@WinWithJMC
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JMC Analytics & Polling Founder/Owner Award winning pollster/4x finalist (C&Es Reed Awards) Political strategist/Numbers guy
Louisiana
Joined October 2012
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EARLY VOTE TRACKER, "APPLES TO APPLES"
Yours truly went back to his 2022 EV spreadhseet, and in states where (at this point in time) there was both 2022 and 2026 data,a "side by side" was done. This is the truest possible picture of how things are going with the EV data we have.
EARLY VOTING FACTOID (9/26)
Of all the known, tallied EVs so far (340,192), 54% are from Virginia ALONE (182,908).
NORTH CAROLINA INTERIM VOTER REGISTRATION CHANGES (9/19-26)
Last week,Dems outregistered Reps 2,179-320, while Inds gained 5,526 voters. This caused the GOP plurality to narrow from 7,043 to 5,184 voters, even as Inds "remain #1" with a 40.8% (and growing) plurality of
registered voters.
Semi-hot JMC take: since Reps have lost 53% of their plurality in four months' time, it's possible that Dems will retake their plurality lead over Reps before Election Day, given that Dem gains are occurring regularly
(2/)
JMC'S EARLY VOTE TRACKER (9/25)
Obligatory ET Surgeon General's Warning: if you can't handle exposure to early voting DATA (with, eventually, analysis based on data and not feels or "hot takes"), you are advised to exit this thread IMMEDIATELY.
(1/)
At this point in time in 2022, 114K voted (57-21% D/R) (ET Surgeon General's warning - this is not a perfect "apples to apples" comparison).
As data comes in, this is the "calm before the storm" before 10/5, when voting commences in CA, ME, MT, and NE. On 10/6, we'll be
(3/)
EARLY VOTING FACTOID
Of all the known, tallied EVs so far (299,395), nearly half are from Virginia ALONE (147,630)
PARTIAL ILLINOIS EV NUMBERS
Mail returned: 573
In Person: 4,018
(Data from the larger counties/Chicago not in)
JMC'S EARLY VOTE TRACKER (9/24)
Obligatory ET Surgeon General's Warning: if you can't handle exposure to early voting DATA (with, eventually, analysis based on data and not feels or "hot takes"), you are advised to exit this thread IMMEDIATELY.
(1/)
states). At this point in time in 2022, 89K voted (56-19% D/R) (ET Surgeon General's warning - this is not a perfect "apples to apples" comparison).
IL early voting started yesterday (no data available yet). Then it'll be quiet again until 10/5, when voting commences in CA
(3/)
JMC found 17 pollsters who between late August and this afternoon polled the same jurisdiction/issue > once. His findings:
(1) The generic Congressional vote moved towards the Dems by 1-3 points
(2) In general, President Trump's underwater job approval declined further
(2/)
