Connell A. Crooms🌹🤟🏿

WOW! FLORIDA! I'm hearing on the ground here in Florida that Democrats will likely outperform expectations here tonight. This is what 2 Republicans on the ground told me just now. They are frantic: Don't pay attention to the raw Republican-versus-Democratic turnout numbers. It's the Republican crossover vote and the No Party Affiliation voters who matter. Look at these numbers from a recent Florida poll: 🔵 REPUBLICANS CROSSING OVER TO DEMOCRATS: • 13% support Democrat David Jolly for governor. • 12% support Democrat Angie Nixon for Senate. 🔴 DEMOCRATS CROSSING OVER TO REPUBLICANS: • Just 3% support Republican Byron Donalds for governor. • Just 4% support Republican Ashley Moody for Senate. That's roughly THREE TO FOUR TIMES as much Republican crossover support, measured as a percentage of each party's registered voters. Now look at the voters who could make an enormous difference: No Party Affiliation (NPA) voters. In the 2024 presidential election, Florida's self-identified independent voters broke approximately: 🔴 Trump: 53% 🔵 Harris: 45% An 8-point Republican advantage. But in the latest RedBox Research polling for 2026, registered NPA voters are breaking: GOVERNOR: 🔵 David Jolly: 55% 🔴 Byron Donalds: 30% U.S. SENATE: 🔵 Angie Nixon: 54% 🔴 Ashley Moody: 29% That's a 25-point Democratic advantage among NPA voters in BOTH races in this poll, or a 33% swing! When you see Republicans leading Democrats in raw turnout, you're seeing how many people registered with each party have voted. You are NOT seeing whom they voted for. A registered Republican voting for David Jolly still shows up as a Republican in the turnout numbers. An NPA voter supporting Angie Nixon doesn't show up as a Democratic voter in those same numbers. And a Democratic candidate can outperform their party's registration numbers without a corresponding increase in registered Democratic turnout.

Abolishing property taxes lets Floridians actually own their homes outright instead of renting them from the government. End perpetual taxation and unleash true economic growth!

Possibly. Depends how big the registration gap ends up being and what the size of the persuasion is. Though I suspect if they were to get 70-30 then they’re going to get a good chunk of R defections with it

FLORIDA TURNOUT UPDATE | OCTOBER 27 Florida has now surpassed 3.3 million reported ballots, and Republicans are continuing to build their early-voting advantage. Republicans account for 1,324,948 ballots (40.03%), compared with 1,299,997 Democrats (39.27%). NPAs have cast 604,065 ballots (18.25%). Republicans now lead by 24,951 ballots. Their 143,868-ballot advantage in early voting has overtaken the Democrats’ 118,917-ballot lead in vote-by-mail returns. 31.45% of registered Democrats have already voted, compared with 23.33% of Republicans. That’s an 8.12-percentage-point Democratic turnout-rate advantage. That is a substantial difference, especially in a state where Republicans hold such an enormous registration advantage. The NPA electorate has already contributed more than 604,000 ballots. We have no way of knowing from turnout data alone how those voters are breaking, much less how many registered Republicans or Democrats may be crossing party lines - although, I have my assumptions/projections. Florida is giving us plenty of data to analyze, but not nearly enough to justify the certainty I’m seeing from people already predicting Election Day results.