I get the Anthropic expectations miss - but when you stack OAI and Anthropic together looks like steady MoM $$ growth...

What do all the share gainers in AI accelerators ($AMD $OAI $GOOGL) have in common… they work with $CLS!

I have spent money money on consultant calls with to TX power and political consultants than I care to admit. My key takeaways for $HUT 1) Extremely likely that Beacon Point will get energized before the end of 3Q27 (worse case) with a 1Q / early 2Q energization date more likely. 2) If they get power by early 2Q the company can still hit its target monetization date in 3Q. 3) If the monetization date is delayed by a few months it’s not a big deal - every month is $44m of EBITDA of one-time loss. 4) In the low probability scenario that Beacon Point is a complete zero the company has a lot of other shots on goal and the stock could be okay (it would go down a TON first!) $HUT $WUFL $CIFR $APLD

Sadly the CCP has been having a field day with our idiot politicians the last few weeks

Well that escalated quickly! $HUT announced another deal - 2nd phase of the Beacon Point deal with $NVDA. Same terms as phase 1 - 15 year initial term, triple net, $1.86 NOI/MW ($653 average annual), fully backed by NVDA. At 19x EV/EBITDA the equity value of this deal is worth $65 per share. All in $HUT now has $1.75B of contracted NOI over 15 year terms with renewals, triple net fully backed by NVDA and GOOGL. Adjusted for future capex the stock now has an EV of $21B so trades at 12x stabilized NOI and 15x first year NOI (2028/2029 as these facilities ramp). So the stock is trading at half the multiple that private market DCs are trading at (27x)

So much drama on here. Half my feed thinks that the hyperscalers are going to cut capex dramatically and crater AI stocks, the other half thinks that they are going to go deep into debt and spend way more than expected. My gut tells me its somewhere in between. Hyperscaler EBITDA is expected to grow +25% over the next several years. Lets just say that capex grows inline with EBITDA growth going forward - so the hyperscalers run FCF breakeven with net cash on the balance sheet. Seems like a responsible way to run their businesses while continuing to invest aggressively. In this world - the AI capex complex would grow revenue grows at 25% going forward (potentially more with incremental demand from enterprise + sovereign). Presumably earnings would grow faster due to operating leverage and capital returns (buybacks). So lets call it 25-30% EPS growth. On average the AI stocks trade at ~27x P/E... so as a whole I would call them fairly priced. Obviously there will be some that out/under grow, product cycles within this, etc. But as a whole the trade seems fairly priced and still fast growing so decent returns to be made my holding multiples flat to downish while EPS compounds at 25-30%

Looking at my computer monitors and seeing a sea of red contrasted against a slew of positive fundamental data points I see opportunity. For a while, I have been a huge fan of the former BTC miners turned data center developers $HUT $WUFL $APLD $CIFR These companies are signing multi-decade triple net leases with all payments fully backed by the full faith and creditworthiness of the hyperscalers. Relative to most other parts of the AI trade - investors are not taking on multiple and duration risk in these names. These are stable, long-term contracted cash flows. Eventually these companies will convert to REITs and be bought up by investors who have no idea what a GPU is! Right now these companies are trading at a material discount to the deals that they have already signed. Per my math, on average the 4x names are trading at 18x EV/EBITDA, a massive discount to what data centers are transacting for in the private markets (25-27x EV/EBITDA). Even if we assume discounted multiples (low-20x) I see +35-40% upside in these names just from the DCs being built and these becoming "stabilized assets" Furthermore, these companies have more power to sell and power is a very hot commodity these days! There has been $51B+ of total deal value announced YTD. An average size deal these days results in ~$8.5B of equity value created which works out to +70-80% upside in each name at current prices. $HUT $WULF $APLD $CIFR

The AI trade has pulled back ~20% over the last few weeks - inline with the numerous pullbacks that the trade has had along the way (ex DeepSeek + Tariffs in early 2024). This presents yet another compelling entry point. In the face of weak price action there have been a number of positive developments: 1/ Silicon Data showing contracted rental rates continuing to increase in July + their spot price indexes (B200) increasing +10% over the last week alone 2/ Anthropic ARR data (Yipit) hitting $69B and accelerating to +28% MoM growth! 3/ $META headlines saying that their compute will 2x in 2026 and 2027 and the street dramatically revising up capex estimates 4/ $META and $SPCX models coming out of nowhere and giving $OAI and $ANTH models a run for their money

Whiplash! Last week $META was expected to cut capex, this morning looks like they are going to 2x it! Back to AI risk on!

The data points keep stacking up that the $META "excess compute" scare is a nothing burger. Yesterday $WULF announced a record sized and priced (for a BTC miners) compute deal with Anthropic. NOI/MW $2.01 versus $HUT previous highwater mark of $1.86, total deal value record $19B, and unlevered yield on cost ~18% versus $HUT previous highwater mark of ~17%. Today the same guys (Bloomberg) who created the scare wrote "Despite those efforts, Meta is still hungry for even more computing power, the spokesperson said. It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with CoreWeave Inc., Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Oracle Corp., among others."

Asking all the smart people on Twitter $MU $SNDK $DRAM Came across this chart from UBS that shows memory is going from 13% of hyperscale capex in 2025 -> 33% in 2026 -> 57% in 2027. #1 - Is this accurate / true? #2 - how is this sustainable? $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT have some of the smartest engineers in the world, surely their #1 priority will quickly become figuring out ways to reduce memory costs!

$HUT adding another $10B deal with a second IG hyperscale tenant at a second location! Despite the +165% move in the stock 🥳over the last 4x months there is still lots of room to go. The second two phases of $HUT River Bend site is worth another $124/share and the second phase of TX site (today's announcement) worth another $45/share!

I had the opportunity to meet with $RDDT in a large group meeting for institutional investors this week. RDDT is a stock I have owned since the IPO and I have been consistently pleased with their execution. RDDT’s business is firing on all cylinders. Advertising revenue grew +75% last quarter – growth was broad based across all verticals, geographies, and advertiser objectives. Growth is being driven by a variety of levers – primary user and engagement growth (high quality growth) and to a lesser extent increasing ad load and higher ad pricing. The company positively highlighted the traction they see in performance advertising, which is over 50% of total advertising revenues and growing >100% YoY. To be fair, RDDT includes both mid-funnel (lead-gen type advertising) and true bottom the funnel (immediate conversion type advertising) as performance advertising. My channel checks point to significant strength in mid-funnel with true bottom-funnel direct response still being in the early days. RDDT management spoke optimistically about the traction they are seeing with true direct response ad units, like dynamic product ads and shopping ads, and were excited about the rollout of app download ads in 2026. The bottom line here is that growth and momentum appear to be highly durable. The company runs an extremely tight ship – one of the best teams in the sector (I know it’s a low bar!) when it comes to expense discipline and capital allocation. EBITDA margins expanded to 38% in 2025 from 23% in 2024 and the company has been profitable on a GAAP basis for six quarters in a row. During the meeting management pointed to more of the same – we should expect 50%-ish incremental margins going forward and RDDT is heading towards being a 50% EBITDA margin company over the medium term. For 2025 RDDT scored a 108% on the rule-of-40% score, one of the best in the market. The one rub on the story is around user growth. After some turbulence in 1H25 RDDT is on more solid footing but trends are still just okay; total daily users grew +19% in 4Q25. Management’s continues to highlight the significant opportunity they have to convert their 470M+ weekly users to daily users. They also made it clear that they are prioritizing growing user engagement and time spent on the platform by allowing people to interact with communities and engage with other users without forcing them to log in. I think that this is good for the long-term health of the business and good for current advertising trends, albeit at the expense of the KPI that short-term investors are most focused on. Unfortunately, RDDT’s stock has not performed anywhere close to its business performance. The company’s stock is down -44% YTD and the stock is down by more than 50% relative to the all-time-high it made in September 2025. I struggle to find a reason for its terrible performance, especially since it never traded at an egregious multiple to begin with. I guess one can point to US “logged-in” DAUs falling -100K QoQ (less than 1%), but its hard to see how that can take away from a company that saw forward EBITDA revised up by 60%+ over the past year. Currently RDDT trades at 25x 2026 free cash flow and 16x 2027 free cash flow, an absolute bargain compared to the broader market before you even factor in RDDT’s best-in-market growth rate. Its very rate that the market gives you the opportunity to own a rapidly growing, highly profitable, network effect business model at such an attractive price. Below is a picture of RDDT’s stock price (white line) versus RDDT’s 2027 EBITDA estimate (blue line). In my experience jaws like this always close – given my expectation for 2027 EBITDA to continue to be revised up, it is highly likely this resolves itself with RDDT moving meaningfully (100%+) higher.