🗣 Oliver Parsons ➡️ CA since ‘09 • ex-JPM ♦️ Mike Rothman ➡️ 42 yrs oil research + 40 yrs OPEC • ex-ISI energy head • ex-Merril Lynch energy head• #1 ranked II
Miami, FL 📍New York, NY
Joined November 2017
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Focus on the data
Thank you 👇
youtu.be/YAQcZpVnIZM
"You Can't Own Enough Energy"
Mike Rothman of Cornerstone Analytics is one of the few remaining oil Analysts willing to take a stand. Kudos to him. A must watch.
youtube.com/watch?v=YAQcZpVn…
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
Mike Rothman is the GOAT in energy.
@CornerstoneOil
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Crude prices are +30% in 3 weeks. We told clients the bear victory lap was nonsensical & just a huge bear trap
Brent is now over $90/b and the global oil balances will keep tightening dramatically
Listen to the industry talking heads at your own risk
Enjoy friends 👇
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Crude prices are +30% in 3 weeks. We told clients the bear victory lap was nonsensical & just a huge bear trap
Brent is now over $90/b and the global oil balances will keep tightening dramatically
Listen to the industry talking heads at your own risk
Enjoy friends 👇
Wall Street keeps promising you an oil glut that the physical market says doesn't exist.
Paper futures are dragging prices lower while the world has drawn down close to a billion barrels of actual inventory, and the spare capacity everyone leans on is a fraction of what OPEC claims.
Mike Rothman of Cornerstone Analytics has spent his career counting the real barrels instead of watching the screen, and his conclusion in my latest interview:
You can't own enough energy.
We break down the decade of underinvestment, the Iran and Hormuz chokepoint, and why energy equities are set to outperform the commodity itself.
Check out the full interview + summary:
substack.com/@georgenoble/no…
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The consensus being misinformed is the whole point. Reality vs the perception of reality. Data integrity. @ericnuttall preach brother
🔮🫡
What if we are being misinformed in order to keep a lid on the oil price? What if talks are actually NOT going well and a peace treaty is NOT in fact imminent? What if there is no actual "cease fire" given ongoing kinetic action by both sides? What if Exxon and Chevron are right and working inventory levels are about to be breached in the coming weeks resulting in a price spike? What if the Strait does NOT in fact open, while everyone believes it will because "it has to"? What then???
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
Let's ignore the additional sea mine emplacing yesterday and just go with it..."the days away" peace deal is signed and the Strait is going to "open." What is the most bearish scenario for oil???
🛢️the most optimistic scenario floated is the Strait will gradually begin to open in 30 days. That takes us to ~July 1st. By then, we will have forfeited ~1.4BN barrels of production
🛢️Sultan Al-Jaber of UAE last week said it would take at least 4 months to return to 80% of normal supply. This suggests ~585MM barrels of additional forfeiture amounting to a staggering 2BN barrels of cumulative losses, and that is now the likely best-case scenario
🛢️We need to assume no damage to productive capacity from fields forcibly shut-in while the workers were dodging drones and cruise missiles. Iraq most at risk. Large oilfield service co. speculating >5% of total shut-ins at risk = ~700,000bbl/d potential losses. Assume zero.
🛢️We need to assume that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are okay paying an "environmental tax" for SofH access to the IRGC who for the past 88 days have been directly attacking them, otherwise we cannot go back to pre-war levels and workarounds are not enough to offset this loss of flow.
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
Amazing presentation on the oil market with Mike Rothman from @CornerstoneOil youtu.be/QcyP1m-gjpE?si=axA3…
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
56 minutes of pure Truth that will surprise nearly all Americans and even WallStreet. Wake up with this masterclass on oil
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
This is terrific
youtu.be/QcyP1m-gjpE?si=eFXk…
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
This is a perfectly timed & fact filled interview between a 40 year expert in the crude oil market (Mike Rothman) and the legendary resource investor Rick Rule. On a day when crude oil spiked >$8.50/ bbl! well done and much appreciated.
“The conversation between Mike Rothman and Rick Rule challenges mainstream narratives around oversupply and instead presents a case for a tightening market. From flawed demand forecasts to declining investment, the episode sets the stage for a potentially explosive shift in energy prices.”
Rick Rule & Mike Rothman Warn Oil Could Hit $200 Faster Than Anyone Expects
👉 Watch the Full Episode: youtu.be/QcyP1m-gjpE
📩 Mike Roth Email: [email protected]
📩 Rick Rule: ruleinvestmentmedia.com
Rick Rule, one of the most respected natural resource investors of the past 50 years, and Mike Rothman, founder of Cornerstone Analytics and a veteran energy market analyst.
Recording Date 4-28-2026. In this episode, Rick and Mike into a bold and controversial thesis that the world is not facing an oil glut but a structural supply crisis. Mike brings decades of experience studying oil supply, demand, and geopolitics, while Rick offers a capital allocator’s perspective shaped by cycles across mining, energy, and commodities. Together, they explore whether the world is on the brink of a major energy bull market. The conversation challenges mainstream narratives around oversupply and instead presents a case for a tightening market. From flawed demand forecasts to declining investment, the episode sets the stage for a potentially explosive shift in energy prices.
Key Insights in this episode
✅ Global oil demand continues to rise despite higher prices, defying traditional economic theory
✅ Underinvestment of over 3.6 trillion dollars has structurally reduced future oil supply
✅ Non OPEC production growth is slowing while shale output faces steep decline rates
✅ Inventory drawdowns contradict the widespread belief in a global oil glut
✅ Geopolitical disruptions have removed over 10 million barrels per day from supply
✅ Energy equities are still in the middle phase of a multi year secular bull market
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
Very interesting interview from a few weeks ago. The @CornerstoneOil base case before supply disruptions was for Brent to be $92 per bbl in 12/26. Disruptiongs so far increased that 12/26 estimate by about $16, rising rapidly from here. Others had a 12/26 base case near $60.
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
Mike Rothman @CornerstoneOil. Always no nonsense solid research when he appears, which is a rare.
Can Anyone Predict Future Oil Supply? youtu.be/yol1OJaGvOU?si=NzZR… via @YouTube
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
Rothman dissects global inventories with precision. His methodology clarifies why I am rotating capital out of Canadian oil into uranium. Cornerstone tracks physical market realities better than consensus narratives.
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Podcast from last week 👇
A recent podcast featuring Mike Rothman of Cornerstone Analytics, arguably the best oil analyst in the game. @CornerstoneOil
youtu.be/yol1OJaGvOU?si=RZuY…
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
Adam Pankratz: After being gaslit for years, suddenly, we're told there's a business case for LNG nationalpost.com/opinion/ada…
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
The oil market just broke in half and nobody priced it.
295 million barrels that the IEA said were sitting in storage turned out to never exist. A single historical revision flipped a 220-million-barrel surplus into a 75-million-barrel deficit across 2022-2024.
The data your models run on is structurally wrong.
Here is what's actually happening beneath $67 Brent:
A shadow fleet of 978-3,300 tankers now carries 18-20% of global capacity. They don't report to any OECD data system. Seven percent of world crude flows through channels invisible to every major forecasting model.
China imported a record 13.18 million barrels per day in December. Refinery throughput was 14.7 million.
The gap: 2.67 million barrels PER DAY absorbed into strategic storage. That's a national security operation at industrial scale, and it's almost completely opaque.
Meanwhile:
Diesel cracks in Northwest Europe blew through $30/bbl. Permian Tier 1 acreage is 60% depleted. The EIA forecasts US crude production declining in both 2026 and 2027. Russia's National Welfare Fund lasts 12-18 months at $40 Urals. Saudi Arabia's true fiscal breakeven is $108-111/bbl, not the $90 the IMF publishes.
Put options have traded at a premium to calls 93% of the time over the past decade.
Upside optionality is the cheapest it's been in a generation.
The $60 barrel is not an equilibrium. It is a fault line.
Full 12,000-word institutional breakdown with four specific trade constructions, invalidation signals, and the 20 fault lines beneath the price — link below. open.substack.com/pub/shanak…
Cornerstone Analytics🛢Macro Oil 🗣 Oliver Parsons retweeted
Sure, it's an OPEC perspective...but @CornerstoneOil has been on top of the problem of under reporting barrels for years. Be skeptical - the @IEA has their own agenda. If you're only following the IEA you're not getting the real story.
Finding Nemo, the IEA discovers its ‘missing barrels’
Article by HE Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General, Tuesday, 20 May 2025.
Read here➡️ opec.org/sgcorner-detail/15-…
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For those (finally) realizing the IEA is KNOWINGLY chronically understating global oil demand data
Review our comment from Feb 2022
Last week’s upward demand revision was only a small fraction of the missing oil
Global oil demand is still higher than reported
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MISSING OIL 🛢
ARAB NEWS
MIKE ROTHMAN
FEB 14, 2022
The Global Oil Balance is Much Tighter Than is Believed
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#oilprices #CrudeOil #energycrisis #opec #ESG #GreenEnergy #fintwit #eft #oott #energy #oilandgas #SaudiArabia #RussiaUkraine #RussiaCrisis #ElectricVehicles