Semi-Retired. If you going to keep liking my posts and reposting them, you might as well give me a follow. 1986 - Hated D.C., started software company for Hospitals 1981 - 1985, Reagan Admin, Special Assistant and Fixer to Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Labor 1980 - Reagan Campaign and Tax Policy Task Force Assistant 1976 - Mississippi Republicans for Reagan Campaign August 8, 1968 - Met Ronald Reagan for first time the evening after the last night of the Republican National Convention.

Does anyone see a pattern? If we could only figure it out 🤔

Those familiar with my account, know I have written a lot about tariffs. The Federal reserve released a study that virtually agrees with all of my writings since March 2025 on what will happen and how it works. Fed research on 125,000 household transactions finds 2025 tariffs were passed through by only 15–20% to retail prices (The supply chain ate a lot). That lifted prices of the “tariff affected” goods by only 1–2%. Household behavior still cut spending on those items by about 4% (three to four times the price rise) by buying less and switching to cheaper varieties. Most of what Americans buy is NOT in those categories. Food, energy, housing, and services have far less direct tariff exposure, so the hit to overall inflation is smaller than the 1–2% figure for exposed goods. Other Fed estimates put the contribution to core PCE in the 0.5–0.8 percentage-point range. A tariff is a one-time cost shock, not a permanent inflation engine. Once firms pass it through, it raises the price level; it stops adding to the inflation rate unless the tariff itself is hiked again. Pass-through in 2025 was gradual and policy kept shifting, so some of the effect spilled into early 2026—but the first wave was largely baked in after that. federalreserve.gov/econres/f…