Countylineforecast.com now active! Browse all senate battleground states, county-by-county. I’ll be updating the site every few days, adding cool new features as we go!

County Line Forecast: Monday Update 🗳️ Senate control
🔵 Classic: Dems 70.8% → 74.4% Avg. Seats (with Osborn): Dem 52 Rep 48 🔵 Plus: Dems 70.2% → 70.4% Avg. Seats (with Osborn): Dem 51 Rep 49 Generic ballot
🔵 D+9 (50.8–41.8) Key polls
🟢 NE: Osborn +7 (Concord, D-sponsored)
🔴 ME: Collins +0.5 (Trafalgar)
🔵 MI: El-Sayed +2.5 (MSU/YouGov)
🔵 NC: Cooper +9 (Quantus)
⚪ TX: Paxton 45, Talarico 45 (Rasmussen)
 Biggest moves
🔴 NE (Classic): 26.1 → 31.5
🔴 MT (Plus): 10.7 → 14.4
🔵 OH (Plus): 60.2 → 56.6
🔴 MS (Plus): 2.7 → 6.1
🔵 NH (Classic): 90.4 → 93.1
🔵 TX (Plus): 55.7 → 53.5 🔴 Nebraska: the models split. A Democratic-sponsored poll has Osborn +7. Classic discounts it to about +5 and Osborn jumps to 31.5%. Plus also discounts the pollster's own lean and reads it closer to +3, so Osborn sits at 20.5%. That 11-point gap is the biggest disagreement on the map. 🔵 Ohio: Brown slipped in both models, more in Plus (56.6%) than Classic (72.8%). Plus now follows the recent trend in each race's polling, and Ohio's last few polls have been softer for Brown than the ones before. 🔵 Texas: Rasmussen has it tied. Classic still gives Talarico 58%; Plus is down to 53.5%. Both say coin flip with a thumb on the blue side. Under the hood this weekend: Classic now discounts polls paid for by a party or campaign, the way Plus always has, and counts Rasmussen and Trafalgar as Republican-leaning firms. That's most of Classic's 3.6-point jump, since those firms poll the close states a lot. Plus now applies a pollster's house effect in proportion to how much it has polled, so one poll can't brand a firm, and its averages follow the trend. The two models disagree more than they have all cycle, and that's the point of running two. 8 days out. Check your state 👇
countylineforecast.com

This only ended up being R’s 3rd best day in EV, which is pretty surprising considering where they were this morning. Dems have held their own in early voting and Rs may struggle to get close to their final ‘22 EV IP margin: ‘22 margin: R+21.8 ( R+ 504,892 votes) ‘26 margin: R+7.6 (R+125,093 votes) Rs need to make up a lot of ground, and are running out of time to do it.

Why tf do we continue to get NC polling, but haven’t had high-quality polling of Kansas in over 10 days? It’s getting pretty ridiculous.

As expected the EV IP vote has shifted bluer as the day has gone on. This may not even end up being Reps’ best day of the cycle. We shall see 👀

Full transparency, because I try to be fair and balanced, (unlike our MAGA friends): Thru noon, Rs are crushing the IPEV for Monday. This is what you want to see if you want Reps to claw back towards their normal margins before Eday. As others have noted, the rest of the day favors Dems, so we’ll see what the final margin is for Reps, but they’re showing up today.

Or….maybe, just maybe…Dems are showing up to vote in droves and low propensity Reps are staying home?

He apparently didn’t read the few lines above that graphic, however. That YouGov poll shows DEMS leading in “definitely will vote or have already voted.” And those those who “may or may not” vote is led by Reps. It doesn’t take a PhD to realize he’s making the case for the Dem enthusiasm gap and doesn’t even know it 😂😂😂

Here we go with the cannibalizing argument again. This is the exact cope Dems had in the 2024 election.

For comparison, mail is 0.1 point and 0.2 points bluer this cycle compared to 2024 and 2022 respectively. But IPEV is is nearly 12 points (‘24) and 14 points (‘22) bluer this cycle. County comparisons below:

Do you know how bad EV needs to be for Reps for mainstream pundits to start saying stuff like this?