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Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.
— Sun Tzu
Braden Brock retweeted
To my mind this tariff mania feels the same as a major spike in oil prices.
Everyone’s talking about how inflationary it is. Sure, that’s probably true for as long as the consumer can afford higher prices.
But if/when it makes the consumer go broke — the tariffs pivot from inflationary to disinflationary (or even deflationary) real quick.
CC: The summer of 2008
Braden Brock retweeted
I don't think there's a professional athlete in the world who makes dominance look as effortless and casual as Nikita Kucherov.
Braden Brock retweeted
Kuch just tied Stamkos for the most points in Lightning history with this goal!!!⚡🚨
It’s interesting to reminisce on the first few years of the 2020’s. Specifically the rise of ESG, the dominance of $ARKK, and the whole consensus “peak oil” thing.
More recently it feels like the only limits to global oil consumption are on the supply (chain) side. For me, it increasingly feels like we’ll need a provocative price signal (higher) to help straighten out some of the imbalance.
Jevons paradox:
Braden Brock retweeted
Investors have spent much of the past week debating the revenue numbers coming out of OpenAI and Anthropic, trying to determine what they mean for the AI trade. I wonder whether we’re paying too much attention to those numbers and not enough to what’s happening in the bond market.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen for seven consecutive months. In data going back to 1962, we’ve seen a streak this long only once before, in the late 1970s.
We went back through history to examine what happened after extended periods of rising yields. In eleven comparable episodes, yields generally paused or declined for periods ranging from two to twelve months. In four cases, the streak actually marked the peak in yields.
I find that interesting because of what happened in the bond market recently. Following the latest inflation report, the 10-year briefly reached 5.30percent before reversing to close around 5.18percent. Despite another inflation surprise, the bond market struggled to sustain higher yields.
I’ve argued for higher yields for some time, and I haven’t abandoned that longer-term view. Strong nominal growth, persistent fiscal deficits, and enormous demand for capital could keep upward pressure on interest rates. But after seven consecutive months of increases, the possibility of a pause deserves attention.
And that could matter considerably more for the AI trade than the latest revenue forecasts. Semiconductor stocks have experienced four separate corrections of 10 percent or more since peaking in June.
Forward valuation multiples have contracted roughly 35 percent, even as earnings estimates have continued rising. The market has become considerably less willing to pay for that growth, despite continued strength in demand for compute.
The broader equity market has experienced something similar. The S&P 500’s forward valuation multiple has declined from roughly 23 times to 19 times, while earnings estimates have continued rising. If bond yields stabilize or begin declining, investors may become more willing to pay higher multiples for those earnings.
Positioning could reinforce that move. Hedge fund net exposures have fallen to their lowest levels since the Liberation Day selloff, despite the S&P 500 trading near record highs. If yields begin declining and equities move higher, investors who have reduced exposure may find themselves chasing the market again.
For now, I’m watching whether the recent reversal in the 10-year yield marks the beginning of a period of consolidation. We could see yields decline 40–50 basis points without changing the longer-term argument for higher interest rates. But even a temporary pause could be enough to change the direction of equities.
That strikes me as a more useful signal for the next leg of the AI trade than another debate about how quickly the labs are growing their revenue.
Braden Brock retweeted
How did going for a walk become something that apparently needs expensive clothing, an app and a detailed breakdown of the distance covered?
Braden Brock retweeted
“I’m Pointing at the Moon and You’re Looking at my Finger”- Philip Pilkington
Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist, investment professional, author of: The Collapse of Global Liberalism, and host of the Multipolarity podcast. He talks escalation of information war, energy lockdowns, Iran, inflation, bond yields break away from oil, auto loans, France, AI, and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!
@philippilk @DarioCpx @DavidBCollum
Braden Brock retweeted
#Oil is holding up strong, even though flows out of Hormuz are back near pre-crisis levels. Even the SPR release by European countries caused hardly any downside for crude oil and diesel. The oil market is facing a structural upward repricing. Signs of easing in flows hardly matter to the oil market anymore. The market can now gradually price in that strategic reserves need to be refilled, which should structurally lift demand.
Well, bond volatility is back to a more sensible level. Time to take this one off.
Tx @ConvexityMaven for giving the common folk access to these products.
$PFIX $RFIX
Braden Brock retweeted
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK HAS BEEN VISITING BIG BANKS TO REVIEW THEIR LOANS TO PRIVATE CREDIT FIRMS, WITH FED OFFICIALS GOING INTO JPMORGAN, WELLS FARGO, BARCLAYS AND MORGAN STANLEY WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT EXPOSURE, RISK MANAGEMENT AND COLLATERAL QUALITY - SEMAFOR
Braden Brock retweeted
2026, day 274
Good morning from Asia - and more headline fuel about fuel and for more war, with very few for more peace.
GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥
‘Loud blasts heard in Houthi-run Yemeni capital Sanaa amid reported Saudi attack’ (AFP);
‘Pentagon prepares for potential surge of naval forces in Middle East’ (WaPo);
‘U.S. sent more Patriots to protect Saudi, Qatari energy sites’ (Axios);
‘Iran readies harder retaliation if attacked as diplomacy faces long
odds’ (Reuters);
‘U.S. Pressure Campaign Leaves Iranian Tankers Stranded in Asian Waters’ (WSJ);
‘Netanyahu says Omani copilot who tried to bring down flight ‘underwent Islamist radical indoctrination’’ (ToI);
‘UK police arrest dual UK-Iranian man in Fairford air base investigation’ (Reuters);
‘Syria denies contacts with Hezbollah, says it deals only with Lebanese state’ (Al Arabiya);
‘Pakistan launches deadly air strikes on Afghanistan’ (BBC);
‘Egypt's military aid from the United States will no longer carry human rights conditions’ (Reuters);
‘Blasts heard in Addis Ababa as Ethiopia conflict widens in the north’ (AJ);
‘Eritrea severs diplomatic ties with Ethiopia in tit-for-tat move’ (AJ);
‘US sanctions Kremlin-backed fintech A7 for allegedly assisting Iran’ (FT);
‘Ukraine Fires Hard-to-Stop Ballistic Missile for First Time’ (WSJ);
‘Russia makes extreme threats against Nato countries over
Kaliningrad’ (FT);
‘EU should be braver in countering Russia’s rhetoric, Polish Lt Gen says’ (Rapporteur);
‘Western militaries are undermining Ukraine's defence, experts say’ (AJ);
‘Kubilius: Russian attack on arms factory would trigger NATO military response’ (Politico);
‘Europe braces for ‘severe hybrid attacks’ from Russia, says Friedrich Merz’ (FT);
‘How Europe can stall Russia's hybrid war’ (FT);
‘It’s war, not hybrid attacks, says Estonian foreign minister’ (Politico);
‘Pentagon excludes key allies from
NATO meeting’ (Politico);
‘US sees Chinese invasion of
Taiwan unlikely next year despite
2027 timeline, sources say’ (Reuters);
‘Why US Himars missile shortfalls raise stakes for a potential Taiwan Strait conflict’ (SCMP);
GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛
‘Democratic Senators Challenge Pentagon's Venezuela Oil Deal’ (WSJ);
‘Trump demands Europe release emergency diesel reserves’ (Telegraph);
‘European countries agree on ‘assertive’ response to US diesel pressure’ (Politico);
‘EU countries in crisis talks over release of diesel stocks’ (FT);
‘Britain in talks over releasing emergency diesel stockpiles’ (Telegraph);
‘UK courts Berlin for fighter jet role after collapse of Franco-German project’ (Politico);
‘Germany: We’ll do everything we can to get Britain back into EU’ (Telegraph);
‘Chinas Tencent leases 100,000 chips from Oracle to accelerate
Al push’ (FT);
‘US slows aircraft-part exports to China as Trump seeks leverage in trade negotiations, sources say’ (Reuters);
‘Japanese companies exit China in record numbers’ (FT);
‘Modi's India takes on Trump more openly, from 'terrorism' to tariffs’ (AJ):
POLITICS: 🗳️
‘French presidential race remains open despite Le Pen lead’ (Rapporteur);
‘France school protests escalate into ‘urban violence’ as PM calls crisis cabinet meeting’ (Guardian);
‘As Germany’s far right rises, weakened Merz looks to project strength and resolve against Putin’ (Politico);
‘Burnham preparing for May election, claims Badenoch’ (Telegraph);
‘Burnham’s reopening of Brexit debate is ‘biggest boost in my career’, says Farage’ (Guardian);
MARKETS: 📈
‘The Global Bond Rout Is Getting Messy’ (WSJ);
‘US mortgage rates jump the most in four years in blow to housing market’ (FT);
‘An AI sovereign wealth fund isn’t progressive — it’s techno-imperialism’ (FT) - “Accruing income at home from land and power abroad has an old name: empire”;
‘EU questions Binance over continued operations despite wind-down order’ (FT);
‘Labor ‘crazy’ to push superannuation into US lamb: Wilson’ (AFR)
Braden Brock retweeted
My eyes were wet from start to finish. I thought of being little in a big world & watching my son's first tries at this mad game. ESPN's Open to the NHL season is beautiful. I didn't expect to cry today-this is stunning. There's nothing like this sport. We at ESPN love the sport as you do. ❤️ Enjoy.



























