
Two implications:
1. At that spend, even a low % of "overbuilt" capacity is a multi $billion pool of resellable compute.
2. A cloud business is years from positively impacting Meta's rev mix which is still mainly from ads.
But naturally, the market has sold off the neoclouds today out of fear:
- $NBIS -14%
- $CRWV -13%
However, the threat to the incumbent neoclouds has been massively overstated ever since the news came out. I've been cringing reading bearish posts.
Per $NBIS March release, the two signed a 5 yr deal worth up to ~$27B:
- $12B of dedicated Vera Rubin capacity delivering early 2027
- Up to $15B of flexible capacity that Nebius intends to sell to third parties, with Meta buying whatever is left over as a backstop.
So Meta is simultaneously renting frontier compute from Nebius and floating the resale of its own.
Pretty funny lol.
Meta wants guaranteed compute allocation speed which Nebius with their Nvidia partnership can deliver.
While the capacity it would resell is older generation kit (Hopper, early Blackwell) it over ordered.
That segmentation dissolves most of the paradox and probably tells you the resale pool is marginal + ageing supply.
Naturally, the reflex reaction is to think that Meta will crush GPU pricing + breaks the compute shortage thesis:
If Meta tip from net renters (Microsoft rents from $CRWV and Nebius exactly because they're short on capacity) to net sellers, the marginal price of rented compute softens, and the neocloud and neoclouds get impacted.
But the bulk of the neocloud revenue is contracted and pre-paid over multi year deals.
Nebius's ~$50B backlog and CoreWeave's own book anchored by Microsoft insulate them.
And bitcoin miners like $IREN, $CIFR, $CORZ, $WULF, $GLXY etc sit further out on the risk curve, with more spot exposure.
Across the basket, Meta's resellable excess is just a marginal addition to supply rather than a flood like some will have you believe.
Then if Meta prove internally that selling excess compute is more profitable than ads...
They'll almost certainly increase capex next year to Google/Amazon levels to go build a cloud biz in full.
CryptoElon retweeted
The $meta "news" is why this stupid high 12.50 / gpu-hr price is relevant (as i followed up, NOT my assumption this is going permanent rate). The point of it was that if you have some excess compute short-term while you build out -- as obviously meta does, hence the "no plan!" -- and demand is so high that folks will pay insane prices, why wouldn't you do the "xAI trade" and *buy down your infra cost basis*? $Meta remains v active buyer / builder of compute, the others are short and taking up capex (hence calling $meta about excess supply they could offer). And I am hearing that $meta superintelligence wants to *gun it* given the opportunity; an xAI style cloud is a nice option to help fund the build along the way.
@RHouseResearch had excellent post this AM as well; @lokoyacap too. Worth a read of both
For all the Hyperscaler ROIC doomers, the math currently looks pretty attractive on a new GB300 datacenter: 1.5-2yr cash flow payback / ROI high 30s. Slides below.
TL/DR: hyperscalers can rationally pay up for memory if it improves goodput, efficiency, cost/token etc.
GPU *Appreciation* is of course a swing factor 😜 and pricing may not hold here long-term, but if it does (or stays around here) capex looks attractive.
I'm using $65B / GW to account for HBM re-price next year. (Note: Jensen's 75+ doesn't track w/ what I hear in the field yet)
Key Cost Assumptions: $53Bn of GPU systems + 12bn of site/shell/fabric/power.
Key Price Assumptions: $12.50/GPU-hr, 75% Utilization.
$googl $nvda $amzn $meta $msft
CryptoElon retweeted
In March, Meta signed a $27B cloud services deal with Nebius. In April, Meta signed a $21B expansion of their cloud services agreement with CoreWeave.
Two weeks ago, Bloomberg reported that Meta signed up to rent 1.6GW of data center capacity from Crusoe. And just 3 days ago, the Financial Times reported that Google had capped Meta's use of Gemini because of capacity constraints.
And now all of a sudden, Meta actually has excess capacity?
In reality, I suspect Meta looked at SpaceX's valuation and recent deals to sell excess capacity.. And came to the conclusion that investors will look favorably upon any willingness to monetize their capacity externally.. Which will give their share price some relief, and allow them to raise capital.. Which they'll use to buy and build more compute capacity, lol.
$META $GOOG $NBIS $CRWV
$META is reportedly developing a cloud business to sell access to excess AI compute, per Bloomberg.
The internal initiative is called Meta Compute.
The plans being considered:
AI model access hosted on Meta infrastructure, similar to AWS Bedrock
Raw AI compute capacity, closer to CoreWeave
Developer access to Meta’s data centers, chips, and models
CryptoElon retweeted
Recommended reads for the week
SemiAnalysis — China’s CXMT Is Set to Challenge DRAM Incumbents
Goldman Sachs — Americas Technology: Hardware — Expert Network Series: CPU Server Demand Driven by Refresh, Agentic AI
Morgan Stanley — Old Memory: Better to Buy More
J.P. Morgan — First Principles — AI Power Infrastructure: Following the Power
CryptoElon retweeted
My prediction on $AAPL / CXMT and the future of Memory.
Everyone's panicking about $AAPL lobbying to buy CXMT memory.
I want to show you what the patterns have shown before, using a resource China already ran this exact playbook with: Tungsten.
Memory pricing ripped, $AAPL and the hyperscalers are calling it gouging, and $AAPL is now reportedly leaning on the Trump admin for permission to buy DRAM from China's CXMT to get out from under $MU, $000660 (SK Hynix) and $005930 (Samsung).
The unspoken threat is that China undercuts the West on memory and the whole supercycle unwinds.
We have already seen this movie. It was called Tungsten.
China holds somewhere around 82-90% of global tungsten. The lazy bear case is the exact same arguement that people are now saying about memory: China owns it, China floods it, the price dies. It's a lie.
Here's what actually happened instead.
First, they stopped selling it. Chinese raw APT exports to the West hit zero in early 2026. Not trimmed, ZERO.
And it wasn't just tungsten, it was gallium, germanium, antimony, then sulfuric acid, each one added to the list, the direction only ever tightening.
Then the twist nobody had in their model. The country sitting on 90% of the supply started importing it aggressively.
> Concentrates: imports up 153% yoy, value up 738%.
> APT: imports up 995%, value up 878%.
> Total tungsten IMPORTS: up 98%, value up 336%.
Sit with that. The dominant producer on earth is buying tungsten off Rwanda, Bolivia, Portugal, whoever will sell, and paying up to a 738% premium?
The reason is the whole point: sitting on the reserves is not the same as having spare to sell. Chinese ore grades are falling, quotas got cut, domestic mine auctions failed because the rock wasn't worth digging, and home demand (tungsten wire for solar, defence, tooling, chips) went vertical.
They can't even feed themselves. So they killed exports and turned net importer in the same breath.
Now line that up against memory.
Owning the most on paper means nothing if your own demand swallows everything you make.
"We'll just sell it cheap to the West" only works if you have a surplus, and a net importer paying 738% premiums does not have a surplus. They're fighting for the same scarce supply as everyone else.
CXMT is the same story. The read across the industry is that CXMT can't cover China's own memory demand this decade, let alone export commodity DRAM cheaply into the US. It's the tungsten flood thesis wearing a different jacket, and it'll age just as badly.
And the "cheap Chinese memory" pitch falls apart on the details anyway:
$CXMT sits roughly three years back on process, G4 DDR5 around 1znm-class while the big three run 1a/1b. With no EUV access, that gap on advanced nodes and HBM stacking is structural, not something they close in a couple of quarters.
The "affordable" CXMT DDR5 angle looks like a myth too, the pricing reportedly lands right alongside Samsung, Hynix and $MU.
So even if $AAPL gets its waiver, it pays roughly the same price for a worse, later part, just to wriggle out of an LTA, while handing Huawei the China market advantage (Huawei already taps CXMT and has its own memory fab through the SwaySure JV).
So for anyone holding memory, whether $AAPL actually onboards CXMT or not is basically noise.
CXMT's output is already fully spoken for inside China. Nothing is flooding anywhere. It's a thin price arbitrage trade being marketed as an existential threat, the same way people spent a year waiting for China to turn the tungsten taps back on. They never did.
Marco Rubio quote this in 2022, when $AAPL originally tried to buy from YMTC - "Apple was playing with fire, they are subject to scrutiny like it has never seen from the dereal government" - fast foward 4 years later and hes one of Trumps closest confidants.
And honestly, the $AAPL angle reads as weakness, not strength. When a consumer hardware giant has to lobby its own government for access to a rival's inferior memory because it can't stomach paying for the resource the entire AI stack now runs on, that tells you exactly where the leverage sits, and it isn't with the buyer.
How I'm trading it: these " $AAPL runs to China " headlines are setup to push memory names down short term. That's the gift, not the risk.
Any deep flush in Samsung, Hynix or $MU on this stuff, I will keep dip buying on, because the one fact that actually matters (China can't supply its own memory demand, exactly like tungsten) hasn't moved an inch.
The fud everyone keeps modelling isn't coming back.
Tungsten already ran this experiment and told us what happens when you bet on China flooding something it can't even supply itself.
Memory's about to hand the same lesson to everyone still long the gouging story.
NFA. DYOR. Any pushback is welcome, as I might be wrong.
CryptoElon retweeted
Loved the theme posting by @KawzInvests and @ParadisLabs (follow them)
So I decided to follow this up and go one step further by mapping out the timeline of all these themes and their ramp dates.
RUNNING NOW (Still biddable, but easy money gone)
> agentic AI flipped the CPU:GPU ratio from 1:8 to 1:4 already, server CPU prices up 20% with 6 month lead times
> general server MLCC rides the same CPU revival, already inflecting not waiting
> memory is the real bottleneck, DRAM revenue +303% in 26 and NAND +208%, squeeze runs into 27-28
SWEET SPOT (Inflection point)
> high end MLCC at 20+ week lead times, Murata order inquiries at 2x supply capacity, OEM price hikes land next quarter
> advanced packaging scales with the HBM4 and Rubin ramp
> liquid cooling is not a sleeper, Rubin mandates full liquid so it inflects with the GPUs, not after
> CPO and 1.6T optics scale hard with Rubin, Foxconn already shipping CPO switch from Q3, 10k units in 26
FRONTRUN (scale into H2 26)
> SiC and GaN power ride the 800V push, autos already matured the cost curve
> gallium is the GaN feedstock, upstream of the entire power buildout
> 800V HVDC hits mass deployment with Kyber in 27, supply chain gears up through H2 26 (Vertiv launches H2 26)
> 600kW racks arrive with Kyber in 27, the whole power chain rerates ahead of it
WATCH ONLY (too early to size)
> humanoids are a future demand pool, not a 26-27 trade
> 6G is a late decade story
> photonic memory still early stage
> quantum prototypes in 27, IBM fault tolerance target 29, Foxconn commercialization around 30, so the frontrun window is H2 28 to H1 29
Do not become dilution for Quantum. If you want a 1hr rundown on the future of Quantum I'd recommend you watch the @MartinShkreli and @StockSavvyShay debate.
CryptoElon retweeted
[LONG FORM] I really think people are underestimating how much of a role Bitcoin/crypto is playing in this China v US relationship.
Rather than try to align with the USA's crypto push, China chose the reverse path - obvious now given the strained relationship, but it actually started in the days just before Trump’s inauguration.
1) "China" in the weeks leading up to Trump getting into office, sold $20B of BTC from the PlusToken scam.
Weirdly, the CCP said it was ‘transferred to the national treasury’ without clarifying if it was sold. These BTC were seized almost 6 years prior - bizarre enough timing for the "sale".
2) Everyone is talking about Gold. PBOC resumed buying gold in November 2024 and has bought Gold for 11 consecutive months, one of their largest runs, ever. A mix of trying to de-dollarize but also to take the physical gold over the "digital gold" narrative which the Trump Admin are pushing
Listen to this talk from the Digital Asset Summit that just ended, from @fejau_inc
A little more crypto...:
3) When the NYT are putting out multi-week investigations into how the US are using crypto (+ World Liberty) and an negotiating tool for deals in the UAE on top of Forbes citing multiple articles of how almost 60% of Trumps wealth is in crypto: of course Xi will go after that.
We all know Trump and his clan are doing crazy things on the blockchain (Crime wise), but Im very much of the opinion the expose of the Trumps soon/at end of term will be detrimental to the space.
4.1) This actually didnt get much public notice but there was a desk in China that sold $1b - $1.5b quite frantically in the week starting 29th September.
4.2) There has been *numerous* Chinese related wallets, that have sold a massive chunk of BTC the last few weeks, some from a Chinese mining farm from 2012-2014. There is still a wallet, which @mlmabc was very vocal on, that still holds 43k BTC.
4.3) The "insider" wallet, that was outed by @eyeonchains as Garrett Jin, Garrett is Chinese and also traded at China Construction Bank and also set up Da Yo Trading...
4.4) Remember in early August that Chinese brokers were asked to stop endorsement of *ALL* stablecoins? China clearly feel threatened, heavily.
This is *extremely* surface level and im also aware how "obvious" most of this is, and most of you know this already, but the point of this was:
- to just make things a little clearer
- provide a little clarity on how much a role crypto and BTC playing in this "trade war" and strained relationship
Im aware it sounds quite conspiracy like but it definitely a little bit of merit - especially with every single point above can be backed by credibile on chain data + reputable publication reports.
Again, im just someone who an idiot who trades markets, mainly crypto and I like to put thoughts into words sometimes.
CryptoElon retweeted
E136: How to Build Wealth in an AI Economy - and The Role of Crypto - @SeliniCapital Founder and CIO
@gametheorizing breaks down why the concept of retirement is obsolete in a world of AI, fiat dilution, and exponential wealth creation - and how crypto is the cleanest hedge we have.
Timestamps
0:00 Introduction
1:59 Partnerships @JupiterExchange, @KASTcard, @bitwise, @SuiNetwork, @Mantle_Official, @ForzaBitcoin
3:00 Surviving on Five Hours
4:31 Years of Growth
5:28 Who is Jordi Alexander?
7:22 No Voice in My Head
9:52 Self Custody with @Trezor
10:45 Beyond Money and Work
13:23 Chip on the Shoulder
15:38 Moving Continents, Changing Self
17:12 Why $100K Feels Poor
19:05 When Money Stops Working
25:00 Judgement is Currency
27:05 Why Retirement Doesn’t Exist
30:18 Why Old Money Fades
33:27 Being Valuable to Society
35:03 Why Cash Loses Value
39:30 Why Stocks Can’t Beat Inflation
42:00 Crypto and the Next Frontier
44:03 Where Is Wealth Truly Safe?
48:53 Why Bitcoin Is the Bet
54:55 Altcoin Cycles Explained
56:57 Why Most Traders Lose
1:00:14 The Financial Death Wish
1:04:50 Winners, Losers, and NPCs
1:09:21 Clicks vs Credibility in Crypto
1:13:13 Rethinking the Retirement Mindset
1:14:33 Becoming Economically Productive
1:17:30 EQ and IQ
1:18:16 Escaping Survival Mode
1:20:40 Wealth Without Luck
1:21:26 Judging Who to Trust
1:25:27 Inefficiency is Opportunity
1:27:28 From Survival to Superpowers
1:29:34 Scaling Beyond Survival
1:31:02 Playing Offense
1:33:49 Bitcoin: Offense or Defense?
1:34:55 Beyond Four Year Cycles
1:36:57 Early in the Game
1:37:58 Destroying your Ego
1:42:57 Small Errors, Big Consequences
1:46:01 A Timeless Thesis
1:48:36 The Cost of Burnout
1:51:09 Protecting Your Time
1:52:47 Poker Productivity
1:55:14 Knowing When to Let Go
1:57:45 Seeing How the River Changes
Its always funny to me when someone asks me what I do and I say crypto and they answer "Oh you are a crypto millionaire" in a dismissive tone
meanwhile mfer cries over only having 2 days off or having to stay at the office till 9 pm
My guy you wouldnt last a single day in the world we live in, i slept 4 hours total this weekend, i rode bags down 30% in a day down millions, i had monkey jpegs through the ftx crash, i bought during the luna crash
put some fkn respect on what we do, its 24/7 its emotionally grueling and we dont have lunch breaks we eat at our screens we take our laptops to the bathroom to not miss something we wake up at 4 am to check any plays
there is no harder way to win than doing this day in and day out, and if you lose no one is there to say here is your weekly salary.